Prospectin' 2:

Taking another look at the "minor-league" players who are making a splash in camp. I'm focusing on the positives because with a possible flood coming towards my house for the second year in a row. I think looking at the good is warranted.

Matt Den Dekker - Age 23 - Position CF - A+/AA: Den Dekker has not had enough chances this spring to do anything meaningful. He is 2 for 3 in his EXTREMELY limited at-bats, but 3 ABs doesn't prove anything. Matt will likely wind up in Port St. Lucie or Binghamton (wherever they need a CF).

Fernando Martinez - Age 22 - Position RF - AAA/MLB: Martinez has been a prospect for a LONG time. HOWEVER, he's 22 and in the most advanced level of the minors and if you've watched this spring... he's hitting. Through 17 at-bats he's hitting an absurd .412 and slugging a robust .706. What ACTUALLY excites me is this little ratio 3 : 4. (3 Walks to 4 K's) THAT is a good sign and a sign that makes me believe that Fernando WILL replace Beltran in the OF either after this season, a trade or an injury. Health is still a major and legitimate concern.

Ruben Tejada - Age 21 - Position SS/2B - AAA/MLB: Tejada has hit well this spring. Evidenced by his 3 RBIs, he's also been clutch. His defense is great and if he can hit over .275 he's a major league quality middle infielder but unless he learns to swipe a bag... I refuse to be excited. Ruben will be in AAA unless he beats Murphy, Emaus, Castillo and Turner for the starting 2B job.

Nick Evans - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: Evans has hit his way from irrelevant to problematic. It's a good thing AND a bad thing. Evans is now looking like he deserves a roll on the major league club. On top of this he has no options left. The issue is going to be the Mets acquisition of Scott Hairston and Willie Harris. Evans just doesn't fit onto a 5 man bench. Collins could run with a 6 man bench, but there are few enough bullpen spots.

Lucas Duda - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: If Duda or Evans could play CF the Mets would not have signed Harris and Hairston. Duda deserves a spot on the bench as the lefty power bat but he has options and will go to AAA.

Daniel Murphy - Age 25 (for now) - Position 1B/3B/2B: This spring Murphy has shown he can still hit and that he's a capable 3B. He has played fine at 2B but has yet to be challenged. When he finally gets that double-play opportunity... I hope it goes well.

Pat Misch - Age 29 - Position SP/RP - AAA/MLB: Misch is better than he's shown but not excessively so. He gives up too many hits but doesn't walk many. He's also miles ahead of Dillon Gee right now.

The Big C:

I went with my wife to see Lombardi at Circle in the Square yesterday and FIRST... Go see it. Great play, great acting and the best theater in Manhattan. SECOND it made me think: I always thought of coaches and managers as pretty useless. Do coaches etc... have a REAL ability to make their teams win? Or... do they just manage relief pitching and bench players?

Obviously Lombardi has some mystique attached to him. If only there were a coach who was out there in my lifetime who seemed to single-handedly turn a team around...

Jacques Lemaire was brought back by the Devils after the team got off to it's worst start in over 15 years. John MacLean, a former player of Lemaire's and a former assistant to him, was fired and Lemaire came back. Then... the all-star break came and went and something funny happened. The Devils started winning. Not just winning 2 out of every 3 (which would be quite good) but going 22-2-2 and moving from playoff irrelevance... to playoff spoiler... to playoff long-shot... to playoff contender. Now... the Devils are still a long way from reaching the playoffs for the up-teenth time since Brodeur came up from the minors.

What is the secret? Is it saying, "Ya know," in every press conference 20-40 times? More importantly, can Terry Collins harness it?

In Lombardi there is a line (I'm going to butcher it, but here goes):

"Once Sunday came, Vince, was the least important man on the sidelines. Other than calling 1 or 2 plays he just sat back and let his team play. They were so well prepared for every situation that they didn't need him."

That, ladies and gentleman, is the point of Spring Training. That, is the be-all and end-all of coaching. You need to teach your players how to handle everything so they simply do it... instinctively. Is Collins the next Vince Lombardi? Is he the next Jacques Lemaire? I'll settle for him simply being able to manage the bullpen, but I'll hope that he can do for the Mets what Lombardi did for Green Bay and what Lemaire has done for the 2011 Devils.

This Week:

Prospectin': I continue to evaluate the Spring Training progress of the up and coming Met players. Bet I mention Evans, Duda and Martinez once or twice.

Over/Under: I take a look at some statistics and predict whether the Mets will beat their predicted results or not.

A Meager 2012: What would the Mets look like in 2012 if they signed NO free agents?

The Amazing Race: Updating Everyone on the 2B, Bench, Rotational and Bullpen races.

And They're Off!

There are four battles currently being waged in the Mets Spring Training Camp. Who will take the 5 available spots on the major league bench? Who will make the rotation? Who will make the bullpen? Who will become the starter at second base? Thus far, we have a few things we KNOW and a few things seem clearer.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely Out:

Luis Castillo - No, he's not definitely off the team but he's not going to stick with the Mets as a bench player. Compare Castillo's ability to play 2B with Murphy, Emaus, Turner and Hu... who can all play multiple positions and tell me who is going to make the bench.

Who's Definitely In:

Ronny Paulino - It's a bit of a duh, though Mike Nickeas will be the guy who starts the year backing up Thole.

Scott Hairston - Hairston is capable of playing all three OF positions and while Harris has the better overall glove, Scott is the one who doesn't have a minor league contract.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - He's played GOOD 3B, can play adequate 1B and looked okay at 2B. He still probably wins the starting job but he's got a great bench skill set and I don't think the Mets would let that slip away.

Nick Evans - He's played himself back into the legit picture of being on the bench. Collins likes him, he's got power and he's out of options. This means that if the Mets don't make room, he's going to be taken. As much as I like Hairston's bat, I'd prefer not losing Evans who has much more potential.
Stock Down: Chin-Lung Hu - Wow! The kid can field. He can also hit weak grounders to the infield. It's rough to give a spot to a guy who is as close as anyone to an automatic out.

The Rotation:

Who's Definitely Out:

Olliver Perez - The Mets have made it official. We have seen Ollie start his last game for the Mets. He's still alive in the race to be a reliever but even that is a bit iffy given that Ollie is as reliable a pitcher as Ozzie Osbourne is reliable to get the words to the National Anthem correct.

Who's Definitely In:

Mike Pelfrey - Ace until Santana returns.

Jonathan Niese - Looked like he might be the Mets top pitcher to start the season.

R.A. Dickey - Looked sharp and in command.

Stock Up:

Chris Young - He starts today but the buzz is that his velocity is back up a bit and he's got a firm hold of the #4 spot right now.

Chris Capuano - Mets seem attached to him relieving but he's pitched well this whole time. I think he'll get a start next week.

Stock Down:

D.J. Carrasco - He's got to worry about making the bullpen at this point.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Francisco Rodriguez - He's the closer and that is a lock.

Bobby Parnell - He may not win the 8th inning job or be the closer of the future but he's got a spot in the pen with his name on it.

Stock Up:

Pedro Beato - Beato has an electric arm and the Mets have liked him for a long time. They DO NOT want to let Beato slip away. Beato has the inside track right now to make the team.

Jason Isringhausen - Jason will retire if he doesn't make the team. I like his chances and I love that he has 6 pitches to hurl at you. He might work his way into that 8th inning job.

Ryota Iggarashi - Iggy was a disappointment in 2010 but he's impressed his coaches in 2011 and might be a part of the mix.

Chris Capuano - Right now, Chris looks like he could win a rotation spot but he'll make the bullpen before not getting ANY job.

Tim Byrdak - The only pitcher I've seen come in and inherit runners. I'd say Byrdak is winning that LOOGY race.

Stock Down:

Manny Alvarez - Alvarez will go back to the minors and probably close for AAA Buffalo. He's got talent and a strong arm but he's just not ready.

Manny Accosta - Accosta still has a shot and I think he's a good reliever. I question if HE believes that too.

Olliver Perez - Ollie had an awful outing and a passable outing. In his favor, the Mets owe him $12 Million. Against him, every fan of the Mets, the fact he's not experienced as a relief pitcher and physics.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has only had one start at 2nd but it went well and that is what matters. It's the first step towards him winning the position (as most fans think he will).

Ruben Tejada - Somebody must have taken issue with me calling him a BPAB (Bench Player At Best). Tejada has hit and hit as well as anyone on the Mets (except maybe Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez) this spring. If he continues, I guess the Mets can have offense AND defense up the middle.

Stock Down:

Luis Castillo - His bat and legs aren't going to win him the job so when he has errors in the field... all those easy outs look even worse.

Beast or Least of the East?

The NL East is supposed to be written in stone for 2011. The Phillies DO have 4 Aces leading off their rotation, not to mention: Howard, Utley, Victorino and Rollins. However when I look at a team as a total package it's not the Phillies I necessarily come up with as the leaders in the NL East. Don't get too excited... it's not the Mets either.


Hitting - B+
Fielding - B
Starting Pitching - A+
Bullpen - C
Overall - B+

Discussion: The Phillies rotation for 2011 embodies what an A+ rotation would look like. 4 Aces and a solid contributor. So my comparisons start there. HOWEVER, the Phillies lineup isn't exactly: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, Saltalamacchia, Scutaro. (Note, I'd also rank Texas as an A+ and the Yankees as an A) Add to this a so-so bullpen and the cracks in their armor start to show.


Hitting - B+
Fielding - A-
Starting Pitching - B+
Bullpen - A-
Overall - A-

Discussion: Look at that. Won't Zak Carter be so proud of me for picking his Braves to win the division. Here's why: If I look at the Braves hitting and compare it to the Mets and Phillies it comes out even. Add that I see only one glaring hole in their defense (Dan Uggla) and that they probably have the deepest pen in the division and their well-rounded-ness makes them a cut above the rest.


Hitting - B
Fielding - B-
Starting Pitching - B
Bullpen - B
Overall - B

Discussion: The Marlins are a team that can win this division if things break right. Anytime you are throwing out young talent like Ramirez, Sanchez, Morrison, Coghlan and Stanton you can do big things. The issue is, without Uggla their offense (on paper) isn't on par with the Phils, Mets and Braves and While Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are good, they lack the depth in the rotation to match Atlanta again. This team is only a few clicks behind Philly so keep an eye out.


Hitting - B
Fielding - A-
Starting Pitching - D+
Bullpen - B+
Overall - B-

Discussion: Lets not focus on the doom and gloom and simply face the fact that if rotations were essays in High School. The Phillies would get and A+ and the Mets would not pass by much. The Mets fielding and bullpen keep them in the running and their hitting is ranked below Philly and Atlanta only because I feel confident that Beltran will not play a full season. The Mets rotation COULD be much better than a D+... they just aren't on paper.


Hitting - C+
Fielding - B+
Starting Pitching - C
Bullpen - B
Overall - B-

Discussion: Imagine that Stephen Strasburg were healthy and that Bryce Harper were ready. Well... they aren't. That means the pitching staff is only about league-average and that the hitting is the worst in their division. Add to this that their SS is not exactly Ozzie Smith and that Adam LaRoche's bat usually takes a nap through the end of May and the Nationals still rank last in the NL East.

Ranking Them:
1. Atlanta Braves - Well Rounded and Wholesome
2. Philadelphia Phillies - God's Rotation
3. Florida Marlins - In Youth We Trust
4. New York Mets - Maybes and Ifs
5. Washington Nationals - Just Wait Til Next Year

Phantasy Island

Fantasy Baseball is about All-Stars... sure. You go out and draft a couple big stars to pad your lineup, but you win the leagues with bargains. Depending on the depth of your league (Mine has 20 teams and rosters of 25) those bargains can sometimes truly be from the bottom of the bin.

The Big Names:

David Wright - Wright is now a second rounder (Most standard leagues) but he's certainly not a bargain. Sure he's a 30 HR guy and 30 SBs aren't un-thinkable but unless Wright cuts his K's significantly. K's don't show up on all fantasy leagues but his K's have created a problem with his hitting. He walks less, scores less runs, drives in less batters. He needs to up his walks and cut his K's to get back into being a first rounder and unless he does, he's no bargain.

Jose Reyes - Reyes has become a slight bargain but people see a healthy Reyes and I'm sure that will contribute to him rocketing up the draft boards. He's in a contract year and seems to be playing at 100% and all of those good things. If you can get Reyes in the third round... He's a bargain worth taking but SOME people will take him in the second. BELIEVE ME, some will also take Reyes in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.

Ike Davis - Davis is NOT a fantasy star. In fact when ranking 1Bs he falls reasonably low: Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Teixeira, Fielder, Youkilis, Howard, Dunn, Mourneau, Morales, Konerko, Sanchez, Butler... Davis? However, Davis is young and capable of BUILDING on his 2010 performance with a strong 2011. Will Davis break into the top 10 at some point? MAYBE. I recall seeing him listed as a potential future 40 HR hitter at one point.

The Middle Rounders:

Mike Pelfrey - Mike is like Matt Garza lite. The difference is that Matt Garza should wind up being taken 3-4 rounds earlier. This DOES make Pelfrey a bargain but I actually think that the first Met pitcher to be looking for is Jonathan Niese. Pelfrey's numbers are just a little too vanilla for my liking. Niese, at least, has a little up-side and might become more of a Fantasy pitcher. Now... ESPN actually predicts fairly light numbers for Pelfrey so don't wait for him to go before looking at Niese.

Jonathan Niese - Like I said, Niese SHOULD be the #1 drafted Met pitcher. He has the potential to be a legit #2 pitcher in the league and has the closest thing (in the healthy rotation) to a fantasy performer. I see Niese as a 160-170 K pitcher but the question I have is can he get his ERA under 4.00. If he can, he's a definite fantasy rotation guy where Pelfrey and Dickey are not. Expect him to nod fade as much at the end of the season in 2011.

R.A. Dickey - Dickey had a magical 2010 and I don't see a reason for 2011 to be MUCH different. Sure he's got expanded pressure but as a later rotation or reserve pitcher, Dickey actually does pretty well. The Mets also seem to win when he pitches which is circumstantial but positive. I expect Dickey's numbers to be playable in 2011 which means that you should expect him to start being looked at around the 260th pick. If your draft isn't this deep, just keep an eye on him for the waiver wire.

Angel Pagan - Angel Pagan is the best fantasy option for the Mets outfield. That's right, I said it. Sure he won't hit 20 HRs but he's going to have a higher average and better overall numbers. Hitting between Reyes and Wright will do good things for both his Runs and RBIs and he has the best recent track record for health. With all this said, he's likely to be drafted after Beltran and maybe even Bay. Pagan is like Shane Victorino but won't be drafted as highly so when Shane goes... keep your eye on Angel.

Jason Bay - Air Canada was a bust for the Mets in 2010. He THEN ran into a wall and got a concussion. I like Bay as a person but do I like him as a player? Jason Bay is expected to rebound and hit 20-25 HRs and many more RBI's then he did in 2010. You will probably see him coming off the board FAR later than he would in any previous year and that makes him a bargain. Thus far in Spring Training, I'm not sold on him bouncing back all that much but he's worth the gamble over someone like say... Raul Ibanez.

Carlos Beltran - Carlos once belonged to the elite group so beware the draw to take him earlier. Sure, he's in a contract year. Sure, when healthy he's great. Health is a MAJOR concern. Beltran is moving to RF to spare his knee some of the ware and tear of CF. Realize that he's no longer giving you anything on the bases and that he's at best a 25 HR hitter and temper your expectations.

The Injured:

Johan Santana - This year, the question with Santana is not IF to draft him, it's WHEN. First, he's hurt and eying a return in June but could be longer with any sort of set-back. Second, he's already shown lower K's and might not return to the Mets while they are still in the running. With that said, you will still want him over MANY MANY other arms that are currently healthy. Where is that cut-off point? If the pitcher is likely to have an ERA under 4.00 and at least 140 K's take him, but that's around the point where a Santana gamble makes sense.

The Late Round Specials:

Chris Young - The new Met pitcher is impressing many this spring. I put him on the list and not Capuano because there is almost NO chance that Chris Young doesn't make the rotation. Young is a solid starter and has significant upside. This spring, he's shown improved velocity and the breaking pitches that got him big numbers a few years back. Not the kind of guy to build a rotation around... maybe not even the guy you want a guaranteed spot going to, but a guy to have in reserve.

Josh Thole - Thole doesn't have a lot of power, but he DOES hit. If you are in a head-to-head league and have a Utility spot or a catcher spot open, Thole is a guy to think about. He won't hurt your batting average and in a game of match-ups... that might be as good as a catcher who will hit 15 HRs and bat around .200. He's not Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez and his ceiling isn't sky high but you could do far worse in the later rounds.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia WILL start the year in AAA but the Mets rotation is hardly set in stone and should injuries crop up or should players fizzle, Mejia is the young gun who would be set to come in and save the day. Now... prospects usually don't get drafted to the later rounds of even deeper drafts. Expect to snag someone with upside like this slightly earlier in a keeper league.

Prospectin'

I just wanted to take a moment to talk about some of the prospects and pseudo-prospects at camp that might make an impact on the team in the future. I'll be repeating the post on a semi-weekly basis.

Nick Evans - Evans had a hit and has come across as a big positive for the Mets thus far. The problem being that he's out of options and the Mets already have Hu, Emaus, Hairston, Paulino and Harris penciled into the bench. Evans might make himself a trade candidate by playing well but I have a hard time seeing the Mets losing Emaus to keep him.

Fernando Martinez - Martinez had a good day at the plate but was a DH. As long as he's playing I won't complain. Martinez stands a good chance of being a mid-season call-up should Bay or Beltran need to miss an extended time.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy looked pretty good and must have made Terry Collins look up when he followed up a Castillo gaffe inning with a ground-rule double. How about giving Murph or Emaus a start tomorrow?

Mike Nickeas - Nickeas has impressed me with his glove. He's got a strong arm and he also gunned out a runner. Nickeas will probably sit in AAA in case Thole or Paulino are hurt.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada has a great glove and knows how to use it both from SS and 2B but his bat is not presumably ready. Not so fast... Terry Collins thinks Ruben is back into the starting 2B discussion. It's a long-shot but the hitting looks much improved. For me to get excited I need him to prove he can steal 20+ bases.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is a lefty bat with reasonably good contact and a little speed and power. He was an un-impressive BPAB (Bench Player At Best) until the AFL came along and he turned some heads. He K's like he's a power hitter and that can't continue if he's going to actually be good enough to become a MLB starter.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk is a player that coaches love... which is either something that Kirk should worry about in the showers or... he's simply a guy who follows instruction. Either way Kirk needs to be on your radar because he's very much in the mix for the Post-Beltran Mets.

Lucas Duda - Duda is a large man who hits the ball. He's like Chris Carter minus the complete insanity factor (Yes... I miss Animal too) but Duda will probably NOT make the Mets. The issue is that Duda plays LF and 1B and the Mets wanted bench OFs who could do more. Enter Hairston and Harris and exit Duda. 2012 he will at least be our big lefty on the bench.

Justin Turner - Turner is not a GREAT fielder but he is the kind of bench player that you pay for. He hits and can play all of the IF positions.

Brad Emaus - Emaus is a high OBP IF with a powerful build that doesn't lend itself to graceful fielding. Unlike Murphy he's played 2B more and can handle the position adequately. He should make the team if only because the Mets have to give him back if he doesn't.

Wilfredo Tovar - Wilmer Flores gets more buzz as he's heads and tails the better hitter, but Tovar might be the best overall SS in the system. Great fielding and a pretty good bat. The issue is that Tovar will likely be at the same level as Flores so... unless or until Wilmer moves to another position he's not going to get enough playing time.

Pedro Beato - Beato is the other rule 5 pick and I've seen him pitch. He's got a great arm. The question is, will he be worth the roster spot? I'm saying yes right now.

Jenrry Mejia - 99.999% chance Mejia goes to AAA 99.999% chance Mejia is on the MLB club by this fall.

Matt Harvey - Mets top pick is not SUPER far from the majors but, while I'd like to see him pitch to MLB players I predict he starts in Port St. Lucie.

It's ACTUAL Baseball

Break out your graphing calculator... baseball is back! That means I can get down to the only kind of math that I can stand doing... Saber-metrics and Box-Score Analysis. Good news is that the Mets new pitcher might be able to check my work to make sure I carried the 2.

Notes:

O' Jenrry - Jenrry Mejia looked very sharp in his spring debut but I do have a complaint. He did seem to get ahead of hitters but he seemed to consistently let them back into the at-bat by letting the count go to full. I think that the Mets will certainly be thinking about him in the rotation sooner than later.

Beato My Own Drum - Pedro Beato got into trouble but also displayed his electric stuff. I think that he's certainly someone to watch.

Attention F-Mart Shoppers - I watched Fernando look like an eternal prospect and also... turn on a pitch and take it yard. Fernando by no means needs to WIN a job this spring but he does need to prove he can be healthy. He's likely to be called up if there are injuries but the key to his season is health.


Valdespin Cycle - Jordany was the player who impressed me the most. (Besides Castillo and Hu who I'm still trying my best to hate.) Valdespin looked sharp playing 2B and at the plate he really looked like he was far more developed then I thought he'd be. I would say he looked like he was ready to be in the running for the 2B competition.

The Young and the Tall - Chris Young is tall... we get it. I'm getting a little bored with people pointing it out. Can we trade for John Rauch so people stop mentioning it? Anyway... yeah... he looked like he might be good enough to sit closer to the front of the rotation... but it's early.

Ollie Still Ollie - Perez looked bad, but nobody was surprised. I'd say he get's one more chance to start and then MAYBE two chances to relieve.

What Might Ultim-Utley Kill the Phils - Utley's knee is hurt and he's looking at a cortisone injection. This isn't like Wainwright's injury but he will put some questions in regards to an offense that some writers mistakenly deem a given. Let's look at facts: Victorino is good but not GREAT, Rollins looked like a shell of his former self last year, Utley has health concerns, Howard has some health issues (don't buy that he's declining), Ibanez is old enough to be Brown's father, Brown is ENTIRELY un-proven, Polanco is a giant health risk, Ruiz is only pretty good and the bullpen isn't the best I've seen. The Phillies are hardly as much of a lock to hit as you might think.

This Week:

Prospect Review: Let's go over some of the names in Mets camp to keep your eyes on.

Phantasy Island: Are There Fantasy Bargains on the New York Mets?

Beast of the East: Let's look at the 5 NL East teams... shall we?

The Amazing Race: Updating Everyone on the 2B, Bench, Rotational and Bullpen races