Waiting For Lefty

Pedro Feliciano is a Yankee now and the biggest vacancy left by his absence is from the left side of the mound. The Mets have Parnell and Acosta and Alvarez and Beato and Iggarashi and Isringhausen but something that none of them can do... is pitch lefty.

The Contestants:

Oliver Perez: Perez is about as popular with Met fans as Miguel Cabrera is with MADD (Mother Against Drunk Driving). He's basically been a 36 Million dollar void since signing two off seasons ago and the Mets REALLY wish they could get that money back. Reports thus far from camp are that he's pitching well. Now... he's going to get a shot to win the #4 or #5 rotation spot, but looking at Perez and all his stuff, if he can throw strikes... he really might make a pretty good LOOGY.

Chris Capuano: Like Perez, Capuano is fighting to start. Unlike Perez he's pitched relief and shown that his skills lend themselves to being a lefty specialist. Add to this a desire to protect his arm that is still referred to as recovering and you might have the perfect candidate to be that LOOGY. Or... as he has some stamina... maybe he'll be the second lefty in the pen and be the Long Reliever? Either way I have to think that Capuano will be in the pen.

Taylor Tankersley: Tankersley is young-ish and has a good arm but I think he's looking at a fight. Capuano has the edge if he doesn't make the rotation and most people point to Byrdak as the more likely LOOGY if the Mets opt for a PURE RP guy. I'm hoping Taylor will be fine waiting in AAA if they don't need him right away because I think he WOULD get called up when the need does arise. That said, he could just flat-out win the job this spring.

Tim Byrdak: Byrdak is the current favorite to be penciled into the role. He's a veteran and is that SAFE option. Byrdak has 4 straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA to back his candidacy. Also in his favor are his FAR superior numbers purely against left handed hitters. If I were asked to bet, I'd bet on Tim winning the LOOGY by a good safe margin.

Pat Misch: Misch isn't a great LOOGY guy. He's not so superior vs. lefties than righties and he's not that impressive a pitcher overall. With all of that said I think Misch is going to join Gee in AAA and be playing for time as the #6 pitcher while Santana is hurt. I happen to like Misch more than Gee but I might over-value lefties.



Mike O'Connor: You probably have never heard of this guy. He's a minor-leaguer who the Mets got last year and someone who showed some talent towards the end of the season. He needs to pitch better than any of the numbers I've seen on him indicate that he can to win the job, but the Mets insist he's in the running to don't count him 100% out. If there ever was a dark horse... it was Mike.

Survey Says: Tim Byrdak as LOOGY (Capuano as LRP)

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Celebrity Match-Ups

Jose Reyes ... Meet ... Daniel Gibson (Cleveland Cavaliers)

David Wright ... Meet ... Frankie Muniz (Malcolm in the Middle)

Ike Davis ... Meet ... Josh Randall (Actor: Scrubs and Greek)

Hole-y Baseball Bats Batman!

Is there a hole in David Wright's swing, or has he felt to much pressure to generate the teams offense all on his own? Whatever the reason, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that David Wright has developed a habit of swinging and missing. This has led to lower walks and extended streaks of bad hitting. This in turn leads people to question whether David is the super-star the Mets need or if they should look to trade him for young talent and start over.

Look at the progression:

2006: .311 / 26 HR / 116 RBI / 66 BBs / 113 Ks
2007: .325 / 30 HR / 107 RBI / 94 BBs / 115 Ks
2008: .302 / 33 HR / 124 RBI / 94 BBs / 118 Ks
2009: .307 / 10 HR / 72 RBI / 74 BBs / 140 Ks
2010: .283 / 29 HR / 103 RBI / 69 BBs / 161 Ks

So what happened to Wright after his most powerful season? The short answer is: Citi Field. David Wright struggled to figure out the new stadium and began to "Press" on the road. Regardless of how true that is, I think that there are a number of other elements that contributed to the struggles.

I'm All Alone: Beltran caught the injury bug in 2009 and carried right through into 2010 with limited at-bats. It would appear that David Wright is not a one-man band and needs some support around him. Thar means that a healthy Beltran, resurgent Bay and a developing Davis should all contribute to Wright having an up year.

Catch The Streak: Back in 2007, David Wright had 1 month where he hit less than .290, in 2008 he slumped from May to June but not terribly, in 2009 he hit an absurdly bad .223 for a month and in 2010 he suffered 3 months where he hit below .260. He simply cannot get that lost for THAT long. I think that Jerry Manuel and Willie Randolf did not do enough to get David turned around quicker during his slumps.

Play The Count: David Wright is GREAT at hitting when a pitcher is behind. The same is not true when a pitcher gets ahead. The difference is... David used to excel at hitting when the tides were even. He hit only .177 when the count was 2-2 but if he could draw that full count his average would sky-rocket to .300+. In the past 3 years that has not been true. David needs to re-establish his comfort level at full count and use that comfort to bring his OPS back into the Super-Star echelon we expect from him.

In short, does David have a hole in his swing? Yes. Can this be fixed? God I hope so.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

O' Johan Where Art Thou?

Experts predict Johan Santana will not be pitching with the Mets until June. HOWEVER, Mets fans must understand that pitching AT ALL in 2011 is not a guarantee. How he'll pitch when he returns... is not a guarantee. The only thing the Mets are assured... is that he'll cost a lot of money.

I like Johan, and always have. He's a smart guy and a gutsy pitcher. He has a good work ethic, is a role model and a team leader. What I don't like is paying for pitchers who aren't ACTUALLY going to pitch for me.

If he does pitch for the Mets... how important is it, that he ACTUALLY pitches in 2011?

Will the Mets be contenders? Odds say no way. So... wouldn't it be better to have a healthy Johan in 2012? Maybe. However if the Mets want to play the market and get some bang for their buck... perhaps this might appeal to them.

By no means am I trying to say below that the Mets NEED to trade Johan. Or that the Yankees would necessarily want him. Or that these are the players I see being dealt. Or that this is in anyway a likely scenario. All I am trying to say is that the Mets might be able to trade with a team that is in Buyer mode and a little desperate for starting pitching. In this case I do see the Yankees as likely people to be in this boat.

The New York Mets Trades:

Johan Santana, SP (L)
Carlos Beltran, OF (S)

To The New York Yankees For:

Ivan Nova, SP (R)
Brett Gardner, OF (L)

The Yankees are in a rare situation where they are off-season losers. They didn't get Plan A: Cliff Lee (Philly), Plan B: Carl Crawford (Boston) or Plan C: Zack Greinke (Milwaukee). The Yankees have Nova and some more distant (higher ceiling) pitching prospects, they have an inexpensive and talented young OF, they have a gaping hole in talent after C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes, and they have enough money to shrug off the financial burden of adding a 1-year rental of Beltran and the overall contract of the often injured Johan Santana.

The deal is an example... not really a specific to focus upon. All I an saying is that Johan Santana's biggest contribution by pitching in 2011 could be pitching for another team all together.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Tis The Season

Spring training is getting into gear with all of the players now at camp. It won't be long before there are split-squad games and then... actual baseball. With the season upon us I get a little misty eyed and think of Spring Training's past. I think of the top prospects I watched: Jose Reyes, David Wright, Lastings Milledge, Fernando Martinez, Fernando Martinez again... and Ike Davis.

Who will be the big story this year?

Jason Bay re-emerging as a legit bat?

Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez being sacrificed to the great God of Death and destruction?

Maybe it's who will not be back in 2012?

Let's hope that we have more happily ever afters and less... dropped pop-ups against the Yankees.

This Week:

The Road To Recovery: Johan Santana, when will he be back?

The Wrong Kind of K-Machine: Will David Wright strike-out woes end or get worse?

Look-A-Likes?: Celebrity Look-a-Likes.

Waiting For Lefty: Name that LOOGY.

Who Is Ike?

I don't think that Ike Davis is much of a singer... or that he's a drug user... or that he'll marry Tina Turner and abuse her. Some people see Ike Davis and see Adam LaRoche: a streaky power hitter who is good but not great. Some people see John Olerud who was an amazing talent in a goofy batting helmet. I see someone slightly different. Let us take a peek at the numbers, shall we?

Ike Davis:

Adam LaRoche:

John Olerud:

Lets try something on for a second... There we go, what do you think? Okay, so Ike has shown more power than Keith, but that was a different era in baseball. Both sparkle defensively and while Keith was not a 30 HR guy like Ike, he did power the middle of the lineup and provide a steady bat. Click on the image below to take a look.

Keith Hernandez:
Ike vs. Adam - Ike already reach LaRoche last season. Only... with a whole lot more defense. However why would we assume that Davis has peaked and peg him as an Adam LaRoche. Sure... the comparison works today but the hope with young players is that they develop.

Ike vs. John - God I wish... Ike Davis is not the same type of hitter Olerud was. Olerud was a tremendous contact hitter AND a stout defender. I think that Olerud and Ike have little actually in common.

Ike vs. Keith - You know... now that I see him with the mustache... Keith's numbers moved into the future 20 years might look pretty similar... depending on inflation. If I need to make a comparison I make it here because of what I saw from Ike last year and what Keith gave the Mets in their lineup. Both players provided the same type of lift and I think it's the most apt comparison.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

The Mets of the Future

The Mets have a new man at the helm and he likes to keep the wallet from opening too frequently. That is good in general, but does it mean that the Mets payroll will dwindle to the ranks of the middle 20 teams of baseball or does it just mean that the money the Mets typically spend (bottom of the top 5 payrolls) will just be spent better?

2012: We know the story, 40 Mil comes off the books (as long as K-Rod doesn't close a certain number of games...) yes whatever. 40 Mil is good, but what can it buy us? The Mets will likely be letting Jose Reyes reach free agency, this means that if the Mets don't have an in-house backup plan, almost half of that is going to Jose. Add in the raises for a number of the players and the Mets could be left with 10 or so million to spend on NEW talent. That isn't SO bad, it's just not SO good either.

The Mets COULD go a different direction with Jose. Move Ike Davis into the outfield and have God awful defense... or something of that nature. Actually let's get it out there... If you want Pujols... know this: The Mets will trade Davis to make room and fix the actual problem of no pitching. That isn't an awful solution as no great free agent SP's are available this winter. Know also that Pujols might mean no Jose and that it would require the exact kind of contract Sandy Alderson opposes.

2013: Almost no additional money comes off the books in 2013 but do you know what DOES happen? David Wright enters the option year of his contract. That means David Wright goes from making 16 million to upwards of 20. That's another giant contract but one I assume Alderson will be forced to hand out. It will also likely be the last Met year for Johan Santana who has proved a little too injury prone for his contract's terms.

2014: Basically all the big money on the table today can be off the books for 2014. If the Mets wanted to cut all ties with major players and get their payroll below that of the Pittsburgh Pirates they could manage it by 2014. Jason Bay comes off the books, Johan Santana is gone... this would mean that quite a few other players also left and the Mets failed to retain Jose Reyes, David Wright, and other young players currently on the Big Club. Hopefully by 2014 the Mets can roll out the HOJO-BOT 5000 and the laser pistol and super shoulder I equipped him with.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.