For Richer or Poorer

Let us pretend for a moment that we were losing $70 Million a year because of a business venture we started. We'd all be pretty upset and... justifiably so. I mean, it isn't our fault that the team doesn't get more stadium revenue. Although... in the case of the Wilpons, it sorta IS their fault.

Take the case of Bobby Bonilla. The Mets could have paid off the rest of his contract, $5.9 Million dollars in 2000. Instead they differed the payment. They took a 10 year hiatus and then would pay Bonilla $1 Million dollars for 25 years. They did this because they were getting such large returns from Bernie Madoff that they stood to profit from having that $5.9 Million for the first 10 years... to cover that $25 Million dollar/25 year contract that kicked in this year AND THEN SOME. (Mind you, Bonilla is not the only case)

Now... let us believe in their innocence and that they simply thought that they were actually getting 8-12% returns from their magical friend of finance. If the Wilpons opened the books to the public, I wonder how much of the Met financial situation is caused by the ownership's investments and how much is the teams actual revenue.

Sandy Alderson announced yesterday that the Met payroll in 2012 would be between $100-140 Million dollars. That isn't bad... if it's closer to the 140 end of things, but in New York I shudder to think of the genuinely hateful response to the Wilpons crying pauper.

Should the Mets come close to spending in the 140 range you had better believe that the only name that the Mets should be spending that kind of money on is already on the team. (Do we really think Pujols will play RF?)

SAVE REYES

Public Enemy #1

The early voting for league LVP is in and by a resounding margin the Met ownership has entered into a 2-way tie with the McCourts atop the rankings. The MLB has already freed the Dodgers of the divorcing couple which means that the Wilpons are most likely going to move well ahead in the voting by the all-star break. If you haven't heard, I'll post a link:

Met Fans Sit Down

Basically, Wilpon, in an effort to restore his (potentially wrongfully/rightfully) defamed name decided to torpedo the only part of his empire that the average citizen cares about. Let's tally the damage:

Reyes:

"He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money. He’s had everything wrong with him. He won’t get it."

So now if the Mets want to TRADE Reyes, they no longer have the trading power of even feigning a desire to retain their talented SS.

Beltran:

"We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series [his 2004 postseason with the Astros]. He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was."

Another player we were HOPING to trade this season who we can now expect 30-35% less for. Thanks Fred, I can see how you became a business tycoon. Play the cards as far from your chest as possible right?

Wright:

"He’s pressing. A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar."

Come to the Mets, ownership can't wait to throw you under the bus. You think that any top talent wants to take a deal with this TOXIC ownership duo? Sure, the Mets can still pay for talent... oh wait... we don't have money anymore either? Well I guess perhaps treating your best players better might have been financial advice that Fred needed his buddy Madoff for.

Add to this the message to the fans. Hey kids! We don't have any superstars... go watch the Yankees. I suppose, in his defense, not many kids read the New Yorker.

The Mets (By way of Ike Davis):

"Good hitter. Shitty team—good hitter."

Awesome, hey... I just wanted to conclude my diatribe by saying that everyone not named Ike is a scum sucking loser with no right to play baseball. Way to rally the troops.

Let's see... lower the trade value of the two best trade chips Alderson has to work with, alienate the face of your franchise and insult the team. What's next, getting rid of all the team's training equipment? When does Terry Collins whip out the nude cardboard cut-out and start removing pieces with every win?

Mr. Springer, a knowledgeable Met fan put his rose glasses on and sees positives to the situation. He thinks that the ownership is long over-due for telling the players publicly that they don't value them. He sees this as potentially inspiring. So I'll take his inspiration and look at the positives.

The Dodgers don't have an Owner, perhaps we can just TRADE the Wilpons away.

In Short:

DUMP THE WILPONS

SAVE REYES

SAVE REYES

Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. Or... in this case... HIM. Jose Reyes has been on the Mets for the last 9 years and what better way to say, "Danke Schoen," to him then to keep him here for the next bunch? Maybe I'm over-reacting... but I feel a little like Jennifer Grey.

Maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe Reyes isn't such a good guy. After all, I get to blog, he gets a big fat pay check. But still, why should he get to go wherever he wants after the season? Why should everything work out for him? What makes him so goddamn special? Screw him!

I'm a Met fan and if I have to suffer through bad teams... shouldn't my favorite players? Maybe I went a bit too far for the sake of justifying quote manipulation. I'm just a little upset by the prospect of letting Jose slip through our fingers.

There is a point to be made, though. Why would he want to stay? Since 2006 have the Mets really given Reyes a great reason to stay? I mean... he loves his home in Long Island but there's another stadium that's commutable and not only have they won more frequently but they even have a growing wound at SS. Face facts, we haven't shown Reyes anything good.

Nothing - wha - what do you mean nothing good? We've seen everything good. We've seen the whole city! We went to a museum, we saw priceless works of art! We ate pancreas! Well.. I ate pancreas and pretended he was with me. People did look at me a little strangely as I spent the day hanging out with a cardboard cut-out. STILL! Doesn't our love mean anything?

Perhaps my love should. I'm not one of the fans who turned on Reyes for clapping and smiling and getting pumped. I think I'm not alone in loving Reyes in good times and bad. So... Faithful Met Fans... Are you with me?

If Reyes is traded Mr. Rooney wins.SAVE REYES

Up This Week:

Public Enemy #1 - Time to start the offensive.

Taking Ownership - Those with the bucks should not be passing them.

Alms - Do we deserve pity?

Minor Complications - Little right... LOTTA wrong.

Spending $60 Million

With $68.3 Mil plus probably $10-15 Mil in smaller contracts and arbitration the Mets have between $36.7-41.7 Mil to spend. The goal is to keep their payroll beneath $120 Mil. That couldn't be that hard. What would that look like?

Free Agent Targets:

Jose Reyes, SS (29) - Jose is already popular with Met fans. Likes where he's living and is the best player available to fill the vacancy at SS. Matt Cerrone has said before that beyond Reyes, who else would the Mets be able to go after? The key will be Length and salary. I'm not going to ask for a Home Team discount from Reyes for size but I'm going to hold my offer to 5 years. (5 Years, $70 Mil: $10M, $12M, $15M, $16M, $17M)

C.J. Wilson, SP (31) - Wilson may not be the most exciting name out their but he'd be gifted the benefit of Citi Field and be joining a rotation that would include Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese. He's not going to need to be an Ace, just a #3 pitcher. With the weaker pitching class hitting free agency I know that his price will be inflated but pitching is NEEDED. (3 Years, $27 Mil: $9M, $9M, $9M)

Jonathan Papelbon, RP (31) - Mets will need a closer and are the only "Big Market" team who is likely to pay for one. Even so, I don't think the Mets throw K-Rod money at a closer again no matter what. Still, the Mets need to throw a good amount of money for a better closer like Jonathan. (3 Years, $30 Mil: $8M, $10M, $12M)

George Sherrill, RP (35) - Nothing fancy, but nothing fancy is necessary. The Mets need a lefty and Sherrill is probably the best lefty reliever available for 2012. He could probably slot in as a third setup man on the staff but I'll leave him in the ranks of the middle relievers. The question is how big a contract can you give an aging lefty reliever? (2 Years, $6 Mil: $3M, $3M)

Javier Lopez, RP (34) - Here is another big move. I'm looking at signing TWO lefty relievers. Why? Well, because the Mets have been handicapped for too long by not having enough lefties in their bullpen. Most teams have 2-3 lefties to spot through a game to make the matchups favor them. The Mets need to run Tim Byrdak out there for 3 batters because they only have the one lefty. (I know O'Connor is on the team now, but do you count him? I don't.) (3 Years, $7 Mil: $3M, $2M, $2M)

From The Minors:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CL (L) - Captain Kirk is tearing up AAA and looking like he might replace Angel Pagan sooner than later. He's got SOME power and SOME speed but he's not Reyes or Davis. He looks like a 15 HR, 20 SB player who is a good fielder and solid all-around player. He projects as more of a corner OF with his speed but between he and Fernando Martinez both being fringe CF guys I think the OF defense won't suffer. Plus Angel moves back to the bench as the 4th OF guy.

Fernando Martinez, RF (L) - The forever prospect gets his legit shot at making the team. Because I'm the one writing this I'm going to say that he does succeed and in the spring both he and Nieuwenhuis push Angel Pagan into a reserve role. Fernando's power and production may not be the 30 HR range that I used to see... but... it could easily be above 20 and who knows how high from there.

Matt Harvey, SP (R) - Matt Harvey is still pitching in Port St. Lucie. Why am I projecting him into the starting rotation? With Mejia's injury and the extremely weak starting pitching market for 2012 Harvey has a shot to make the rotation next spring. It will be a fair competition between he, Cohoon and a few others to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Notice that I've cut ties with Mike Pelfrey before the season.

Mark Cohoon, SP (L) - Cohoon loses the battle with Harvey for a spot in the rotation but the finesse lefty is reliable enough to give a long relief job and a third lefty arm to the bullpen. Cohoon's style is well suited to long-relief as he should never be walking the ballpark and letting the game get out of hand (like Ollie Perez might. Cohoon could look to replace Dickey in 2013, though I give that nod to Jenrry Mejia.

Lineup: 8
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
3. C.J. Wilson, SP (L)
4. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
5. Matt Harvey, SP (R)
Bullpen: 7
CL - Jonathan Papelbon, RP (R)
SU - Taylor Buchholz, RP (R)
SU - Pedro Beato, RP (R)
MR - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR - Javier Lopez, RP (L) MR - George Sherrill, RP (L)
LR - Mark Cohoon, SP (L)

Bench: 5
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Angel Pagan, OF (S)
Lucas Duda, OF/1B (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Nick Evans, OF/1B/3B (R)

2012 Payroll: $113.7 Mil

YOU WANT MORE?!?

For the sake of this analogy Gruel is Jose Reyes and Oliver Twist is the Met fans. Also in this case the fat man with the pot of gruel and the loud voice is Met management crying poverty. Actually... they aren't crying poverty, that's simply what everyone else is saying. What is being said?

"The Mets don't have the MONEY to re-sign Jose Reyes."

Let me be the first to call B.S. on this. If the Mets are going to have a $120 Million dollar payroll they'll have just under $60 Million to spend before the re-sign arbitrate etc... With all arbitration assumed I'd estimate $45 Million still free. Is there no room for Reyes in that money? Wait... maybe they'll be too busy getting pitching.

• Chris Carpenter, 37
• Roy Oswalt, 34
• Ryan Dempster, 35
• C.J. Wilson, 31
• Edwin Jackson, 28
• Mark Buerhle, 33

Above is a small list of some of the BETTER starters available in free agency. All I can help seeing is that the Mets might as well save that $45 Million for 2013 if they want only pitchers... but while they're doing that, maybe they should spend part of it on one of the most popular players on the club.

Jeff Wilpon and company have legal woes and all of that, but they are not exactly going to send out a baseball team with a payroll beneath $100 Million in New York City. The next time you hear Evan Roberts talk about it on WFAN. Call up and call him out on his B.S. Then wait for Steve Somers to come onto the air, he's the only one I like.

Save Reyes!!!

Up This Week:

Let's Be Silly - I'm Gonna Spend Those $60 Million... and Have Some Fun.

Platoon - Visiting Turner and Murphy and Giving the New Platoon a Grade.

Re-Alignment - Like Any Good Mechanic I Have to Check the Rotation.

Minor Qualms - Let's Take the Rose Colored Specs Off, Shall We?

Peanuts and Cracker Jacks

All the amateur GMs in the world have gotten into trade fever with relation to Jose Reyes. Jose is having a good year and the Mets, in case you've been asleep... have not. Jose is in the final year of his contract in his prime baseball years and will demand something in the neighborhood of Carl Crawford money. Heck, with the SS position so thin he should probably get more. I listed the players before but with San Francisco in town there is one favorite who has clearly jumped out.

San Francisco has the best situation for looking at and acquiring Jose Reyes. They have a team that is expected to compete, they have an issue at short, they are hungry for offense and they could sure use some hitting. The question is, will they give enough? Sure, people will name what they think that Jose is worth but that is all meaningless to Met fans.

Jose is worth a lot to Met fans. He grew up here. He came up from the minors, delivered on his outstanding potential and became the spark of the franchise. The Mets do not come so close to the World Series without him. The Mets do not look nearly as good in general without him. Alderson might want to simply get the most bang for his buck, but Met fans will want more than that. We don't want to lose Reyes without getting something as meaningful back.

Miguel Tejada is the reason the Giants are so enthusiastic about trading for Reyes. Once upon a time I was telling my buddy Ross that Tejada was miles better than Jeter. (I've basically done this with every good short-stop to come along since) After a few years in Baltimore and Houston it looked like his days at short were at a close. Then the Giants give him a deal and slot him to be their everyday SS. It's 50% wishful thinking and 50% it's so crazy it just might work. Sadly, it hasn't. Does Miguel's defensive and offensive regression force the Giants to cave to the demands of Alderson and the rabid Met fans?

Before we get into things... I need to explain something to some people... KEITH. Keith Hernandez mentioned that you couldn't trade Reyes unless you get a Matt Cain or Matt Kemp in return. Sure... that makes total sense. Let me trade a young, talented major leaguer who is cheap and under team control for a talented star who's contract is expiring and will demand a fortune to stay. While it is conceivable that the Giants might think they have enough pitching without Cain, I can't see the Mets getting a young MLB stud for Reyes.

Once again, I'll dive into the rosters of Fresno and Richmond and see what I can find.

Fresno Grizzlies: AAA

Brandon Belt, 1B/OF - Trading Belt would anger as many Giant fans as trading Reyes would anger Met fans. This is GOOD. It should hurt Giant fans to acquire Reyes. Why would we want to accept a deal in which we didn't think we were getting someone they'd miss. Belt had a taste of the majors to start the year but was demoted after a slow start. Since his demotion he's put out a AAA OPS of 1.342 and an SLG of .765 which are both slightly inflated by the PCL. He's been moved to the OF so those who love Ike don't need to fret though he'd likely look ghastly in right field in Citi Field. Regardless I demand him first and foremost in a deal for Reyes.

Richmond Flying Squirrels: AA

Eric Surkamp, LHSP - Ranking 9th in the Giant's top 10, Surkamp is likely someone they WOULD be willing to part with. Surkamp is a lefty who gets a lot of strikeouts without throwing that hard. He looks to me like a safe pick for a middle of the rotation pitcher and after demanding Belt I don't think I can also demand an Ace. Well... I could... but I won't. Surkamp currently has 41 K's in 26.1 innings in AA and a very healthy 2.05 ERA. He doesn't give up too many walks or hits and looks like he could be a major leaguer later this season.

Charlie Culberson, 2B - Culberson is just so damn handsome... sorta like a Matthew McCaunoughey without the gross hygiene problems. Seriously, he's a pretty good ball player. He projects as a good hitting second baseman with some good power and some speed. I think that he might be a little less of a hitter than Havens but he's a darn bit healthier. Also, for those who love Murphy, he's more defensively sound etc... The big flaw in his game is the K's but that's true for most young players.

I probably also ask for Brandon Crawford, who hasn't played in 2011 yet (maybe he's hurt?) but he played in AA last year and projects as an okay hitter/fielder at SS.

So... I'm asking for a four player haul for Jose Reyes (though I'd gladly include Beltran or Rodriguez in the offer [They would both fit into the Giant team and help them go back-to-back]) if it would get the deal done. Would getting these four players make up for the loss of Reyes? Not at first. No matter what. I'd miss him too much.

Plus without Reyes in Citi Field the best reason to go to the game would be Peanuts and Cracker Jacks.

Keeping the Pace

With the Mets on a roll it seems like a good time to do some math to see what they are on Pace for. I mean, if everyone can stay relatively healthy... Note, these stats are just simple projections based on their production so far vs. how many at bats I think they COULD reach.

Jose Reyes, SS: 94/6/35/35/47 - Jose is on pace to have a good year with plenty of stolen bases and runs scored. However I was expecting more. It seemed to me that Reyes' projections would be better. He's really having a great early season and the numbers are merely GOOD. With Bay back in the lineup and with Murphy settling in for support, I'd expect the pace numbers to go up.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: 67/10/77/38/10 - I think I, Daniel Murphy and most Met fans will sign up for those numbers from Murphy. They aren't blow me away numbers, but they're solid numbers from a 2B. I won't go so far as to say that Murphy could exceed them, but I will say that he is capable of this kind of production.

David Wright, 3B: 116/32/97/77/32 - A 30/30 season? Gee... when you look at the fact David is a career hitter nearly 50 points higher then he's at, this production seems insane. Can he get these numbers? Sure. Can he exceed them? Maybe? You know... if Wright continues to hit well with Bay in the lineup and improves his batting average back to where it's usually sat, he could have TREMENDOUS numbers.

Carlos Beltran, RF: 85/20/66/39/0 - Beltran will steal a base. It's tough with basic mathematical projections to deal with someone who just hasn't tried something yet. Imagine if I were to project 0 HRs from Justin Morneau? Beltran's numbers are pretty solid but I think the RBI numbers should be a touch higher and if the knee flares up... everything could be much lower.

Jason Bay, LF: 118/24/71/47/0 - Okay... so Bay's small sample size skews the numbers and they look all sorts of strange. We're working with what we have. If Bay continued on this pace the Flushing Faithful would likely issue a pardon to Bay for 2010.

Ike Davis, 1B: 89/28/124/83/0 - So... the stolen base numbers are accurate. Could Ike be that good? I think he could be BETTER. I mean, I think Ike has the power to lead the team in homers so that 28 could easily be eclipsed by something on the brighter side of 35. The other numbers reflect Ike's improved discipline at the plate, which is hard to deny.

Angel Pagan, CF: 46/7/39/59/26 - I have to believe that Angel is better than this, but at the same time... I can't predict EVERYONE to have a good year. So if I can get those big years I've already listed above, I'd suffer with a diminished Pagan... at least until we promote Captain Kirk.

Josh Thole, C: 22/0/50/29/0 - Another victim of a slow start, Thole has proven to still be a clutch hitter and is learning to adjust to pitchers now that he's a known quantity. I would imagine that he'll exceed these numbers easily even losing additional playing time to Paulino's bat.

Minors Must Be Accompanied By Adult

With Reyes in the final year of his contract, the Wilpons in denial about their need to get out of Dodge and the Mets floundering at the worst record in baseball, I wanted to look at teams who might have a good package of players to offer the Mets. First I'll identify teams who have a need for Jose Reyes and who the Mets COULD trade with. Then I'll see who has the players in the farm to interest the Mets in MAKING a deal.

Why am I doing this on a Friday? Fridays are for minors and I'm looking into the minors for many other teams to find trade partners. If you want an update on the Met's minor leaguers, visit Toby's blog and check it out. The news has been good.

The Long List:

Arizona Diamondbacks - They have Stephen Drew. No
Atlanta Braves - They need a SS in 2012 and may like Reyes' future more than waiting for a prospect. The issue is that Atlanta is not going to trade good prospects to a division rival and the Mets are not going to trade Reyes to Atlanta. No
Baltimore Orioles - Hardy isn't the answer but they already have THE top SS prospect so I can't see them biting. No
Boston Redsox - Jed Lowrie is on fire and they ALSO have Jose Iglesias and too many guys who hit lead-off. Boston is a possibility if only because they can afford to move Iglesias for a surer thing. Yes
Chicago Cubs - They have Starlin Castro. No
Chicago White Sox - They have Alexei Ramirez. No
Cincinnati Reds - They have the need at SS and no great internal solution. Yes
Cleveland Indians - They have Asdrubal Cabrera and if they are buyers, I'd bet he's playing plenty well. No
Colorado Rockies - Troy Tulowitzki is there and that means it's obvious. No
Detroit Tigers - The Tigers finances are already stretched and they have a fine SS. No Florida Marlins - Hanley Ramirez is not being moved to make room for Jose. No Houston Astros - The Astros would love Bourn and Reyes hitting together but have no reason to spend in 2011. No
Kansas City Royals - Not after they traded for Alcides Escobar. No
Los Angeles Angels - Alright, so they have Aybar, and he's fine, but they'd love Reyes and they can make trades using a pretty solid farm. Yes
Los Angeles Dodgers - They have Furcal, but even so... Tom Gordon's son is ready to replace Rafael and Bud Selig is not looking to spend on a big long-term contract now that he controls the team. No
Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee is interesting but hard to see happening. They have the need for Jose, they'll be in contention, and they will likely free up money because Fielder will walk. Maybe
Minnesota Twins - They are in an awful funk but even assuming they recovered and were buyers I don't think Reyes is a Twins-type move. No
New York Yankees - Derek Jeter has a few more years left but do the Yankees want to deal with his declining range and arm? Yes
Oakland Athletics - They could easily be in contention and looking to upgrade over Cliff Pennington. Would the Athletics part with prospects like Grant Green and a pitcher to get Reyes on their team? Maybe
Philadelphia Phillies - Rollins is set to walk and DEFINITELY in the growing twilight of a good career. Alderson would be assassinated if he made a move like that. No
Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates spend money? Well... let's just think about the fact that their lineup is starting to have signs of growth and that they do have an opening at short for Reyes. Maybe (Probably Not)
San Diego Padres - Jason Bartlett is all they can afford at that position. No
San Francisco Giants - With Miggy not a long-term answer for anyone, I'd imagine that the Giants will be on top of the Mets to see what can be worked out. Yes
Seattle Mariners - I can't see the Mariners as buyers so I can't even make this a thought. No
St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis has bigger problems but if they are close they might offer a good package for Reyes to win again before Pujols leaves. Probably Not
Tampa Bay Rays - Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez seem to not be the greatest fits for the team and they'd love Reyes to hit in front of Longoria but the money is an issue and a long-term deal is unlikely. Maybe
Texas Rangers - Andrus is already like Reyes but younger. No
Toronto Blue Jays - On the one hand they need a lead-off hitter like Reyes but on the other they are squared away with Yunel Escobar. No
Washington Nationals - Not with Ian Desmond. No

The Short List:

Boston Red Sox - The biggest reasons Boston wouldn't make a trade are the success of Jed Lowrie and the presence of Jose Iglesias. It does seem to follow logic of recent Boston teams that trading for Reyes would at least be an option. The concept requires Lowrie to not be doing well and Iglesias not ready to help with a playoff push, but it's possible. The Mets should not get TOO excited if Iglesias is the big part of the trade package as I'm not sold on him being much more of a hitter than Ruben Tejada.
Cincinnati Reds - Zack Cozart doesn't strike me as a replacement to Reyes or anything to hinge a trade on. HE DOES have a mix of power and speed but he's not going to turn into Troy Tulowitzki. The average looks like it'll be around .250 in the majors and I don't know how well the other numbers will translate.
Los Angeles Angels - Brandon Wood is probably not going to excite the Mets too much, but he might be the logical choice as a part of a larger package. Though L.A. could easily also go with an offer that included the safer Erick Aybar. The Mets would need to hinge the package on other prospects. Don't you dare mention Mike Trout, they aren't trading Tim Salmon's illegitimate son. However the Mets might inquire on Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Walden and others.
Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers don't have a good SS prospect to match but I suppose Baseball America named Scooter Gennet 2B/SS their #4 prospect for 2011. Frankly the top 4 are all doing miserably, but Milwaukee is doing well and could use Reyes so I wouldn't count them out.
New York Yankees - The Mets would have their choice of lovely catching prospects but that doesn't help when they'd need pitching and a SS. The good news is that the Yankees have several pitchers of note. Now... two of them have had bad starts but I'd wager to say the Yankees would be in the mix if Reyes were available.
Oakland Athletics - Oakland has Grant Green in their farm and he's a good prospect. That might preclude them from dealing for Reyes alone. What Oakland doesn't have is a "Star". People don't line up for Kevin Kouzmanoff. Oakland's pitching staff is solid and they ALWAYS have more prospects down the pipe. If I'm the Mets Mr. Green MUST be part of the deal if I trade.
Pittsburgh Pirates - They have two things going for them right now. They have a talented farm and they are starting to build a talented team. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen are a good core, but imagine adding a star like Reyes to the team and the kind of boost he'd be to the fans. On the side of what they have to offer, look at Chase D'Arnaud who doesn't WOW me and a boat load of pitchers including Jeff Locke but excluding James Taillon... they aren't trading him.
San Francisco Giants - I've come up with two SS's Brandon Carwford and Ehire Adrianza and a pitcher, Zack Wheeler. Crawford looks like the better prospect and Wheeler looks good but expendable in an over-stocked pitching system. Crawford isn't ready for the majors yet and Tejada is not going to last, so it might make sense to see a swap for the Mets nabbing Crawford and pitching and the Giants getting Reyes. Maybe we could include K-Rod as the Giants wouldn't need to let him close?
Tampa Bay Rays - Plenty of reasons to not do it. They don't have a great shot at holding onto Reyes and they are in the toughest division in baseball. HOWEVER, if they got him he'd make the team an instant top contender again. The other half against the likelihood is that they have TWO good SS prospects. Do the Rays get itchy for another run at glory and cut a deal. They have the pieces to trade and could easily hold onto either Tim Beckham or Hak-Ju Lee and let Reyes walk. I could see them thinking about it.

Conclusion:
I'd say that the Giants and Reds probably match up best in terms of need/offer. With pretty good prospects in their systems at SS they can both make trades to appeal to the Mets. Perhaps later this year I'll venture what the packages offered might be.

Maximum Value

Different hitters are better suited for different spots in the lineup. As Terry Collins tries out various variations, I just wanted to see where the Mets might be MAXIMIZING the value of their players.

David Wright, 3B: Wright cannot lead off. He's a touch too strike-out prone to be a pure OBP guy. Though... if you look at him hitting second it's not so bad. He's fast and usually sees at least 3 pitches in an at-bat. Frankly, we all know that Wright is made for the 3rd spot. He's fast and hits a ton, but he's become as free swinging as a #4 hitter. This means that if not for Wright's legs... he'd probably be moved back to the #5 spot. (Max Value: 2nd/3rd/4th/5th)

Jose Reyes, SS: Reyes is a GREAT lead off hitter, but is that the "BEST" spot for him on the Mets? Well... yeah, it is. He could hit second, but nobody on the team is going to be better at moving on the bases and he's not the most disciplined swinger. Though I will say that Jose COULD be a #3 hitter (on the right team). Imagine if Boston could get Crawford and Ellsbury to hit. Carl and Jose hit similarly, if the Mets had Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury on the roster... yeah... I'd have to hit Reyes 3rd. (Max Value: 1st/3rd)

Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran's legs are not what they used to be but he's still not Ike Davis on the base-paths. Beltran can't lead off and his power and so-so average don't lend themselves to the #2 spot. You could still hit Carlos 3rd (The Mets might want to try it) and the 4th spot still works to utilize his mix of talents, but what about late in the order. What about putting Carlos BEHIND Bay and Davis? It doesn't hurt a ton to have Carlos bat 5th or 6th, but maximum value isn't there. (Max Value: 3rd/4th)

Ike Davis, 1B: Davis has the speed to NEVER hit above 4th in a lineup. That's okay because he's got the power and hitting skill to hit 4th or 5th. Hitting Davis any earlier cripples your speed on the base-paths and hitting him later than 6th wastes his power. I don't really think it matters WHERE among 4, 5 & 6 you put Ike, but I think you HAVE to put him there. (Max Value: 4th/5th/6th)

Jason Bay, LF: When Jason Bay returns we could potentially think of him as a mix of power and speed. It's not lead-off speed, but he can swipe a bag if he gets into the right situation. Bay, like Wright is a bit of a free swinger and a touch streaky. Unlike Wright, his speed doesn't force him to the front of the lineup. His power (as a Met) doesn't lend itself to the clean-up role either. Bay would fit nicely in most roles from #5-#7. (Max Value: 5th/6th/7th)

Angel Pagan, CF: Angel is mired in an AWFUL slump, but let us pretend he's the Angel we know and love. THAT Angel Pagan is designed to hit in the lead-off spot or 2nd in the lineup. He's got the speed and bat to make those roles work. Terry Collins keeps throwing Angel into the middle of the lineup... I don't see it. Angel is not a good #5/#6 hitter. He's got some power, but demoting him to that spot is dumb. If he's not hitting for average in the front of the lineup, put him in the 7th or 8th spot until he comes around. (Max Value: 1st/2nd)

Daniel Murphy, 2B: Murphy has SOME speed but can't lead-off. Daniel can hit 2nd but really... he's not a front of the lineup guy. Terry Collins moved Angel out of the 2-hole and has tried Murphy out there. The issue is that Murphy is FAR better suited to hitting 6th or 7th than Angel. He's more of an RBI hitter than an OBP hitter so it makes sense for Murphy to be there to protect the back of the core.

Josh Thole, C: Josh Thole proved yesterday that he could be a #2 hitter ala Paul LoDuca. He has patience and can slap singles and put wood on the bat when he needs to. He's not fast but he does have considerable value in the #2 hole. In fact, Thole's BEST value might be there. Though he doesn't hurt you hitting 7th or 8th. Hitting 7th or 8th he's merely an annoying slap hitter in the latter part of a lineup. (Max Value: 2nd/7th/8th)

Willie Harris, LF: I REALLY see Willie Harris as ONLY an alternate but if he's playing there is one spot he's clearly best suited for. Harris is an ideal #2 hitter. He looks at pitches and can hit with people on base. In fact if Harris could not hit second based on value, I'd probably bat the pitcher 8th and him 9th. (Max Value: 2nd)

Brad Emaus, 2B: Emaus is supposed to be an OBP machine. He's supposed to make good contact too. He's also supposed to be a better fielder than Daniel Murphy. Can you tell I'm not an Emaus fan? Anyway, Emaus if he hit as advertised would make sense hitting 2nd or 8th. in the 2-hole he can see extra pitches and get on base for the core of the lineup. In the 8th spot he should at least be good for clearing the pitchers spot. I'm pretty sold on the Mets returning Emaus to Toronto before the end of May. (Max Value: 2nd/8th)

Met Lineup vs. RHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
4. David Wright, 3B (R)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Met Lineup vs. LHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Brad Emaus, 2B (R)

Up This Week:

25 Other Things: 25 Things that might distract you from the foibles of the Met's 25 MLB players.

Generation K 2.0: Mejia, Harvey, Familia, Holt and others look to be what Isringhausen never was.

Bay It Ain't So: With Bay potentially back, let's start the micro-scope on his Met career.

Minority Report: Who has deflated my hopes and dreams?

You Might Want To Check That Out

When your "Check Engine" light pops up, what do you do? Are you like my sister and I? Do you ignore it until something actually seems wrong? Do you take it to a garage and have the work on it? Do you break out the jacks and take a look on your own? It's usually a good idea to check these things out. Before my father blows his own gasket, NO, my car is fine. I thought it would be a good thing to take a quick check on the Mets. Sure the car has only been on the road for two weeks but lets see how she's holding up.

Checking Your Oil

"Hey Dad, why do we check the oil?"

"Well son... do you remember how the engine in your first car cracked in half and burned out?"

"Yeah."

"That's why."

"Oh..."

For this analogy, what is the oil if the Met team is the car? Well a team's engine is powered by pistons and most cars have 4, 6 or 8. Most baseball teams have 5, and we call them starters. The goal is to keep these starters healthy so they can make 30+ starts a year and pitch 6-7 innings a game. You keep the starters healthy by giving them breaks and protecting them with relievers.

As you've heard the Mets have LOTS of relievers right now. Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell, Taylor Buchholz, Jason Isringhausen, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, D.J. Carasco and Ryota Iggarashi make up an 8 man bull-pen. The issue is that our starters, well.. Pelfrey and Niese... have been burning up too quickly and this has left the bullpen taxed.

The day off helps but I expect another oil swap in the next three days.

Testing The Shocks

Actually, the Mets have been pretty good in this department. Beltran is healthy, Reyes is healthy, Pagan is healthy and I haven't heard Luis Castillo complain about an injury for almost a blessed month (might have to do with him not playing on any one's team). The Mets have more than a few guys who you worry about their legs and their overall leg health. For now... all is quiet and quiet is good.

Replacing Break Pads

The key to defensive driving is your breaking. The Met breaks need work. They have lost at least two or three games because of sloppy defense and mental lapses. The odd thing is that I can't blame any of it on Daniel Murphy. That means that the Mets are getting gaffes from some of the surer hands in the field. (Well... one was Duda, but you get the point.) Terry Collins is supposed to be "Old School" and I hope that means he can get the Mets to be a little better about the basic defensive fundamentals.

Secret Weapon

Do we have a secret weapon in our arsenal. Can we push the "Go Go" button and flash from last to first on the supernatural chemical power of illegal engine enhancements? Ask Manny Ramirez.

Actually the Mets DO have some not-so-secret weapons they could try:

Jason Bay - Not the secret weapon I'd necessarily bank a season of success on, but he's better than Willie Harris or Scott Hairston. Jason Bay should provide and offensive boost to the lineup when he returns later this month. The key will be, seeing how much power and production he ACTUALLY provides. 2010 numbers will NOT cut it with me, the Mets or the Major Leagues.

Johan Santana - Santana will not be back until June (at the earliest) and that means that he's not a quick fix by any stretch. HOWEVER... if the Mets are still close in June/July then they have a pretty good "Go Go" button to press. The key will be that Santana is too valuable to hurt if 2011 is only a dream. They may want to save their Ace for 2012 and I can't blame them if they'd want to.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia has only pitched 1 game this season but 6 innings without giving up a run is a pretty good sign. Only 3 hits, 2 walks and 6 K's are also pretty good signs. Mejia is going to come up for the Mets in 2011. The question is, WHEN? The Mets will NOT bring him up for a spot start. Not with Dillon Gee around and pitching pretty well. The Mets will wait until he's ready to hold down a job for keeps. I love the idea of bringing up Mejia when Santana returns. It takes the pressure off both of them and that would be nice.

Matt Harney - The people at MmlB are not going to be happy with me. They only read the blog when I beg them, so I'll just avoid doing that today. Matt Harvey is so far from the majors he doesn't have a head-shot with a team cap. Yet after two FLAWLESS starts in the minors (racking up 17 K's in A+) he looks like he's a pretty good "Fast Track" Candidate. He's 22, pitched in college, has great stuff and is blowing away the talented bats in advanced A. Even the conservative Minor League evaluator would project Harvey to move up to AA in 2011. Might this mean that he could see the Majors in 2011? YES, it might. This isn't Sandy Alderson's M.O. but you have to imagine that if Harvey has this level of success in Binghamton, the Mets will have to think about how close his major league future might be.