Tight Times of 2012

Let us imagine that the Wilpon's financial constraints forced the Mets to not sign a single free agent in 2012. They can re-sign players through arbitration, but with 40 Million coming off the books, the Mets can re-invest only 10. What would the Mets look like?

2012 Lineup:
1. Angel Pagan - CF (S)
2. Josh Thole - C (L)
3. David Wright - 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis - 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay - LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez - RF (L)
7. Ruben Tejada - SS (R)
8. Reese Havens - 2B (L)

2012 Rotation:
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)
3. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
4. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
5. Jenrry Mejia, SP (R)

2012 Bullpen:
1. CL: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
2. SU: Manny Alvarez, RP (R)
3. MR: D.J. Carrasco, RP (R)
4. MR: Pat Misch, RP (L)
5. LOOGY: Mark Cohoon, RP (L)
6. LR: Dillon Gee, RP (R)

Bench:
1. Mike Nickeas, C (R)
2. Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
3. Matt Den Dekker, OF (L)
4. Jordany Valdespin, IF (L)
5. Nick Evans, 1B/LF (R)

Lineup: You might notice that Reyes is gone... Beltran is gone and that Reese Havens has been promoted to starting 2B. I guess I'm showing a little optimism that Havens and Martinez could be healthy, but if they are... I would think that lineup could still be capable of winning some games. Thole is built in the #2 hitter mold, Martinez can protect Bay and the others and Havens and Tejada would not be an awful bottom of the order.

Rotation: This has an 80% chance of ACTUALLY BEING the rotation. The fact is... that Roy Oswalt is the biggest FA starter that will be available. Now.. the Mets might move on from Pelfrey or Harvey could be ready quickly, but a rotation starting with Santana and ending with Mejia is probably a step and a half up from the rotation now.

Bullpen: This is where the Mets show their needs. I suppose the Mets could stay pretty meager and bring back a Byrdak or an Isringhausen etc... The Mets don't have a lot of MLB level pitching near the majors and that includes the relievers.

Bench: First, where is Duda? Second, why are Valdespin and Den Dekker on the team? Duda is a lefty and the Mets cannot afford to have Murphy and Duda on the bench. Murphy simply plays more positions. Valdespin is the guy who can play the middle infield positions and doesn't have a high ceiling that would be ruined by a year on the bench. Den Dekker is a pure CF, where Nieuwenhuis is not. Add to this that Captain Kirk could be more of a starting MLB player given the opportunity and Den Dekker winds up on the bench.

Hopefully the Mets are purchased by a wealthy person who wants to let Alderson and company have free rights to build the Mets as they need to make them win. Here's hoping...

Over/Under:

If you play fantasy baseball, and I'd bet that if you are reading this, your either my mother... or you do, then you know that Yahoo and ESPN and CBS and every other fantasy sports web-site will predict before the season how players will do. These predictions come courtesy of ESPN.com and reflect the expert opinions of their fantasy gurus. Today's article is a diversion into where I see the Mets finishing... in relation to their predictions.

Jose Reyes, SS (S):

• Avg: .286 (Even)
  
• Slg: .441 (Even)
• Runs: 86 (Over)
  
• HRs: 12 (Under)
• RBIs: 56 (Even)
• BBs: 42 (Over... I hope)
• SBs: 36 (Over)

Jose's numbers from ESPN reflect him not having a healthy season. That might be fair but I think that we should be basing the predictions on Jose being healthy as he seems to be that now. His HR totals should not be above 10 if he's still a Met for the full season but at the same time, Jose can and will steal more than 36 bags. If he's traded... all of these stats change... but... I probably then have to hate him.

Angel Pagan, CF (S):

• Avg: .283 (Even)
• Slg: .417 (Even)
  
• Runs: 76 (Over)
• HRs: 9 (Over)
  
• RBIs: 62 (Over)
• BBs: 40 (Even)
  
• SBs: 30 (Under)

Angel Pagan is predicted to have an okay year but I get confused when his power numbers are lower than Reyes and his production of Runs and RBIs falls short of Jason Bay. I would also say that hitting 2nd all year would likely cut his freedom on the bases as the Mets don't want to take the bats away from Wright, Beltran, Davis and Bay with a caught stealing.

David Wright, 3B (R):

• Avg: .294 (Over)
• Slg: .517 (Even)
• Runs: 95 (Over)
• HRs: 25 (Over)
• RBIs: 100 (Over)
• BBs: 76 (Even)
• SBs: 19 (Even)

Prior to the injury plagued seasons of Beltran and Reyes and the move to Citi-Field, David Wright was a defacto top 10 fantasy pick. He's still somewhere in the top 20 but he's definitely dropped. The average has been hurt, but as I've written before, that is partially due to a lack of production and support (Beltran hasn't exactly been there to back him up so often.) The HR totals are predicted to drop and the Runs and RBIs stay in the good but not GREAT range and I disagree. If Beltran and Reyes are healthy and Bay is some version of what he USED to be, Wright has a BIG year.

Carlos Beltran, RF (S):

• Avg: .276 (Under)
• Slg: .469 (Over)
• Runs: 63 (Even)
• HRs: 18 (Over)
• RBIs: 68 (Over)
• BBs: 64 (Even)
• SBs: 10 (Under)

Say what you will about Beltran's knees. When he's been healthy... he hits. Though a .276 average seems a bit high. He's much more of a .250-.260 hitter. However hitting (all year) in the middle of the Mets order should net Carlos more than 68 RBIs as he's likely to hit closer to 25-30 HRs if he's healthy. HOWEVER... face facts and learn that Carlos Beltran will never reach double digit SBs again.

Ike Davis, 1B (L):

• Avg: .272 (Even)
• Slg: .473 (Over)
• Runs: 74 (Even)
• HRs: 22 (Over)
• RBIs: 75 (Over)
• BBs: 78 (Even)
• SBs: 2 (Even)

ESPN bothers me when I look at Ike Davis. They take his 2010 numbers and replicate them for a full season and call it a prediction. This assumes that Ike Davis has REACHED his ceiling after 1 year. It doesn't touch on the fact that he's a 30 HR threat or that he's going to be hitting behind Wright and Beltran (maybe Bay) and the fact he was a consistent producer in his ROOKIE year.

Jason Bay, LF (R):

• Avg: .268 (Even)
• Slg: .454 (Even)
• Runs: 85 (Even)
• HRs: 19 (Even)
• RBIs: 84 (Even)
• BBs: 74 (Even)
• SBs: 12 (Even)

If Bay is healthy and hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup all year... these numbers look accurate. This also assumes his 2010 was an aberration and that the Mets other players stay healthy. Most Met fans will gladly take these numbers from Jason Bay in his second year. Anything is better than what he did (while healthy) in 2010.

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L):

• Avg: .280 (Even)
• Slg: .445 (Even)
• Runs: 37 (Over)
• HRs: 7 (Over)
• RBIs: 38 (Over)
• BBs: 21 (Over)
• SBs: 4 (Even)

At first glance you might think I differ GREATLY with ESPN. That isn't totally true. We differ on ONE key factor. I see Murphy as the starting second baseman, and they see him on the bench. On the bench, their numbers are accurate but over a full season you can probably multiply a lot of those numbers by 2... even if he's platooning.

Josh Thole, C (L):

• Avg: .270 (Even)
• Slg: .382 (Even)
• Runs: 36 (Over)
• HRs: 5 (Even)
• RBIs: 36 (Over)
• BBs: 35 (Over)
• SBs: 2 (Over)

ESPN predicts that Thole and Paulino will be an even split. I can't agree less. Thole is a lefty and that will get him into more games alone. Add that Thole is the "Catcher of the Future" and that he hits for a higher average and is more consistent and I think we all know who is getting the lion's share of the playing time. The other issue I see is that ESPN over-looks the fact that Thole can run... for a catcher. He's not going to steal bases because of his speed, but because he has enough speed to take advantage of sloppy play.

Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

• ERA: 4.00 (Under)
• Whip: 1.39 (Even)
• BBs: 68 (Even)
• Ws: 13 (Even)
• Ks: 113 (Even)
• IP: 207 (Even)

ESPN is pretty accurate with Big Pelf. I'm not sure if anyone in America looks at Mike and sees an Ace. I do see a pitcher who can keep you in games and maybe be looked at as a #3 pitcher. Even so... I don't see Pelfrey having a 20 win season for the Mets in 2011 and those 13 wins aren't a sure thing either.

Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

• ERA: 4.36 (Under)
• Whip: 1.46 (Under)
• BBs: 69 (Even)
• Ws: 11 (Over)
• Ks: 153 (Even)
• IP: 190 (Over)

Niese is the closest thing to an Ace that the Mets have this season. He can get K's at a decent clip and has shown the ability to be dominant. That ERA well North of 4.00 is a bit extreme from Jon as it seems ESPN predicts he should be getting worse with more time in the pros. I guess they view his tired arm issues as a sign he wasn't that good instead of a sign he'd thrown more innings then he had been used to.

R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.89 (Even)
• Whip: 1.30 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 10 (Over)
• Ks: 107 (Over)
• IP: 199 (Over)

Really ESPN? If there is one thing I've heard about knuckle-ballers it's that their arms get tired. ESPN doesn't see Dickey as the work-horse I believe he will be. He's not an Ace, nobody is saying that. He is a pitcher who can pitch deep into games. Also... if that slow knuckler is working that means he can be a fastball/change-up pitcher... except his balls dance a WHOLE lot more. If he can do that... the K's will follow.

Chris Young, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.88 (Even)
• Whip: 1.31 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Even)
• Ks: 77 (Even)
• IP: 102 (Even)

Now, I could take issue with Young's numbers being poor, but I can't expect ESPN to predict that Chris Young will pitch 200 innings. His arm just hasn't been that healthy. However, you can probably take this half-year estimate and do the math to come up with what his numbers would be as he reaches 150... 180 innings pitched. I like Young. It's hard not to. I'm hoping that he can just stay healthy.

Chris Capuano, SP (L)

• ERA: 3.81 (Over)
• Whip: 1.26 (Over)
• BBs: 23 (Even)
• Ws: 5 (Over)
• Ks: 64 (Even)
• IP: 85 (Even)

It seems that ESPN predicts Capuano AND Gee will both win that 5th starter job. I'll forgive them because it lets me not put Gee here. Capuano looks like the best option for 5th starter right now. He isn't great but he'll keep us in games. The thing with ESPN is that they adjusted his ERA and Whip to factor Capuano ALSO relieving. The more he starts... the higher the ERA and Whip. When Santana comes back, Chris moves to the bullpen or the Mets will simply have other injured pitchers for him to replace.

Johan Santana, SP (L)*

• ERA: 3.13 (Over)
• Whip: 1.25 (Even)
• BBs: 33 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Over)
• Ks: 91 (Even)
• IP: 118 (Even)

Johan Santana will not pitch for the Mets until June (at the earliest) but he COULD get to 118 innings if he's back then. I'll point out that missing spring training and entering the year late, will not be the BEST FRIEND of his ERA but at the same time... if he getss those 118 innings, I think he'll get a few more wins. It all evens out.

I'm excited about the Mets season, even if it isn't one where my expectations are super high. I think that Collins and Alderson have the team on the right foot and if Santa's listening... maybe I even get new owners who know how to leave baseball to the baseball people.

Prospectin' 2:

Taking another look at the "minor-league" players who are making a splash in camp. I'm focusing on the positives because with a possible flood coming towards my house for the second year in a row. I think looking at the good is warranted.

Matt Den Dekker - Age 23 - Position CF - A+/AA: Den Dekker has not had enough chances this spring to do anything meaningful. He is 2 for 3 in his EXTREMELY limited at-bats, but 3 ABs doesn't prove anything. Matt will likely wind up in Port St. Lucie or Binghamton (wherever they need a CF).

Fernando Martinez - Age 22 - Position RF - AAA/MLB: Martinez has been a prospect for a LONG time. HOWEVER, he's 22 and in the most advanced level of the minors and if you've watched this spring... he's hitting. Through 17 at-bats he's hitting an absurd .412 and slugging a robust .706. What ACTUALLY excites me is this little ratio 3 : 4. (3 Walks to 4 K's) THAT is a good sign and a sign that makes me believe that Fernando WILL replace Beltran in the OF either after this season, a trade or an injury. Health is still a major and legitimate concern.

Ruben Tejada - Age 21 - Position SS/2B - AAA/MLB: Tejada has hit well this spring. Evidenced by his 3 RBIs, he's also been clutch. His defense is great and if he can hit over .275 he's a major league quality middle infielder but unless he learns to swipe a bag... I refuse to be excited. Ruben will be in AAA unless he beats Murphy, Emaus, Castillo and Turner for the starting 2B job.

Nick Evans - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: Evans has hit his way from irrelevant to problematic. It's a good thing AND a bad thing. Evans is now looking like he deserves a roll on the major league club. On top of this he has no options left. The issue is going to be the Mets acquisition of Scott Hairston and Willie Harris. Evans just doesn't fit onto a 5 man bench. Collins could run with a 6 man bench, but there are few enough bullpen spots.

Lucas Duda - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: If Duda or Evans could play CF the Mets would not have signed Harris and Hairston. Duda deserves a spot on the bench as the lefty power bat but he has options and will go to AAA.

Daniel Murphy - Age 25 (for now) - Position 1B/3B/2B: This spring Murphy has shown he can still hit and that he's a capable 3B. He has played fine at 2B but has yet to be challenged. When he finally gets that double-play opportunity... I hope it goes well.

Pat Misch - Age 29 - Position SP/RP - AAA/MLB: Misch is better than he's shown but not excessively so. He gives up too many hits but doesn't walk many. He's also miles ahead of Dillon Gee right now.

The Big C:

I went with my wife to see Lombardi at Circle in the Square yesterday and FIRST... Go see it. Great play, great acting and the best theater in Manhattan. SECOND it made me think: I always thought of coaches and managers as pretty useless. Do coaches etc... have a REAL ability to make their teams win? Or... do they just manage relief pitching and bench players?

Obviously Lombardi has some mystique attached to him. If only there were a coach who was out there in my lifetime who seemed to single-handedly turn a team around...

Jacques Lemaire was brought back by the Devils after the team got off to it's worst start in over 15 years. John MacLean, a former player of Lemaire's and a former assistant to him, was fired and Lemaire came back. Then... the all-star break came and went and something funny happened. The Devils started winning. Not just winning 2 out of every 3 (which would be quite good) but going 22-2-2 and moving from playoff irrelevance... to playoff spoiler... to playoff long-shot... to playoff contender. Now... the Devils are still a long way from reaching the playoffs for the up-teenth time since Brodeur came up from the minors.

What is the secret? Is it saying, "Ya know," in every press conference 20-40 times? More importantly, can Terry Collins harness it?

In Lombardi there is a line (I'm going to butcher it, but here goes):

"Once Sunday came, Vince, was the least important man on the sidelines. Other than calling 1 or 2 plays he just sat back and let his team play. They were so well prepared for every situation that they didn't need him."

That, ladies and gentleman, is the point of Spring Training. That, is the be-all and end-all of coaching. You need to teach your players how to handle everything so they simply do it... instinctively. Is Collins the next Vince Lombardi? Is he the next Jacques Lemaire? I'll settle for him simply being able to manage the bullpen, but I'll hope that he can do for the Mets what Lombardi did for Green Bay and what Lemaire has done for the 2011 Devils.

This Week:

Prospectin': I continue to evaluate the Spring Training progress of the up and coming Met players. Bet I mention Evans, Duda and Martinez once or twice.

Over/Under: I take a look at some statistics and predict whether the Mets will beat their predicted results or not.

A Meager 2012: What would the Mets look like in 2012 if they signed NO free agents?

The Amazing Race: Updating Everyone on the 2B, Bench, Rotational and Bullpen races.

And They're Off!

There are four battles currently being waged in the Mets Spring Training Camp. Who will take the 5 available spots on the major league bench? Who will make the rotation? Who will make the bullpen? Who will become the starter at second base? Thus far, we have a few things we KNOW and a few things seem clearer.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely Out:

Luis Castillo - No, he's not definitely off the team but he's not going to stick with the Mets as a bench player. Compare Castillo's ability to play 2B with Murphy, Emaus, Turner and Hu... who can all play multiple positions and tell me who is going to make the bench.

Who's Definitely In:

Ronny Paulino - It's a bit of a duh, though Mike Nickeas will be the guy who starts the year backing up Thole.

Scott Hairston - Hairston is capable of playing all three OF positions and while Harris has the better overall glove, Scott is the one who doesn't have a minor league contract.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - He's played GOOD 3B, can play adequate 1B and looked okay at 2B. He still probably wins the starting job but he's got a great bench skill set and I don't think the Mets would let that slip away.

Nick Evans - He's played himself back into the legit picture of being on the bench. Collins likes him, he's got power and he's out of options. This means that if the Mets don't make room, he's going to be taken. As much as I like Hairston's bat, I'd prefer not losing Evans who has much more potential.
Stock Down: Chin-Lung Hu - Wow! The kid can field. He can also hit weak grounders to the infield. It's rough to give a spot to a guy who is as close as anyone to an automatic out.

The Rotation:

Who's Definitely Out:

Olliver Perez - The Mets have made it official. We have seen Ollie start his last game for the Mets. He's still alive in the race to be a reliever but even that is a bit iffy given that Ollie is as reliable a pitcher as Ozzie Osbourne is reliable to get the words to the National Anthem correct.

Who's Definitely In:

Mike Pelfrey - Ace until Santana returns.

Jonathan Niese - Looked like he might be the Mets top pitcher to start the season.

R.A. Dickey - Looked sharp and in command.

Stock Up:

Chris Young - He starts today but the buzz is that his velocity is back up a bit and he's got a firm hold of the #4 spot right now.

Chris Capuano - Mets seem attached to him relieving but he's pitched well this whole time. I think he'll get a start next week.

Stock Down:

D.J. Carrasco - He's got to worry about making the bullpen at this point.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Francisco Rodriguez - He's the closer and that is a lock.

Bobby Parnell - He may not win the 8th inning job or be the closer of the future but he's got a spot in the pen with his name on it.

Stock Up:

Pedro Beato - Beato has an electric arm and the Mets have liked him for a long time. They DO NOT want to let Beato slip away. Beato has the inside track right now to make the team.

Jason Isringhausen - Jason will retire if he doesn't make the team. I like his chances and I love that he has 6 pitches to hurl at you. He might work his way into that 8th inning job.

Ryota Iggarashi - Iggy was a disappointment in 2010 but he's impressed his coaches in 2011 and might be a part of the mix.

Chris Capuano - Right now, Chris looks like he could win a rotation spot but he'll make the bullpen before not getting ANY job.

Tim Byrdak - The only pitcher I've seen come in and inherit runners. I'd say Byrdak is winning that LOOGY race.

Stock Down:

Manny Alvarez - Alvarez will go back to the minors and probably close for AAA Buffalo. He's got talent and a strong arm but he's just not ready.

Manny Accosta - Accosta still has a shot and I think he's a good reliever. I question if HE believes that too.

Olliver Perez - Ollie had an awful outing and a passable outing. In his favor, the Mets owe him $12 Million. Against him, every fan of the Mets, the fact he's not experienced as a relief pitcher and physics.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has only had one start at 2nd but it went well and that is what matters. It's the first step towards him winning the position (as most fans think he will).

Ruben Tejada - Somebody must have taken issue with me calling him a BPAB (Bench Player At Best). Tejada has hit and hit as well as anyone on the Mets (except maybe Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez) this spring. If he continues, I guess the Mets can have offense AND defense up the middle.

Stock Down:

Luis Castillo - His bat and legs aren't going to win him the job so when he has errors in the field... all those easy outs look even worse.

Beast or Least of the East?

The NL East is supposed to be written in stone for 2011. The Phillies DO have 4 Aces leading off their rotation, not to mention: Howard, Utley, Victorino and Rollins. However when I look at a team as a total package it's not the Phillies I necessarily come up with as the leaders in the NL East. Don't get too excited... it's not the Mets either.


Hitting - B+
Fielding - B
Starting Pitching - A+
Bullpen - C
Overall - B+

Discussion: The Phillies rotation for 2011 embodies what an A+ rotation would look like. 4 Aces and a solid contributor. So my comparisons start there. HOWEVER, the Phillies lineup isn't exactly: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, Saltalamacchia, Scutaro. (Note, I'd also rank Texas as an A+ and the Yankees as an A) Add to this a so-so bullpen and the cracks in their armor start to show.


Hitting - B+
Fielding - A-
Starting Pitching - B+
Bullpen - A-
Overall - A-

Discussion: Look at that. Won't Zak Carter be so proud of me for picking his Braves to win the division. Here's why: If I look at the Braves hitting and compare it to the Mets and Phillies it comes out even. Add that I see only one glaring hole in their defense (Dan Uggla) and that they probably have the deepest pen in the division and their well-rounded-ness makes them a cut above the rest.


Hitting - B
Fielding - B-
Starting Pitching - B
Bullpen - B
Overall - B

Discussion: The Marlins are a team that can win this division if things break right. Anytime you are throwing out young talent like Ramirez, Sanchez, Morrison, Coghlan and Stanton you can do big things. The issue is, without Uggla their offense (on paper) isn't on par with the Phils, Mets and Braves and While Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are good, they lack the depth in the rotation to match Atlanta again. This team is only a few clicks behind Philly so keep an eye out.


Hitting - B
Fielding - A-
Starting Pitching - D+
Bullpen - B+
Overall - B-

Discussion: Lets not focus on the doom and gloom and simply face the fact that if rotations were essays in High School. The Phillies would get and A+ and the Mets would not pass by much. The Mets fielding and bullpen keep them in the running and their hitting is ranked below Philly and Atlanta only because I feel confident that Beltran will not play a full season. The Mets rotation COULD be much better than a D+... they just aren't on paper.


Hitting - C+
Fielding - B+
Starting Pitching - C
Bullpen - B
Overall - B-

Discussion: Imagine that Stephen Strasburg were healthy and that Bryce Harper were ready. Well... they aren't. That means the pitching staff is only about league-average and that the hitting is the worst in their division. Add to this that their SS is not exactly Ozzie Smith and that Adam LaRoche's bat usually takes a nap through the end of May and the Nationals still rank last in the NL East.

Ranking Them:
1. Atlanta Braves - Well Rounded and Wholesome
2. Philadelphia Phillies - God's Rotation
3. Florida Marlins - In Youth We Trust
4. New York Mets - Maybes and Ifs
5. Washington Nationals - Just Wait Til Next Year

Phantasy Island

Fantasy Baseball is about All-Stars... sure. You go out and draft a couple big stars to pad your lineup, but you win the leagues with bargains. Depending on the depth of your league (Mine has 20 teams and rosters of 25) those bargains can sometimes truly be from the bottom of the bin.

The Big Names:

David Wright - Wright is now a second rounder (Most standard leagues) but he's certainly not a bargain. Sure he's a 30 HR guy and 30 SBs aren't un-thinkable but unless Wright cuts his K's significantly. K's don't show up on all fantasy leagues but his K's have created a problem with his hitting. He walks less, scores less runs, drives in less batters. He needs to up his walks and cut his K's to get back into being a first rounder and unless he does, he's no bargain.

Jose Reyes - Reyes has become a slight bargain but people see a healthy Reyes and I'm sure that will contribute to him rocketing up the draft boards. He's in a contract year and seems to be playing at 100% and all of those good things. If you can get Reyes in the third round... He's a bargain worth taking but SOME people will take him in the second. BELIEVE ME, some will also take Reyes in the 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.

Ike Davis - Davis is NOT a fantasy star. In fact when ranking 1Bs he falls reasonably low: Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Teixeira, Fielder, Youkilis, Howard, Dunn, Mourneau, Morales, Konerko, Sanchez, Butler... Davis? However, Davis is young and capable of BUILDING on his 2010 performance with a strong 2011. Will Davis break into the top 10 at some point? MAYBE. I recall seeing him listed as a potential future 40 HR hitter at one point.

The Middle Rounders:

Mike Pelfrey - Mike is like Matt Garza lite. The difference is that Matt Garza should wind up being taken 3-4 rounds earlier. This DOES make Pelfrey a bargain but I actually think that the first Met pitcher to be looking for is Jonathan Niese. Pelfrey's numbers are just a little too vanilla for my liking. Niese, at least, has a little up-side and might become more of a Fantasy pitcher. Now... ESPN actually predicts fairly light numbers for Pelfrey so don't wait for him to go before looking at Niese.

Jonathan Niese - Like I said, Niese SHOULD be the #1 drafted Met pitcher. He has the potential to be a legit #2 pitcher in the league and has the closest thing (in the healthy rotation) to a fantasy performer. I see Niese as a 160-170 K pitcher but the question I have is can he get his ERA under 4.00. If he can, he's a definite fantasy rotation guy where Pelfrey and Dickey are not. Expect him to nod fade as much at the end of the season in 2011.

R.A. Dickey - Dickey had a magical 2010 and I don't see a reason for 2011 to be MUCH different. Sure he's got expanded pressure but as a later rotation or reserve pitcher, Dickey actually does pretty well. The Mets also seem to win when he pitches which is circumstantial but positive. I expect Dickey's numbers to be playable in 2011 which means that you should expect him to start being looked at around the 260th pick. If your draft isn't this deep, just keep an eye on him for the waiver wire.

Angel Pagan - Angel Pagan is the best fantasy option for the Mets outfield. That's right, I said it. Sure he won't hit 20 HRs but he's going to have a higher average and better overall numbers. Hitting between Reyes and Wright will do good things for both his Runs and RBIs and he has the best recent track record for health. With all this said, he's likely to be drafted after Beltran and maybe even Bay. Pagan is like Shane Victorino but won't be drafted as highly so when Shane goes... keep your eye on Angel.

Jason Bay - Air Canada was a bust for the Mets in 2010. He THEN ran into a wall and got a concussion. I like Bay as a person but do I like him as a player? Jason Bay is expected to rebound and hit 20-25 HRs and many more RBI's then he did in 2010. You will probably see him coming off the board FAR later than he would in any previous year and that makes him a bargain. Thus far in Spring Training, I'm not sold on him bouncing back all that much but he's worth the gamble over someone like say... Raul Ibanez.

Carlos Beltran - Carlos once belonged to the elite group so beware the draw to take him earlier. Sure, he's in a contract year. Sure, when healthy he's great. Health is a MAJOR concern. Beltran is moving to RF to spare his knee some of the ware and tear of CF. Realize that he's no longer giving you anything on the bases and that he's at best a 25 HR hitter and temper your expectations.

The Injured:

Johan Santana - This year, the question with Santana is not IF to draft him, it's WHEN. First, he's hurt and eying a return in June but could be longer with any sort of set-back. Second, he's already shown lower K's and might not return to the Mets while they are still in the running. With that said, you will still want him over MANY MANY other arms that are currently healthy. Where is that cut-off point? If the pitcher is likely to have an ERA under 4.00 and at least 140 K's take him, but that's around the point where a Santana gamble makes sense.

The Late Round Specials:

Chris Young - The new Met pitcher is impressing many this spring. I put him on the list and not Capuano because there is almost NO chance that Chris Young doesn't make the rotation. Young is a solid starter and has significant upside. This spring, he's shown improved velocity and the breaking pitches that got him big numbers a few years back. Not the kind of guy to build a rotation around... maybe not even the guy you want a guaranteed spot going to, but a guy to have in reserve.

Josh Thole - Thole doesn't have a lot of power, but he DOES hit. If you are in a head-to-head league and have a Utility spot or a catcher spot open, Thole is a guy to think about. He won't hurt your batting average and in a game of match-ups... that might be as good as a catcher who will hit 15 HRs and bat around .200. He's not Joe Mauer or Victor Martinez and his ceiling isn't sky high but you could do far worse in the later rounds.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia WILL start the year in AAA but the Mets rotation is hardly set in stone and should injuries crop up or should players fizzle, Mejia is the young gun who would be set to come in and save the day. Now... prospects usually don't get drafted to the later rounds of even deeper drafts. Expect to snag someone with upside like this slightly earlier in a keeper league.