Academic Probation?

How well has the great guru of Money Ball, Sandy Alderson, done since taking over the Mets? I'll be looking at how well he's crossed the T's dotted the I's and make sure that he showed all his work. Hopefully I won't have to give him in school suspension for cheating off another GM's test.

A wise blogger pointed out the lack of need for a GM report card in Mid-March. I responded with the lack of need for blogging in general. Enjoy it for what it's worth.

Who He Got:

Chris Young - Young is getting an A+ from me. He was in-expensive and looks like he could be a front of the rotation starter again. He gives me confidence and that is HUGE. Sandy looks pretty smart. This deal gets an A for Sandy.

Scott Hairston - With Beltran likely to spend 50%+ of the year watching baseball... Hairston's ability to be a starter combined with being able to platoon him with Harris or Duda makes Sandy look smart again. He's got another A in my book.

Taylor Buchholz - This was a low-risk move but at the same time it looks like a solid one. Buchholz is currently fighting it out with Accosta, Isringhausen, Beato and others for a middle reliever job. Sandy gets a B but it won't hurt his average.

D.J. Carrasco - I understand why Sandy took D.J. but I'm not liking what I see too much. He seems to be hittable (not unlike Mike Pelfrey) and the two-year deal reminds me of Ryota Iggarashi's. Sandy Gets a C- from me.

Chris Capuano - When Capuano was signed I thought for sure he was going to be a lefty specialist / long man. If that's all he was... I'd give Sandy a B+. HOWEVER, it looks like Chris will be good enough to start so I'll up that to an A-.

Willie Harris - I don't love Willie Harris. Is he really better than Jesus Feliciano? I don't know. He has shown the ability to be clutch (vs. the Mets) and can play 2B in a pinch. I guess I'll give Sandy a B-.

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is old and not the most exciting guy in the world but he is a heck of a LOOGY. That's a compliment... in case you are reading the blog and don't follow baseball... MOM! Sandy gets another A for Byrdak.

Chin-Lung Hu - One of the only trades Sandy made. It's a low-risk trade and it's also low reward. The biggest plus to it, is that the Mets can keep Ruben Tejada in AAA even if Jose Reyes gets hurt. So... B.

Ronny Paulino - Paulino is what he is, a catcher with some power who hits lefties pretty darn well. It was the perfect guy to get to platoon with Thole. Alright... John Buck's splits were even better but Paulino was still pretty good. B+.

Jason Isringhausen - Can we credit Sandy with this? Not really. Izzy came to the Mets and auditioned. All the same, Sandy will reap the benefits of happy accidents. If Jason stays healthy he's a 6-pitch reliever and a part of Mets history. B+.

Pedro Beato - Beato was Alderson's 2nd Rule 5 nab. He looks like he's also pretty slick on the mound. He has a hard fastball with a lot of movement. I could see Beato progressing into a setup guy and I think he'll stick with the team. A.

Brad Emaus - Emaus seemed like a great idea. He was a contact oriented hitters, who could play 2nd base and share some time with Murphy in the role. He hasn't hit that much this spring and is looking up and Castillo and Luis Hernandez. He did get a big double yesterday but color me un-impressed thus far. D+.

Sandy's Final Report Card

Math - Sandy has done his homework and selected guys who aren't big risks. He has made good additions and Met fans are hoping he's equally willing to make a few subtractions in the near future. He seems to check his work and make sure he hasn't made any miscalculations.

Science - Alderson has shown a willingness to experiment, but it hasn't worked out so great at 2B thus far. He needs to make sure he has a more stable control group in place in case his future experiments become volatile.

English - Sandy has proven he is good with the media. Not only in about how he handles his dealings but also with dealing with the intrigue surrounding the clowns who currently own the team.

History - Willie Harris always killed the Mets. Isringhausen was part of a failed second coming of Gooden and Seaver. The depth of the relief pitchers also shows that he's watched previous seasons of Mets baseball.

Gym - When his academics are put on the field there have been mixed results. He found pitching, but hitting seems less easy. Does this remind anyone of some of his earlier teams?

Overall: A-, Sandy has done a pretty great job doing a lot with not a lot of money. I'm excited to see what he can do with 30 Million to spend.

Extra Credit: I'm excited to see what happens with Sandy Alderson and a couple of trade candidates. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Francisco Rodriguez, and even Mike Pelfrey, Chris Young and Chris Capuano. A lot of what Omar was bad at was not his off-season dealings but his inability to act on the fly during the season.

The players Sandy has brought in have yet to fully "evolve" as it's been put to me. This judgement is purely based on what they've shown thus far.

Mets of Tomorrow

I decided to just have a day of pure fantasy speculation. As many know, the Mets are in a bit of a financial situation and have a big name player approaching free agency. I'm going to take a glass half-full look at this and future off seasons and make some roster guesses. I think playoffs in 2012 and World Series in 2013 and 2014 is totally attainable. Right?

2012 New York Mets:

The Mets do decide to re-sign Jose Reyes who agrees to a lucrative three year deal, with a vesting option for a 4th and 5th. Alderson uses the rest of the money the Mets clear to sign Edwin Jackson and Jonathan Broxton to two year deals. Lastly the Mets promote Fernando Martinez and Reese Havens from AAA to fill the gaps at RF and 2B. Jenrry Mejia continues to pitch well after his mid-season promotion in 2011.

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
Rotation:
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
3. Jenrry Mejia, SP (R)
4. Edwin Jackson, SP (R)
5. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

Bullpen:
CL: Jonathan Broxton, RP (R)
SU: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

Notable Losses:

Carlos Beltran - Beltran leaves the Mets and catches a 1-year deal with Boston. He replaces David Ortiz as the DH and fills in occasionally in the OF. Francisco Rodriguez - Francisco Rodriguez signs a contract with Philadelphia and has two 30+ save seasons before losing the job. Mike Pelfrey - Mike Pelfrey catches on with Milwaukee and wins 10 games.

Notable Acquisitions:

Edwin Jackson - Jackson comes to New York but never amounts to a front-line starter. He does prove to be reliable in the second half of the rotation.
Jonathan Broxton - The Dodgers let Broxton go after two consecutive down seasons and the Mets sign him to compete with Parnell for the closer role. Broxton wins the role in camp.

2013 New York Mets:

Angel Pagan and Santana leave town and the Mets again build from both within and without. Caesar Puello is promoted after crushing AA in 2012 and takes over in center. The Mets re-sign David Wright during the season after using their 2013 option. Mark Cohoon has a mediocre year as the Mets #5 starter but the Mets do find success with their front 4.

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Josh Thole, C (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Caesar Puello, CF (R)
8. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
Rotation:
1. Cole Hamels, SP (L)
2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
3. Jenrry Mejia, SP (R)
4. Edwin Jackson, SP (R)
5. Mark Cohoon, SP (L)

Bullpen:
CL: Jonathan Broxton, RP (R)
SU: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
Notable Losses:

Angel Pagan - The Mets decide that they can't afford to give Pagan the contract he is seeking. He signs with Seattle. Johan Santana - The Mets let Santana out of his option and he signs a two-year deal with the Cubs.

Notable Acquisitions:

Cole Hamels - The Mets take advantage of their fiscal conservative 2011 and 2012 and sign Hamels to a four year deal.

2014 New York Mets:

The Mets offer Edwin Jackson arbitration and he accepts. Clearing out Jason Bay and Broxton allows the Mets the financial freedom to make a big trade for Felix Hernandez. King Felix extends his contract with the Mets for 4 additional years. Wilmer Flores after converting in 2013 to the outfield finds his place in right field.

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Josh Thole, C (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Wilmer Flores, RF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Caesar Puello, CF (R)
8. Reese Havens, 2B (L)
Rotation:
1. Cole Hamels, SP (L)
2. Jenrry Mejia, SP (R)
3. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
4. Felix Hernandez, SP (R)
5. Edwin Jackson, SP (R)

Bullpen:
CL: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
SU: Juan Urbina, RP (L)
Notable Losses:
Jason Bay - Bay's option is not exercised and he eventually signs a 1-year deal with the Tigers.

Notable Acquisitions:

Felix Hernandez - The Mets acquire Hernandez from Seattle who could not afford his $20 Million contract and wished to re-build.

Fantasy can be fun sometimes. Sadly... that's all this is.

The Core

You will often hear teams refer to their "Core" players. The guys that make up the crux of their team. Sometimes, like in St. Louis, this can be one player. Sometimes, like in the Bronx, it's a group of guys that you raised from the farm yourself. Sometimes, like in Philly, you sign half of the players in your core. Once upon a time, the Mets had a core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Delgado. That isn't the case anymore.

The Current Core 4:

David Wright - David Wright is still the face of this franchise. When David Wright's current contract runs out... the Mets WILL re-new it. They WILL sign a long-term contract with Wright for numerous reasons and he will continue to be a member of the core. Not only is David Wright the rock of the club but he's also the rock of the lineup. He's been healthy and productive every year since he cam up. That is not a super easy thing to achieve.

Ike Davis - The next piece of the core is not Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran OR Johan Santana. Ike Davis is the next piece of the team. His bat is respected... though a little under-valued. (Adam LaRoche... REALLY?!?) Ike Davis has a sweet glove and a steady approach... not to mention enough power to start leading this team in HRs as early as 2011. Davis will be a Met for a long time. Yes... that means we won't be getting Pujols. Does anyone really think he'd come to Queens, given his options?

Jose Reyes - Until the day he's traded or leaves via free agency, Jose is part of the Met core. Now... I already traded Jose from my fantasy keeper league (for Elvis Andrus and Carlos Santana) as part of my personal process of distancing myself from a player I love before he goes. I just don't want another Robin Ventura or Scott Gomez situation. When Reyes shows up in a Yankees or Phillies jersey in 2012, I don't want to be TOO upset.

Jonathan Niese - Pelfrey isn't super special and Johan Santana will only be with the Mets for so long... Niese, is the core pitcher we should focus on. Now... there is nothing wrong with Pelfrey or Santana or even Dickey and Young. They just aren't going to ever be the heart and soul of the New York Mets. Niese looks like he's going to get the chance in 2011 to be the heart and soul of the New York Met's rotation. For better or worse.

Hired Guns:

Jason Bay - Jason Bay was one of Omar Minaya's WORST signings. The year the Mets desperately needed pitching... he signed a streaky hitter who's biggest success came in a park with a short (extremely high) left field fence. With all of that, I can't fault Bay for anything. He plays hard and tries his best every time he plays. If he rebounds, his bat will be a big part of the success the Mets manage, but he will NEVER be part of the Met core.

Carlos Beltran - He was once part of the core. In a contract year, playing injured, coming off injuries and switching to a new position... I've moved on. I moved on during his second year on the team, but I think most people have moved on by now. The Mets are praying that Beltran can play enough and a well enough to give them some value via trade. At this point a prospect of any caliber and salary relief might be enough. If Beltran can be healthy and the Mets are winning... I still trade him at the deadline.

Johan Santana - Santana is on the Mets beyond 2011, but he doesn't look like he will be part of the Met's future success, so I am pulling this injury waiting to happen from the core player list. Like Bay, I like Santana as a person and a player, but there becomes a time where you are not part of the team's current and future success, you merely are a talented player getting a pay-check. I think Santana is at that point.

Francisco Rodriguez - No question about playing for money with K-Rod. K-Rod wants his extension to kick in and that means he needs to pitch well. If he does pitch well, he will close games and he will be a burden through 2012. If he does not, he's gone. It's really that simple. I was excited when Francisco was signed. I can't even fault Omar on the contract too much. All I can say is, THAT, is far too much to spend on ANY closer.

Future Core:

Jose Reyes - I list Reyes twice because of the chance that Jose plays well and the Mets having money (supposedly... stupid Wilpons) for 2012. I hope Jose is back, even if it means that I'll now need to over-pay to get him back on my fantasy team. Jose on the Mets, means that he is part of the core of the team. It's really as simple as that. I very much hop I can continue to call Wright and Reyes the corner-stones of the Mets beyond 2011.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia could come up this season, he could come up next. When he does, he might be a front-line starter or a shut-down reliever. Either way, Mejia is the best hope the Mets have of answering the dynamic pitching of Philly. Though I suppose that: Edwin Jackson or Adam Wainwright could come to the Mets on long-term deals and become parts of the core... My money is on Mejia being the biggest change to the 2012 rotation.

Fernando Martinez - Forever prospect, Fernando Martinez, just turned in an excellent spring training and was sent to AAA to build more skills and prove he can stay healthy. This young kid... with arthritis, could be the starting RF for the Mets the day that Beltran is not on the team. Now... it could be Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis or someone else entirely but... for now, let us assume Fernando is healthy in 2011. He is the first and best choice to succeed Beltran and if he does reach his potential... he's also going to become a core member of the team.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk has an outside chance of being an MLB CF. Why do I only give him an outside chance? Because Angel Pagan (who almost made this list) is likely going to have that position and because Kirk's defense isn't quite CF caliber. It's close and he should man CF for AAA but it's not a guarantee. It might be more likely that he winds up in a corner OF position at which point his power might look a little light.

Josh Thole - I won't deny that I value a higher batting average over additional power. I liked Olerud WAY more than Delgado and I like Thole for the same reason. I don't care if it's a single. I just want you to get a hit when you come to the plate. Josh does that. What he's adding is improved defense, better game calling and little power of his own. Sure, he's never going to sniff 20 or 30 HRs but he could become a 10 HR hitter. He also has enough pop to hit a few doubles and enough speed, that in the wacky dimensions of Citi-Field, to hit a few triples. All this adds up to a franchise catcher (in my eyes) and someone I'd place in my core.

Being in the core and being outside the core doesn't mean much. It really has most to do with a willingness for the team to trade you when the time eventually comes. Core players are harder to deal because they are the foundation you wish to build off of. The reason someone like Josh Thole makes the list while Angel Pagan doesn't is not because of the level of skill but the difficulty to replace. Here's hoping that our foundation is pretty good in 2012.

Harsh Realities

Just thought I'd treat everyone with a lovely picture of my beautiful neighborhood. If you've ever wanted the joy of living in Venice without the hassle of learning Italian, I've got the real estate deal for you. While I'm facing the harsh realities of owning a home that is worth less then the mortgage. My Mets are facing the harsh realities of starting the season without Carlos Beltran and facing a full year without Johan Santana.

We already knew that Johan was starting the season on the shelf. However when I talked about the reality of Johan not being back this season, a wiser, well known and accomplished Mets blogger (who I will not name), told me that because Johan had started a throwing program his timetable for return was pretty much good. I know my Mets and injuries are ALWAYS worse than they appear. If the Mets are out by July, maybe Johan is better off NOT coming back in 2011 and being 100% in 2012.

Carlos Beltran has had his own setbacks. Yet I think I'll point out that there is a silver lining to the Beltran saga.

Scott Hairston - Anyone remember Scott's line from 2009? .265, 17 HRs, 64 RBI...? Sound about right? Yeah... Hairston is not only a capable fielder and a clutch hitter, but he's not exceptionally old and not long removed from having a season which looked like it would keep him as a starter in the MLB. Let us add that his splits vs. lefties see a much improved BA and a much much higher slugging percentage.

Lucas Duda - Why do I list splits? Lucas Duda has impressed this spring. He's impressed Collins, he's impressed Alderson and he's impressed OTHER scouts. People are now thinking that Lucas might be more then a powerful MLB alternate/bench player. Now they see more of a starter. Duda hitting against only righties and Hairston against MOSTLY lefties is going to only inflate their lines and make them a good platoon option. Now... I think it should always be mentioned, I'm not and have never been a Beltran fan, but I'm less concerned about Carlos not being in the lineup. That's all.

This Week:

The Core: I take a look at the current core talent of the New York Mets. I'll also evaluate who should be considered for that kind of title.

Mets Futures: The team of tomorrow... Wednesday.

Off-Season Report Card: Let's evaluate how Sandy Alderson did.

The Amazing Race: Let's update ourselves on those NYM races... again.

Rat Races

We're back to look again at the various races this spring. While I've been forced to evacuate my home to avoid an impending flood and could dwell on the negative of life. I have baseball to distract and entertain me.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely In:

Willie Harris - I listed Hairston and Paulino as locks last week and held off of Harris. I can't keep doing that. Collins has said that Harris will make the team, he's a defensive OF and he's a lefty. The trifecta.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Collins hasn't yet gotten to see Murphy complete a DP. That has left Murphy a tick behind Castillo in the 2B race but Murphy OWNS a spot on the bench if he doesn't win the job as a starting player.

Chin-Lung Hu - Hu is playing well enough to appease me. I still want to see Turner play SS because he's definitely the better hitter. I've just resigned myself to the Japanese Ray Ordonezbacking up the middle infield.

Nick Evans - Evans has certainly made the case for himself to make the team. He's cooling off little but he's still turned out an overall good spring and might be in the discussion for the bench or perhaps as Beltran's temp. (Hairston has the edge on that though)

Lucas Duda - Boy do the Mets REALLY want to keep him with the big club. He's hit REALLY well and is definitely in the discussion for being Beltran's temporary replacement. Duda will be with the Mets in 2011 but might not be right out of camp.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Getting the moniker of E-Miss is not helping him. Castillo playing a little better isn't either. Mets might need to be willing to let this Rule 5 pick go back to Canada.

The Rotation:

Stock Up:

Dillon Gee - Gee had a nearly perfect outing yesterday. That ups his stock... but he's still looking at being the #6 option.

Stock Down:

Chris Capuano - Chris has a rougher looking outing this week. I think it wasn't bad enough to make him fall from the lead for the 5th starter but with Capuano having a bad outing and Gee having a good one, Chris is on notice.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is the new LOOGY. Tankerseley has failed to impress and O'Connor and Misch aren't as good. I think that battle is over.

Stock Up:

Manny Accosta - I think he's back to one of the more likely names.

Jason Isringhausen - I think just about everyone wants to see Izzy succeed and return to the Mets in 2011.

Stock Down:

Ryota Iggarashi - He's looking like his power pitching is improved but that he's still a bit rough around the edges. He'd be well served by going to AAA and honing.

Taylor Buchholz - I like him but he's just got control issues that worry me. I don't know if I'm fully confident in him. I also don't know if I'd take Taylor over Pedro Beato, Manny Accosta or Jason Isringhausen.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Luis Castillo - Luis Castillo is heating up and is the leading candidate for the starting job... BECAUSE HE'S EARNING IT. I still don't see him winning it because I don't think he gives the Mets the best chance of winning. It just seems to me, that if he CAN hit around .300 and get on base often, he'll be fine even with his occasional sloppy fielding.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been hitting the ball well this spring. He just hasn't gotten the chance to prove he can field. I think that Collins WANTS Murphy to win the job. I think Alderson is willing to drop Castillo if he agrees that Murphy deserves it. We just need to hope that Murphy shows a good glove when that opportunity finally comes.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is going to the minors. Not even a question. He's just had a good enough spring that he has entered the discussion for the future. I wonder if the Mets would see Valdespin as a Reyes replacement... OR... maybe Havens has competition for the 2012 starting 2B job.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Brad has fallen off the charts in terms of expectations. I think he might even be looking up at Justin Turner in the 2B race.

Justin Turner - Turner has proven he can field 2B but he hasn't hit the ball enough to impress and to win the job he needed to hit A LOT.

Phlavio's 25

Lineup: 8

1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)

2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)

3. David Wright, 3B (R)

4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S) [Ike Davis, 1B (L)]

5. Ike Davis, 1B (L) [Jason Bay, LF (R)]

6. Jason Bay, LF (R) [Lucas Duda, RF (L)]

7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)

8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Bench: 5

1. Ronny Paulino, C (R)

2. Scott Hairston, OF (R)

3. Willie Harris, OF (L)

4. Chin-Lung Hu, IF (R)

5. Nick Evans, 1B/OF (R)

Rotation: 5

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

4. Chris Young, SP (R)

5. Chris Capuano, SP (L)

Bullpen: 7

1. CL - Francisco Rodriguez, RP (R)

2. SU - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

3. MR - Manny Accosta, RP (R)

4. MR - Jason Isringhausen, RP (R)

5. MR - Pedro Beato, RP (R)

6. LOOGY - Tim Byrdak, RP (L)

7. LRP - Pat Misch, RP (L)

Tight Times of 2012

Let us imagine that the Wilpon's financial constraints forced the Mets to not sign a single free agent in 2012. They can re-sign players through arbitration, but with 40 Million coming off the books, the Mets can re-invest only 10. What would the Mets look like?

2012 Lineup:
1. Angel Pagan - CF (S)
2. Josh Thole - C (L)
3. David Wright - 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis - 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay - LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez - RF (L)
7. Ruben Tejada - SS (R)
8. Reese Havens - 2B (L)

2012 Rotation:
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)
3. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
4. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
5. Jenrry Mejia, SP (R)

2012 Bullpen:
1. CL: Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
2. SU: Manny Alvarez, RP (R)
3. MR: D.J. Carrasco, RP (R)
4. MR: Pat Misch, RP (L)
5. LOOGY: Mark Cohoon, RP (L)
6. LR: Dillon Gee, RP (R)

Bench:
1. Mike Nickeas, C (R)
2. Daniel Murphy, Util (L)
3. Matt Den Dekker, OF (L)
4. Jordany Valdespin, IF (L)
5. Nick Evans, 1B/LF (R)

Lineup: You might notice that Reyes is gone... Beltran is gone and that Reese Havens has been promoted to starting 2B. I guess I'm showing a little optimism that Havens and Martinez could be healthy, but if they are... I would think that lineup could still be capable of winning some games. Thole is built in the #2 hitter mold, Martinez can protect Bay and the others and Havens and Tejada would not be an awful bottom of the order.

Rotation: This has an 80% chance of ACTUALLY BEING the rotation. The fact is... that Roy Oswalt is the biggest FA starter that will be available. Now.. the Mets might move on from Pelfrey or Harvey could be ready quickly, but a rotation starting with Santana and ending with Mejia is probably a step and a half up from the rotation now.

Bullpen: This is where the Mets show their needs. I suppose the Mets could stay pretty meager and bring back a Byrdak or an Isringhausen etc... The Mets don't have a lot of MLB level pitching near the majors and that includes the relievers.

Bench: First, where is Duda? Second, why are Valdespin and Den Dekker on the team? Duda is a lefty and the Mets cannot afford to have Murphy and Duda on the bench. Murphy simply plays more positions. Valdespin is the guy who can play the middle infield positions and doesn't have a high ceiling that would be ruined by a year on the bench. Den Dekker is a pure CF, where Nieuwenhuis is not. Add to this that Captain Kirk could be more of a starting MLB player given the opportunity and Den Dekker winds up on the bench.

Hopefully the Mets are purchased by a wealthy person who wants to let Alderson and company have free rights to build the Mets as they need to make them win. Here's hoping...

Over/Under:

If you play fantasy baseball, and I'd bet that if you are reading this, your either my mother... or you do, then you know that Yahoo and ESPN and CBS and every other fantasy sports web-site will predict before the season how players will do. These predictions come courtesy of ESPN.com and reflect the expert opinions of their fantasy gurus. Today's article is a diversion into where I see the Mets finishing... in relation to their predictions.

Jose Reyes, SS (S):

• Avg: .286 (Even)
  
• Slg: .441 (Even)
• Runs: 86 (Over)
  
• HRs: 12 (Under)
• RBIs: 56 (Even)
• BBs: 42 (Over... I hope)
• SBs: 36 (Over)

Jose's numbers from ESPN reflect him not having a healthy season. That might be fair but I think that we should be basing the predictions on Jose being healthy as he seems to be that now. His HR totals should not be above 10 if he's still a Met for the full season but at the same time, Jose can and will steal more than 36 bags. If he's traded... all of these stats change... but... I probably then have to hate him.

Angel Pagan, CF (S):

• Avg: .283 (Even)
• Slg: .417 (Even)
  
• Runs: 76 (Over)
• HRs: 9 (Over)
  
• RBIs: 62 (Over)
• BBs: 40 (Even)
  
• SBs: 30 (Under)

Angel Pagan is predicted to have an okay year but I get confused when his power numbers are lower than Reyes and his production of Runs and RBIs falls short of Jason Bay. I would also say that hitting 2nd all year would likely cut his freedom on the bases as the Mets don't want to take the bats away from Wright, Beltran, Davis and Bay with a caught stealing.

David Wright, 3B (R):

• Avg: .294 (Over)
• Slg: .517 (Even)
• Runs: 95 (Over)
• HRs: 25 (Over)
• RBIs: 100 (Over)
• BBs: 76 (Even)
• SBs: 19 (Even)

Prior to the injury plagued seasons of Beltran and Reyes and the move to Citi-Field, David Wright was a defacto top 10 fantasy pick. He's still somewhere in the top 20 but he's definitely dropped. The average has been hurt, but as I've written before, that is partially due to a lack of production and support (Beltran hasn't exactly been there to back him up so often.) The HR totals are predicted to drop and the Runs and RBIs stay in the good but not GREAT range and I disagree. If Beltran and Reyes are healthy and Bay is some version of what he USED to be, Wright has a BIG year.

Carlos Beltran, RF (S):

• Avg: .276 (Under)
• Slg: .469 (Over)
• Runs: 63 (Even)
• HRs: 18 (Over)
• RBIs: 68 (Over)
• BBs: 64 (Even)
• SBs: 10 (Under)

Say what you will about Beltran's knees. When he's been healthy... he hits. Though a .276 average seems a bit high. He's much more of a .250-.260 hitter. However hitting (all year) in the middle of the Mets order should net Carlos more than 68 RBIs as he's likely to hit closer to 25-30 HRs if he's healthy. HOWEVER... face facts and learn that Carlos Beltran will never reach double digit SBs again.

Ike Davis, 1B (L):

• Avg: .272 (Even)
• Slg: .473 (Over)
• Runs: 74 (Even)
• HRs: 22 (Over)
• RBIs: 75 (Over)
• BBs: 78 (Even)
• SBs: 2 (Even)

ESPN bothers me when I look at Ike Davis. They take his 2010 numbers and replicate them for a full season and call it a prediction. This assumes that Ike Davis has REACHED his ceiling after 1 year. It doesn't touch on the fact that he's a 30 HR threat or that he's going to be hitting behind Wright and Beltran (maybe Bay) and the fact he was a consistent producer in his ROOKIE year.

Jason Bay, LF (R):

• Avg: .268 (Even)
• Slg: .454 (Even)
• Runs: 85 (Even)
• HRs: 19 (Even)
• RBIs: 84 (Even)
• BBs: 74 (Even)
• SBs: 12 (Even)

If Bay is healthy and hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup all year... these numbers look accurate. This also assumes his 2010 was an aberration and that the Mets other players stay healthy. Most Met fans will gladly take these numbers from Jason Bay in his second year. Anything is better than what he did (while healthy) in 2010.

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L):

• Avg: .280 (Even)
• Slg: .445 (Even)
• Runs: 37 (Over)
• HRs: 7 (Over)
• RBIs: 38 (Over)
• BBs: 21 (Over)
• SBs: 4 (Even)

At first glance you might think I differ GREATLY with ESPN. That isn't totally true. We differ on ONE key factor. I see Murphy as the starting second baseman, and they see him on the bench. On the bench, their numbers are accurate but over a full season you can probably multiply a lot of those numbers by 2... even if he's platooning.

Josh Thole, C (L):

• Avg: .270 (Even)
• Slg: .382 (Even)
• Runs: 36 (Over)
• HRs: 5 (Even)
• RBIs: 36 (Over)
• BBs: 35 (Over)
• SBs: 2 (Over)

ESPN predicts that Thole and Paulino will be an even split. I can't agree less. Thole is a lefty and that will get him into more games alone. Add that Thole is the "Catcher of the Future" and that he hits for a higher average and is more consistent and I think we all know who is getting the lion's share of the playing time. The other issue I see is that ESPN over-looks the fact that Thole can run... for a catcher. He's not going to steal bases because of his speed, but because he has enough speed to take advantage of sloppy play.

Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

• ERA: 4.00 (Under)
• Whip: 1.39 (Even)
• BBs: 68 (Even)
• Ws: 13 (Even)
• Ks: 113 (Even)
• IP: 207 (Even)

ESPN is pretty accurate with Big Pelf. I'm not sure if anyone in America looks at Mike and sees an Ace. I do see a pitcher who can keep you in games and maybe be looked at as a #3 pitcher. Even so... I don't see Pelfrey having a 20 win season for the Mets in 2011 and those 13 wins aren't a sure thing either.

Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

• ERA: 4.36 (Under)
• Whip: 1.46 (Under)
• BBs: 69 (Even)
• Ws: 11 (Over)
• Ks: 153 (Even)
• IP: 190 (Over)

Niese is the closest thing to an Ace that the Mets have this season. He can get K's at a decent clip and has shown the ability to be dominant. That ERA well North of 4.00 is a bit extreme from Jon as it seems ESPN predicts he should be getting worse with more time in the pros. I guess they view his tired arm issues as a sign he wasn't that good instead of a sign he'd thrown more innings then he had been used to.

R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.89 (Even)
• Whip: 1.30 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 10 (Over)
• Ks: 107 (Over)
• IP: 199 (Over)

Really ESPN? If there is one thing I've heard about knuckle-ballers it's that their arms get tired. ESPN doesn't see Dickey as the work-horse I believe he will be. He's not an Ace, nobody is saying that. He is a pitcher who can pitch deep into games. Also... if that slow knuckler is working that means he can be a fastball/change-up pitcher... except his balls dance a WHOLE lot more. If he can do that... the K's will follow.

Chris Young, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.88 (Even)
• Whip: 1.31 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Even)
• Ks: 77 (Even)
• IP: 102 (Even)

Now, I could take issue with Young's numbers being poor, but I can't expect ESPN to predict that Chris Young will pitch 200 innings. His arm just hasn't been that healthy. However, you can probably take this half-year estimate and do the math to come up with what his numbers would be as he reaches 150... 180 innings pitched. I like Young. It's hard not to. I'm hoping that he can just stay healthy.

Chris Capuano, SP (L)

• ERA: 3.81 (Over)
• Whip: 1.26 (Over)
• BBs: 23 (Even)
• Ws: 5 (Over)
• Ks: 64 (Even)
• IP: 85 (Even)

It seems that ESPN predicts Capuano AND Gee will both win that 5th starter job. I'll forgive them because it lets me not put Gee here. Capuano looks like the best option for 5th starter right now. He isn't great but he'll keep us in games. The thing with ESPN is that they adjusted his ERA and Whip to factor Capuano ALSO relieving. The more he starts... the higher the ERA and Whip. When Santana comes back, Chris moves to the bullpen or the Mets will simply have other injured pitchers for him to replace.

Johan Santana, SP (L)*

• ERA: 3.13 (Over)
• Whip: 1.25 (Even)
• BBs: 33 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Over)
• Ks: 91 (Even)
• IP: 118 (Even)

Johan Santana will not pitch for the Mets until June (at the earliest) but he COULD get to 118 innings if he's back then. I'll point out that missing spring training and entering the year late, will not be the BEST FRIEND of his ERA but at the same time... if he getss those 118 innings, I think he'll get a few more wins. It all evens out.

I'm excited about the Mets season, even if it isn't one where my expectations are super high. I think that Collins and Alderson have the team on the right foot and if Santa's listening... maybe I even get new owners who know how to leave baseball to the baseball people.