Quit D!cking Around!

What is wrong with R.A. Dickey? Is his knuckle not knuckling? Is his beard not mannishly awesome? He's certainly not the same guy he was last season. What could have happened to New York's journeyman golden boy? I mean... in the off season he was everyone's favorite Met.

2010 vs. 2011:

Statistically the biggest issues for Dickey are a ballooning in his H/9 and rise in his BB/9. It's not a secret that the biggest adversary to a knuckleballer is going to be control. However... his walks have only gone from 2.2 to 3.2 (BB/9). Walking a little over 3 guys every 9 innings is not terrible. The big culprit is that he's giving up 3 extra hits per outing, going from 8.5 to 11.2 (H/9).

Beyond that... there's also luck. Last season Dickey had a fairly normal .280 BABIP. In 2011 he's 53 points higher. Part of the reason for this is the Gods and part of the reason is that people are hitting him HARDER. Opp SLG has gone up significantly. A 100 point rise is bound to coincide with him being hit harder and contributes to an inflated BABIP (but this time it's HIS fault).

So... what do we do? Rub an ointment on it? Change up the facial hair? Sacrifice a chicken to Jobu? I'm not Dan Warthen or an expert on pitching but it seems to me that the problem is either control, pitch selection or that hitters made an adjustment. The first two... we can deal with. If it's the third one, Dickey is on his own to make adjustments.

In the end I know from Wakefield that knuckleballers make dynamic relievers. So... perhaps it's Dickey who will move to the pen and not Capuano or Gee.

At Least You Have Your Health

The Mets have had years with more and more serious injuries. However, 2011 is quickly becoming another glimpse at how abysmal the NY Met training staff seem to be. Bay... Pagan... Davis... Wright... I won't list Young or Mejia, those things will happen but it seems that we just can't get all our ducks in a row.

Now... the Mets have been close to healthy but if they actually could get ALL of the above players healthy at the same time it becomes a different team. Firstly, the pitching staff + Sanatana is much improved. Second, The teams speed combination of Reyes, Pagan and Wright is solid and scary. Murphy hitting in the 7th hole where he should be, Turner and Paulino providing bench support, Pridie there for defensive replacement work... the list goes on. The Mets with all their current injuries are not a .500 baseball team but if everyone could stick together and get healthy, this team is better than a lot of people think.

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS (One of the best lead-off hitters in baseball)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (Switch hitter with speed and some power)
3. David Wright, 3B (Power hitter with great speed)
4. Carlos Beltran, RF (Great hitter with great instincts)
5. Jason Bay, LF (Powerful righty bat)
6. Ike Davis, 1B (Powerful lefty bat and best 1B glove in baseball)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (Solid hitter and hard worker)
8. Josh Thole, C (Contact Oriented Catcher)

Rotation:
1. Johan Santana (Lefty with good stuff and great control)
2. Mike Pelfrey (A solid #3 pitcher)
3. Jonathon Niese (A good young pitcher who has potential for more)
4. R.A. Dickey (A knuckleballer who is gritty)
5. Dillon Gee (A solid inning eater who has earned a spot)

Bullpen:
CL - Francisco Rodriguez (Workhorse closer)
SU - Taylor Buchholz (GREAT setup guy)
SU - Jason Isringhausen (Veteran with control and a diverse arsenal)
MR - Pedro Beato (Hard throwing young reliever)
MR - Bobby Parnell (Harder throwing young reliever)
MR - Tim Byrdak (Capable left specialist)
MR - Mike O'Connor (Another LOOGY arm)
LR - Chris Capuano (Solid long man and great vs. lefties)

Bench:
C, Ronny Paulino (Power righty bat and solid catcher)
1B/2B/SS/3B, Justin Turner (Solid hitter who can play many positions)
OF, Jason Pridie (Good 4th OF)
OF, Scott Hairston (Veteran OF with power)
IF, Luis Hernandez (Defensive replacement)

Ask The Fans

I run a fantasy league with far too many players and far too many teams. At any one time at least 500 players are floating around the 20 teams in the league and for non-paying owners we're all pretty involved, enthusiastic and aggressive. We're like a bunch of children arguing over the merits and flaws of various X-Men. However, I'd say that 16 out of 20 of the owners know their baseball and make sound arguments for things.

I asked them:

If the Mets are sellers at the deadline, and everyone was available, who would your trade for and what would you offer?

I closed commenting from Met fans (the majority of the league) and let the fans of various other teams give their opinions on what they'd give for who.

Atlanta:

Mr. Carter is a Brave fan who I've known for some years (purely online communication) and we've had mature and interesting debate on the NL East. This began on the Met message boards of ESPN and has continued largely into our fantasy league. Like most Brave fans, Mr. Carter loves himself some Bravo prospects. However for Jose Reyes... here is what he's come up with:

Atlanta Gets:
SS - Jose Reyes

NY Mets Get:
SP - Arodys Vizcaino
SP - Chris Masters
SP - Dimaster Delgado

Sorry I just can’t find any way to rationalize to myself giving up Teheran, Minor, Delgado, Salcedo, Perez, or Lipka for a rental player. Depending on needs Christian Bethancourt could be a target for the Mets. He hasn’t done much so far in the minors but is still really young and has monster upside as a catcher. Ive seen reports that said he’d probably have the best arm in baseball if he came up now but wouldn’t be able to hit.Frankly, the Mets would be stupid to take this deal and I think Mr. Carter knows it.

The largest issue is that all of the players he's offered are in A+ baseball. This, in turn, means that none of them can contribute in 2011 or 2012. While none of the players he's listed are worthless I think that Brave fans would delude themselves if they thought that they could get Reyes without giving up one of the: Teheran bunch. Add to this that the Mets trading Reyes within the NL East would be near impossible and that price-tag goes up.

Detroit:

I met Mr. Oom as he came into the league in the middle of year 1. He wasn't super baseball savvy at first but thanks to the insanity of the league I like to think this Tiger fan has rekindled his love of baseball minutia.

Detroit Gets:
SS - Jose Reyes

NY Mets Get:
SP - Andrew Olliver
SP - Charlie Furbush
OF - Daniel Fields
3B - Nick Castellanos

Third base is basically a black hole of death now that Brandon Inge has proved to be an average/below average fielder (which was once his only saving grace). Batting near the mendoza line, a rough K/BB, and with more limited range and erratic throws, there's not much to like barring yesterday's game winning triple over Minnesota. Every dog has his day. Jhonny Peralta has been surprisingly great for the Tigers, and a move to third would make him even better!

This package makes a lot more sense for the Mets. Olliver and Furbush are good AAA pitchers with solid upside. Fields and Castellanos make little sense for the Mets as they play positions the Met farm has depth at, but that isn't the end of the world. Mr. Oom who made this package goes on to say that he'd go after Wright as well but would balk at giving up Jacob Turner. The rest of the league agreed that Turner would need to be part of the deal if Wright were on the table.

New York, AL:

I've known Mr. Reitman for years and years. We met when we were in Elementary school... or maybe even earlier. He's probably the guilty party when it comes to my insane following of baseball. Sure, he's a grubby Yankee fan. Sure, he cheats at All-Star Baseball 2001. Sure, he will never admit that Scott Brosius was inferior to Robin Ventura, but he isn't as bad as MOST Yankee fans.

NY Yankees Get:
SP - Mike Pelfrey

NY Mets Get:
SP - Nik Turley
RP - Fernando Hernandez

or

NY Yankees Get:
SP - R.A. Dickey

NY Mets Get:
RP - Fernando Hernandez
SP - Zachary Nuding

or

NY Yankees Get:
OF/DH - Carlos Beltran

NY Mets Get:
SP - David Phelps
3B - Robert Lyerly

or

NY Yankees Get:
SS - Jose Reyes

NY Mets Get:
SP - David Phelps
SP - Nik Turley
SP - Chase Whitley

R.A. Dickey is probably only worth a couple C-Level fillers or maybe a decent RP... meaning not a top prospect but an RP doing well. Beltran is worth a couple middle B prospects but no more than two. I'd give up a decent B and a C for Pelfrey and probably a trio of Bs for Reyes. Reyes is worth more but we have no opening.

Mr. Reitman... NO opening? I'm sorry but I wouldn't be thrilled to have the Captain holding SS for the next few years and players like Reyes don't come along frequently. Less frequently do they get traded by big-market clubs. The key to most of these deals is that the Yankees aren't giving up "A" level prospects but they are giving up players who could impact the club in the somewhat near-ish future. The Beltran trade is the only one that looks remotely acceptable to me.

In conclusion, the Mets want to make some trades but getting top prospects back is not a sure thing. Also... UNDERSTAND... that other fans don't value our players as highly as we do. Likely if we were asked about acquiring THEIR players we'd balk at sending Wilmer Flores, Matt Harvey or Jeurys Familia. It's reality.

PLATOON

Before the season started a certain blogger (ME) might have mentioned that he wanted a certain player (MURPHY) to platoon with a righty but basically get 85% of the playing time. This blogger said this because despite Brad Emaus' supposed hitting ability and Chin-Lung Hu's defense, the Met pitching would never be enough to win games on their own. So... the solution was that we needed more hitting. More hitting = Daniel Murphy.

Defensively, Murphy has his faults. He's a bit too aggressive and tends to look less than balletic out in the field. Turner himself is also not exactly the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith. The fact is... You don't need to have an all-star defensive whiz at second. You don't need to be super stong up the middle. No Keith Hernandez... You don't. What you do need, is players that can hit. You think too many Met fans miss Rey Ordonez and his wimpy bat? Maybe a few, but you get my point... at least I hope you do. Murphy/Turner give the Mets a combo at second of a righty and a lefty who can handle a bat and not completely butcher the field. I only wish that the Mets/Terry Collins/Santa/ or... Whoever is making the calls could have come up with this a few weeks sooner.

Since starting this post, last week, Ike Davis was hurt and the Mets now have Murphy at first and Turner at second in full-time roles. I won't read too much into Turner's big night with the bat yesterday but I will say that it's pretty telling that the Mets are using these players to recover from losing their best offensive weapon from the early going. Now... Murphy and Turner do not a Davis make, but they've been solid.

Now... a new and strangely happy question: Does this mean we can get rid of Chin-Lung Hu or Willie Harris?

Probably not, but I want it bad.

Fernando Martinez: Should I say that his promotion bothers me? Well, it does. Not because I want Kirk Nieuwenhuis up (Frankly Pridie deserves the playing time he's getting) but because other players in AAA make much more sense. Lucas Duda for one... Nick Evans for another. Carrying a 3rd Bench OF does not make sense. Martinez should be playing every day in AAA and not serving as a PH in the majors. Come on!

Up This Week:

From The Horse's Mouth - I Poll Fans on Trade Possibilities.

Full Strength - What Can a Full Met Lineup Provide?

Quit Dicking Around - What is Wrong With R.A. Dickey?

Young Guns - A Look Into the Minors.

P.S. Sorry for the break in posts I was splitting time working from home and being a nurse.

Spending $60 Million

With $68.3 Mil plus probably $10-15 Mil in smaller contracts and arbitration the Mets have between $36.7-41.7 Mil to spend. The goal is to keep their payroll beneath $120 Mil. That couldn't be that hard. What would that look like?

Free Agent Targets:

Jose Reyes, SS (29) - Jose is already popular with Met fans. Likes where he's living and is the best player available to fill the vacancy at SS. Matt Cerrone has said before that beyond Reyes, who else would the Mets be able to go after? The key will be Length and salary. I'm not going to ask for a Home Team discount from Reyes for size but I'm going to hold my offer to 5 years. (5 Years, $70 Mil: $10M, $12M, $15M, $16M, $17M)

C.J. Wilson, SP (31) - Wilson may not be the most exciting name out their but he'd be gifted the benefit of Citi Field and be joining a rotation that would include Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese. He's not going to need to be an Ace, just a #3 pitcher. With the weaker pitching class hitting free agency I know that his price will be inflated but pitching is NEEDED. (3 Years, $27 Mil: $9M, $9M, $9M)

Jonathan Papelbon, RP (31) - Mets will need a closer and are the only "Big Market" team who is likely to pay for one. Even so, I don't think the Mets throw K-Rod money at a closer again no matter what. Still, the Mets need to throw a good amount of money for a better closer like Jonathan. (3 Years, $30 Mil: $8M, $10M, $12M)

George Sherrill, RP (35) - Nothing fancy, but nothing fancy is necessary. The Mets need a lefty and Sherrill is probably the best lefty reliever available for 2012. He could probably slot in as a third setup man on the staff but I'll leave him in the ranks of the middle relievers. The question is how big a contract can you give an aging lefty reliever? (2 Years, $6 Mil: $3M, $3M)

Javier Lopez, RP (34) - Here is another big move. I'm looking at signing TWO lefty relievers. Why? Well, because the Mets have been handicapped for too long by not having enough lefties in their bullpen. Most teams have 2-3 lefties to spot through a game to make the matchups favor them. The Mets need to run Tim Byrdak out there for 3 batters because they only have the one lefty. (I know O'Connor is on the team now, but do you count him? I don't.) (3 Years, $7 Mil: $3M, $2M, $2M)

From The Minors:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CL (L) - Captain Kirk is tearing up AAA and looking like he might replace Angel Pagan sooner than later. He's got SOME power and SOME speed but he's not Reyes or Davis. He looks like a 15 HR, 20 SB player who is a good fielder and solid all-around player. He projects as more of a corner OF with his speed but between he and Fernando Martinez both being fringe CF guys I think the OF defense won't suffer. Plus Angel moves back to the bench as the 4th OF guy.

Fernando Martinez, RF (L) - The forever prospect gets his legit shot at making the team. Because I'm the one writing this I'm going to say that he does succeed and in the spring both he and Nieuwenhuis push Angel Pagan into a reserve role. Fernando's power and production may not be the 30 HR range that I used to see... but... it could easily be above 20 and who knows how high from there.

Matt Harvey, SP (R) - Matt Harvey is still pitching in Port St. Lucie. Why am I projecting him into the starting rotation? With Mejia's injury and the extremely weak starting pitching market for 2012 Harvey has a shot to make the rotation next spring. It will be a fair competition between he, Cohoon and a few others to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Notice that I've cut ties with Mike Pelfrey before the season.

Mark Cohoon, SP (L) - Cohoon loses the battle with Harvey for a spot in the rotation but the finesse lefty is reliable enough to give a long relief job and a third lefty arm to the bullpen. Cohoon's style is well suited to long-relief as he should never be walking the ballpark and letting the game get out of hand (like Ollie Perez might. Cohoon could look to replace Dickey in 2013, though I give that nod to Jenrry Mejia.

Lineup: 8
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
3. C.J. Wilson, SP (L)
4. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
5. Matt Harvey, SP (R)
Bullpen: 7
CL - Jonathan Papelbon, RP (R)
SU - Taylor Buchholz, RP (R)
SU - Pedro Beato, RP (R)
MR - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR - Javier Lopez, RP (L) MR - George Sherrill, RP (L)
LR - Mark Cohoon, SP (L)

Bench: 5
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Angel Pagan, OF (S)
Lucas Duda, OF/1B (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Nick Evans, OF/1B/3B (R)

2012 Payroll: $113.7 Mil

YOU WANT MORE?!?

For the sake of this analogy Gruel is Jose Reyes and Oliver Twist is the Met fans. Also in this case the fat man with the pot of gruel and the loud voice is Met management crying poverty. Actually... they aren't crying poverty, that's simply what everyone else is saying. What is being said?

"The Mets don't have the MONEY to re-sign Jose Reyes."

Let me be the first to call B.S. on this. If the Mets are going to have a $120 Million dollar payroll they'll have just under $60 Million to spend before the re-sign arbitrate etc... With all arbitration assumed I'd estimate $45 Million still free. Is there no room for Reyes in that money? Wait... maybe they'll be too busy getting pitching.

• Chris Carpenter, 37
• Roy Oswalt, 34
• Ryan Dempster, 35
• C.J. Wilson, 31
• Edwin Jackson, 28
• Mark Buerhle, 33

Above is a small list of some of the BETTER starters available in free agency. All I can help seeing is that the Mets might as well save that $45 Million for 2013 if they want only pitchers... but while they're doing that, maybe they should spend part of it on one of the most popular players on the club.

Jeff Wilpon and company have legal woes and all of that, but they are not exactly going to send out a baseball team with a payroll beneath $100 Million in New York City. The next time you hear Evan Roberts talk about it on WFAN. Call up and call him out on his B.S. Then wait for Steve Somers to come onto the air, he's the only one I like.

Save Reyes!!!

Up This Week:

Let's Be Silly - I'm Gonna Spend Those $60 Million... and Have Some Fun.

Platoon - Visiting Turner and Murphy and Giving the New Platoon a Grade.

Re-Alignment - Like Any Good Mechanic I Have to Check the Rotation.

Minor Qualms - Let's Take the Rose Colored Specs Off, Shall We?

Uh... did you say 'yutes'?

Jenrry Mejia, 22: Today's Minor League report starts with the mention of the injury to Jenrry Mejia. You already know about what happened and that he needs Tommy John surgery. You've even heard moronic speculation that he'll now be magically relegated to the bullpen. I can only tell you that the Mets could ill afford to have their top pitching prospect hit this type of road block. Today's post will instead focus on the pitchers who are HEALTHY in the Met minors.

Chris Schwinden, 25: Schwinden is the only starting pitcher still in AAA who has pitched remotely well. There is little to nothing to fault him on his first 3 starts but his fourth outing was shaky and it may be that AAA is adjusting to Schwinden. Shcwinden is a control pitcher who relies on using the strike zone to make up for a low 90's fastball. His secondary offerings include a slider and a changeup. He's likely not more than a reserve starter or long reliever.

Mark Cohoon, 24: Again, three GREAT starts and then things start to un-ravel. Cohoon will look to rebound after his 5 ER outing on May 1st. Again... Cohoon has nothing to over-power anyone. His fastball sitting in the high 80s. His secondary pitches (curveball and changeup) are both usable pitches and he projects as a useful back of the rotation starter with the added bonus of being a lefty. He's probably going to be going up to AAA as it seems the organization is going to be conservative. He should be in the majors in 2011 if he's needed.

Brandon Moore, 25: I talked about Moore a lot last year. He was VERY good in Savanah, okay in Port St. Lucie and TERRIBLE in AA. Again in AA he's proving to be up to the challenge there. The term "Junk-Baller" might be used for Moore who throws a middle 80s fastball, with a variety of off-speed pitches that include a slurve. He's not a top prospect or someone who people imagine will make a large impact in the majors but he could come in and be a good reliever against fastball hitters.

Bradley Holt, 25: Brad's 2008 was GREAT. His 2009... feh. His 2010 was JUST bad. His 2011... well it's actually pretty nice all things being equal. He's got his velocity back up and he's keeping people off base. His 4th start (notice a trend?) was poor and the opponents hit .462 against him that game. OVERALL... he's held the enemy to a .192 AVG. That is pretty sweet. It was once thought that Holt could be a front of the rotation guy. I think he could still be a #3 or #4 pitcher in the MLB. I tend to wear rose color glasses though.

Robert Carson, 22: Because of his age and build I think Carson might be the best guy currently in AA. He's a lefty and at 6'3" he's right around the area that coaches look for in players. He's another victim of the 4th outing blues. He's another Fastball/Slider/Changeup guy but being a lefty with a low 90's fastball he could develop into something pretty useful at the major league level. At the very least a useful lefty bullpen arm. Because he's only 22 he's likely to not get the call to the majors no matter what in 2011.

Jeurys Familia, 22: Familia lasted until his 5th start before having his bump in the road. Thankfully... he already rebounded nicely. He is striking out a player an inning and that is swell but what I love is his sub 1.00 WHIP. He just doesn't let people on base. His fastball is in the mid 90s and has developed a change and a slurve to compliment the pitch that so impressed scouts back in 2010's Spring Training. Familia hasn't really shown any flaws in A+ so far and a call to AA is only a matter of time.

Matthew Harvey, 22: So far Familia is the highest ceiling pitcher I listed. Familia looks like front-end starter but I don't think I'd call him an Ace. You know who I would call a future Ace? Matt Harvey. He's got a high 90s fastball and a few solid breaking pitches that are the reason he's striking out so many. The biggest issue he had before being drafted was his command and thus far it's been pretty solid. He's walking about 3 men per 9 innings which isn't excessive and he's looked like he's already too good for the hitters at A+.

Gregory Peavey, 23: Greg has been pretty solid in Savanah but he's not dominating the league that is known to be easier on pitchers. His start last night was his best so far. 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 BBs and 6 K's. He's got a fastball that reaches the middle 90s and a hard slider. Peavey is still to far from the majors for me to even venture a prediction of where he'll wind up but he's looking like he'll move up to the FSL either this year or to start next.

Erik Goeddel, 23: Another guy who shows promise that I can't rightly project too well. A hard throwing righty Goeddel has a shot to be a starter or a reliever depending on his development. Right now I can't say which is more likely. To go along with a fastball that I've seen described as a true + pitch, he has a solid curve ball that keeps hitters off balance. The Mets went over slot to get Erik and the expectations for him are reasonably high.