You Might Want To Check That Out

When your "Check Engine" light pops up, what do you do? Are you like my sister and I? Do you ignore it until something actually seems wrong? Do you take it to a garage and have the work on it? Do you break out the jacks and take a look on your own? It's usually a good idea to check these things out. Before my father blows his own gasket, NO, my car is fine. I thought it would be a good thing to take a quick check on the Mets. Sure the car has only been on the road for two weeks but lets see how she's holding up.

Checking Your Oil

"Hey Dad, why do we check the oil?"

"Well son... do you remember how the engine in your first car cracked in half and burned out?"

"Yeah."

"That's why."

"Oh..."

For this analogy, what is the oil if the Met team is the car? Well a team's engine is powered by pistons and most cars have 4, 6 or 8. Most baseball teams have 5, and we call them starters. The goal is to keep these starters healthy so they can make 30+ starts a year and pitch 6-7 innings a game. You keep the starters healthy by giving them breaks and protecting them with relievers.

As you've heard the Mets have LOTS of relievers right now. Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell, Taylor Buchholz, Jason Isringhausen, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, D.J. Carasco and Ryota Iggarashi make up an 8 man bull-pen. The issue is that our starters, well.. Pelfrey and Niese... have been burning up too quickly and this has left the bullpen taxed.

The day off helps but I expect another oil swap in the next three days.

Testing The Shocks

Actually, the Mets have been pretty good in this department. Beltran is healthy, Reyes is healthy, Pagan is healthy and I haven't heard Luis Castillo complain about an injury for almost a blessed month (might have to do with him not playing on any one's team). The Mets have more than a few guys who you worry about their legs and their overall leg health. For now... all is quiet and quiet is good.

Replacing Break Pads

The key to defensive driving is your breaking. The Met breaks need work. They have lost at least two or three games because of sloppy defense and mental lapses. The odd thing is that I can't blame any of it on Daniel Murphy. That means that the Mets are getting gaffes from some of the surer hands in the field. (Well... one was Duda, but you get the point.) Terry Collins is supposed to be "Old School" and I hope that means he can get the Mets to be a little better about the basic defensive fundamentals.

Secret Weapon

Do we have a secret weapon in our arsenal. Can we push the "Go Go" button and flash from last to first on the supernatural chemical power of illegal engine enhancements? Ask Manny Ramirez.

Actually the Mets DO have some not-so-secret weapons they could try:

Jason Bay - Not the secret weapon I'd necessarily bank a season of success on, but he's better than Willie Harris or Scott Hairston. Jason Bay should provide and offensive boost to the lineup when he returns later this month. The key will be, seeing how much power and production he ACTUALLY provides. 2010 numbers will NOT cut it with me, the Mets or the Major Leagues.

Johan Santana - Santana will not be back until June (at the earliest) and that means that he's not a quick fix by any stretch. HOWEVER... if the Mets are still close in June/July then they have a pretty good "Go Go" button to press. The key will be that Santana is too valuable to hurt if 2011 is only a dream. They may want to save their Ace for 2012 and I can't blame them if they'd want to.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia has only pitched 1 game this season but 6 innings without giving up a run is a pretty good sign. Only 3 hits, 2 walks and 6 K's are also pretty good signs. Mejia is going to come up for the Mets in 2011. The question is, WHEN? The Mets will NOT bring him up for a spot start. Not with Dillon Gee around and pitching pretty well. The Mets will wait until he's ready to hold down a job for keeps. I love the idea of bringing up Mejia when Santana returns. It takes the pressure off both of them and that would be nice.

Matt Harney - The people at MmlB are not going to be happy with me. They only read the blog when I beg them, so I'll just avoid doing that today. Matt Harvey is so far from the majors he doesn't have a head-shot with a team cap. Yet after two FLAWLESS starts in the minors (racking up 17 K's in A+) he looks like he's a pretty good "Fast Track" Candidate. He's 22, pitched in college, has great stuff and is blowing away the talented bats in advanced A. Even the conservative Minor League evaluator would project Harvey to move up to AA in 2011. Might this mean that he could see the Majors in 2011? YES, it might. This isn't Sandy Alderson's M.O. but you have to imagine that if Harvey has this level of success in Binghamton, the Mets will have to think about how close his major league future might be.

8 Nights of Presents

This off season has not been Christmas for Mets fans. We didn't get one GREAT-BIG present, like the Phillies, who got Lee. The Mets got lots of smaller gifts this off-season.

Night 1 - Omar Minaya Demoted:
October 4th 2010

The Mets started their off-season with the ability to make a number of additions via subtraction. The first I credit to the Wilpons. On October 4th Minaya was demoted from his role as GM and the Mets fans knew from that moment that things would change.

Night 2 - Mets Hire Alderson:
October 27th 2010

The Mets then went out and got a GM who was skilled at working on a budget. Somebody who would not extend bloated (long-term) contracts to aging players to find a quick fix. From here on out... it was Sandy's show and I think it's been a good one to watch.

Night 3 - Mets Hire Terry Collins:
November 21st 2010

The Mets opted to not back the fan favorite Wally Backman and instead go with the more moderate Terry Collins. What do I mean by moderate? The Mets wanted someone who would inspire the Mets and get them motivated, but Backman is a little TOO fiery and lacks experience.

Night 4 - Mets Sign Ronny Paulino:
December 7th 2010

Two reasons this makes my list. 1) Paulino is a good catcher and a strong hitter. 2) This said to me that the Mets were going to let Thole become the starting catcher. I really believe that Thole will be a PLUS player and that Paulino is the right type of COMPLIMENT player the Mets needed. Had we gone with Buck or Martin then Thole is back to being a backup.

Night 5 - Mets Sign Chris Young:
January 19th 2011

I harassed Matt Cerrone for weeks begging him for word on Young. I knew that he was the best of the realistic options for the Mets this off season. He had the best floor to ceiling ratio in terms of safety and potential for large reward. Thus far he looks like he could be the #2 pitcher behind Niese.

Night 6 - Mets Release Luis Castillo:
March 18th 2011

The Mets made a tougher call then you might think releasing Castillo. They didn't have a lock on who would replace him, he had had a good spring, and they will end up paying him millions no matter what. Yet the thing Alderson needed to do was to distance himself from Minaya's mistakes and move on to new blood.

Night 7 - Phillies SIGN Luis Castillo:
March 21st 2011

Now... Castillo is probably not going to drop a pop-up vs. the Mets and turn the tide of the Phillies season into the gutter. Though... he might. What this means to me in a metaphoric way, is that the Phillies have attached themselves to a player who has a lot of negativity attached to him and limited things he can bring to the table.

Night 8 - Mets Cut Oliver Perez:
March 21st 2011

I said the day that Alderson was hired, "He has to do two things to earn respect from Met Fans. Release Ollie and Castillo." Now... where Castillo was simply no longer helping... Perez actually HURT the team with his continued presence. I'll also admit that I was one of the people who didn't think the Mets over-payed for him when they signed him. HOWEVER, I've apologized for that already and have been calling for his release since last off-season.

Up This Week:

Dream Ownership: I fantasize about some fantasitcal Mets ownership options.

Shake Your High Knee: I'll interview Carlos Beltran's bum knee and get his take on Carlos' 2011.

The Key-Master: Who is the Vinz Clortho to the Met's Zuul?

And They're Off: Maybe by Friday I'll be able to call the rest of the races?

Rat Races

We're back to look again at the various races this spring. While I've been forced to evacuate my home to avoid an impending flood and could dwell on the negative of life. I have baseball to distract and entertain me.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely In:

Willie Harris - I listed Hairston and Paulino as locks last week and held off of Harris. I can't keep doing that. Collins has said that Harris will make the team, he's a defensive OF and he's a lefty. The trifecta.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Collins hasn't yet gotten to see Murphy complete a DP. That has left Murphy a tick behind Castillo in the 2B race but Murphy OWNS a spot on the bench if he doesn't win the job as a starting player.

Chin-Lung Hu - Hu is playing well enough to appease me. I still want to see Turner play SS because he's definitely the better hitter. I've just resigned myself to the Japanese Ray Ordonezbacking up the middle infield.

Nick Evans - Evans has certainly made the case for himself to make the team. He's cooling off little but he's still turned out an overall good spring and might be in the discussion for the bench or perhaps as Beltran's temp. (Hairston has the edge on that though)

Lucas Duda - Boy do the Mets REALLY want to keep him with the big club. He's hit REALLY well and is definitely in the discussion for being Beltran's temporary replacement. Duda will be with the Mets in 2011 but might not be right out of camp.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Getting the moniker of E-Miss is not helping him. Castillo playing a little better isn't either. Mets might need to be willing to let this Rule 5 pick go back to Canada.

The Rotation:

Stock Up:

Dillon Gee - Gee had a nearly perfect outing yesterday. That ups his stock... but he's still looking at being the #6 option.

Stock Down:

Chris Capuano - Chris has a rougher looking outing this week. I think it wasn't bad enough to make him fall from the lead for the 5th starter but with Capuano having a bad outing and Gee having a good one, Chris is on notice.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is the new LOOGY. Tankerseley has failed to impress and O'Connor and Misch aren't as good. I think that battle is over.

Stock Up:

Manny Accosta - I think he's back to one of the more likely names.

Jason Isringhausen - I think just about everyone wants to see Izzy succeed and return to the Mets in 2011.

Stock Down:

Ryota Iggarashi - He's looking like his power pitching is improved but that he's still a bit rough around the edges. He'd be well served by going to AAA and honing.

Taylor Buchholz - I like him but he's just got control issues that worry me. I don't know if I'm fully confident in him. I also don't know if I'd take Taylor over Pedro Beato, Manny Accosta or Jason Isringhausen.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Luis Castillo - Luis Castillo is heating up and is the leading candidate for the starting job... BECAUSE HE'S EARNING IT. I still don't see him winning it because I don't think he gives the Mets the best chance of winning. It just seems to me, that if he CAN hit around .300 and get on base often, he'll be fine even with his occasional sloppy fielding.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been hitting the ball well this spring. He just hasn't gotten the chance to prove he can field. I think that Collins WANTS Murphy to win the job. I think Alderson is willing to drop Castillo if he agrees that Murphy deserves it. We just need to hope that Murphy shows a good glove when that opportunity finally comes.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is going to the minors. Not even a question. He's just had a good enough spring that he has entered the discussion for the future. I wonder if the Mets would see Valdespin as a Reyes replacement... OR... maybe Havens has competition for the 2012 starting 2B job.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Brad has fallen off the charts in terms of expectations. I think he might even be looking up at Justin Turner in the 2B race.

Justin Turner - Turner has proven he can field 2B but he hasn't hit the ball enough to impress and to win the job he needed to hit A LOT.

Phlavio's 25

Lineup: 8

1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)

2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)

3. David Wright, 3B (R)

4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S) [Ike Davis, 1B (L)]

5. Ike Davis, 1B (L) [Jason Bay, LF (R)]

6. Jason Bay, LF (R) [Lucas Duda, RF (L)]

7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)

8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Bench: 5

1. Ronny Paulino, C (R)

2. Scott Hairston, OF (R)

3. Willie Harris, OF (L)

4. Chin-Lung Hu, IF (R)

5. Nick Evans, 1B/OF (R)

Rotation: 5

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

4. Chris Young, SP (R)

5. Chris Capuano, SP (L)

Bullpen: 7

1. CL - Francisco Rodriguez, RP (R)

2. SU - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

3. MR - Manny Accosta, RP (R)

4. MR - Jason Isringhausen, RP (R)

5. MR - Pedro Beato, RP (R)

6. LOOGY - Tim Byrdak, RP (L)

7. LRP - Pat Misch, RP (L)

Spring Training Preview: The Battle for Bench

What could be more thrilling?

The battle to be one of 5 players selected to the 2011 New York Mets bench. A team that is expected by many to finish fourth in their division, sell off their stars and sell off their team. WOO! Who is going to be good enough to NOT be one of their 8 starting position players?

Above is a lovely graphic I put together (stealing graphics from MLB.com etc...) which will allow the average person to keep track. As names are eliminated I'll be placing a red X over their picture.

Ronny Paulino - C - 30:
Paulino isn't REALLY fighting for a bench spot. He's got a spot on the roster. HOWEVER, his face might be replaced by Josh Thole's if he has the better spring training. The reality is... Thole is a lefty and most pitchers are righties... so Paulino will likely not be the #1 catcher.
Red X Chances: 1%

Luis Castillo - 2B - 36:
Castillo IS owed $6,000,000.00 which is $5,999,995.00 more then I have in my wallet right now. He's also is a patient hitter who knows the game and can still field his position. The problem? Luis cannot field ANY other position. He also has no power and only REALLY hits well from one side of the plate.
Red X Chances: 78%

Scott Hairston - OF/1B - 31:
Scott is REALLY a corner OF but in a pinch he can man CF. I just wouldn't make a habit of it. He has become known as a timely hitter who makes the most of his ABs. He doesn't necessarily have great contact or power but I'd have some confidence in him being smart with a late inning AB in a close game.
Red X Chances: 11%

Daniel Murphy - 1B/2B/3B/LF - 26:
There are few situations in which Murphy does not make the team. One being Luis Castillo being the starter and Brad Emaus the backup. However as long as Murphy can field the position odds say that he'll be part of the solution to the 2B dilemma and at least have a role on the bench. Now... he is actually likely to win the starting job right now... so maybe I'll make him a blue and orange X or something.
Red X Chances: 18%

Willie Harris - Util - 33:
Willie can play all three OF positions, 3B, SS, and 2B and he has some speed. He's likely to make the team... even if I don't want him to. Add to this he's a lefty bat and has a little pop and he makes sense. So... why do I not want him? I want Duda... that's why. So I'm irrational and like certain players even if they fill less of a role.
Red X Chances: 16%

Justin Turner - IF - 27:
Turner has a lot against him. He and Emaus are both righties. So only one will make the team (probably) and Emaus would have to be let go if he didn't. Turner can simply be moved to AAA. What Turner DOES have going for him is the ability to play SS. Now... he's not a whiz kid at SS. However he can play the position and Murphy/Emaus/Castillo cannot. So... there is an outside chance that Turner loses out on the backup 2B job and wins the backup SS job over HU... but not a GOOD chance.
Red X Chances: 84%

Brad Emaus - 2B/3B/1B - 25:
Brad Emaus was a Rule 5 pick. That means he has to stay with the MLB club all year or be sold back to Toronto. Emaus has a GREAT eye and makes good contact with some power. He's not a GREAT fielder, but he's a smart player and can handle 2B and 3B adequately. If Castillo or Murphy with the starting job this spring... he might be the favorite for the bench role. Or... HE might win the starting job.
Red X Chances: 23%

Chin-Lung Hu - SS/2B - 27:
What does Hu bring to the table? Defense, defense, defense, defense and a unique name. What doesn't he bring? Hitting. 3 years ago a friend of mine pointed Hu out to me as a potentially big prospect but... that hasn't panned out and likely won't. Hu is the favorite to backup for Jose Reyes but as I will say until the day he's cut... Turner is the better choice!
Red X Chances: 31%

Lucas Duda - LF/RF/1B - 25:
Duda is going to AAA. I see it, you see it, the whole world sees it. Not that it's the wrong move but I don't see what Duda has left to learn. He's not going to become a better fielder. He's already a fine hitter. He will likely never be quite a starter... but we have the more positionally flexible Hairston and Harris and they make more sense.
Red X Chances: 93%

Nick Evans - LF/RF/3B/1B - 25:
Evans got a BIG demotion last year and made up for it with a big year. This season the Mets... still don't have room for him. Scott Hairston is sitting above Evans for that bench role and Emaus and Turner likely edge him out of the backup IF roles. I do think he'll be up in 2011 but not for most of the season.
Red X Chances: 86%

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

The 18 Million Dollar Question

In 2010, the Pittsburgh Pirates total payroll was just south of $35,000,000. If Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were Pirates they’d account for over 50% of the teams total budget. As it is their 18 Million is a substantial 12% of the total Mets payroll. Consider that they are only a drop in the bucket for the Wilpons who have allegedly lost $500 Million to Bernie Madoff but it’s not like as a working adult I can look at those contracts and say, “Drop them, I would.”

I’m not a multi-millionaire and even if I were I don’t know if I’d be willing to let $18 Million go to waste. Oliver Perez has already refused to even help the situation by accepting a demotion to the minors so if he’s healthy and NOT a free agent he has to be on the 25-Man Roster. The same has not been asked of Castillo, but Castillo isn’t exactly going to get younger by returning to the minors. I bring Castillo up in this regard because I am disgusted by Perez’s refusal to make a sacrifice to help the team and I don’t know if Castillo would be willing to be creative. Rather than part with the Mets, perhaps the Mets allow Castillo to become a coach or special instructor or anything within the organization. Maybe the fact that he’s only a 3^rd of the cost made me a 3^rd as unhappy with him but I think Castillo has not been quite as negative an influence with the Mets… minus that one pop-up.

The question ends up being: What makes more sense? Let those 18 Million little pieces of paper float down into the sewer or to see if cheaper talent is also BETTER talent?

The Media has made up their mind. Perez and Castillo must go and will likely go. Baseball is a business but at a certain point winning means more than getting value out of poorly spent money. Not to mention all of the misdirected fan anger. Dropping the pair will earn Alderson a bump in the approval ratings from Met fans. However is it the player's fault they are being paid so much? I'll admit that Perez has dug his own grave here, but I think Castillo has been wrongly blamed for Omar Minaya's mistake.

What is the right course?

At this point I think Castillo and Perez just need to be dropped, but that won't happen until after this spring.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Who's On Second?

Biographies and Images courtesy of MLB.com

There will be an open competition in 2011 for the starting second baseman on the Mets. Incumbent, Luis Castillo, well into the twilight of his career is forced to attempt to fend off the likes of Daniel Murphy, Brad Eamus and Justin Turner or face being cut from the team. I’m going to look at the players and evaluate who has the best shot at winning and why.

Luis Castillo, 35

Luis Antonio Castillo Donato graduated from Colegio San Benito Abad in the Dominican Republic in 1991...Named the Marlins' Most Valuable Player by the South Florida Chapter of the BBWAA in 1999 and again in 2002.

For all of his faults Luis Castillo does a few things very well. He takes a walk with the best of them and can advance a runner like nobody’s business. At this point in his career he just doesn’t do much else. Luis never had power. However at one point he WAS a prolific base stealer and defensive star. That best of times was 11 years ago and all but a distant memory for all of us. Although… if I look back to 2009 and stop myself from seeing the epic “Dropped Ball” I see numbers that I’d be happy with from a second baseman. So… if healthy… I have to say that he still has a legit shot.

Daniel Murphy, 26

Daniel T. Murphy graduated from Englewood High School (FL) in 2003...Hit .395 during his senior year...Earned All-Gateway honors as a senior, junior and sophomore in high school...Also was a four-year letter winner for the Englewood Swim Team...Named the 2006 Atlantic Sun Player of the Year and was named First Team All-Conference after finishing second in the A-Sun with a .398 batting average and 55 RBI while playing for Jacksonville University...During his sophomore season, he hit .410 during conference play to lead the Dolphins...Finished his freshman season (2004) with a .377 average to lead the team.

Murphy would have auditioned for the Mets in 2010 to become the new 2B if not for the Nationals minor leaguers playing dirty. What do we know about Murphy? He can hit the ball but doesn’t have 1B power. He CANNOT play LF. He can play first pretty well but is a little too impatient. He’s played some 2B now in the winter leagues and hasn’t butchered the position. I feel like he is the odds on favorite to win the nod this spring.

Brad Emaus, 25

Bradley Mark Emaus... Single... His father, Mark, played baseball at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University... Majored in media arts at Tulane University... A four-year letterman at East Coweta... Helped guide the Indians to a combined 92-25 record in four years, with four playoff appearances and a state runner-up finish as a junior... Named a Street & Smith All-American in 2004, was drafted in the 18th round by the Atlanta Braves... Named team MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner as a senior after hitting .509 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 40 stolen bases... As a junior, named Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Newman Times Herald Player of the Year and earned a spot on the AFLAC All-America team after hitting .490 with 14 homers and a 1.100 slugging percentage... Claimed a pair of gold medals with the AAU Junior Olympics and was named MVP of the CABA World Series... off the diamond, was a member of the National Honor Society.

Chances that Brad makes the team are VERY good. Brad has the Alderson approach to hitting (OBP) and was a Rule 5 pick and needs to stay with the MLB club to stay on the team. He’s a righty so even if Murphy wins the job, he’s likely to win the job as the back-up. Emaus has been described as no defensive whiz. He’s a smart hitter, a smart base runner, a smart fielder and a MLB ready player. Emaus will make the team unless Turner astounds or he is not any good.

Justin Turner, 26

Graduated from Mayfair High School...Played collegiately at Cal State Fullerton.

Justin Turner was good in the minors last year but was he good enough to beat the others. Turner has the toughest road to the team. He can be sent to AAA while Emaus cannot. He’s not a lefty while Murphy is. He’s not owed 6 Million dollars like Castillo. Turner has to flat out win the position this spring which I won’t put entirely past him. If he misses the starting job Emaus/Murphy probably have the lock on backing up the starter but that doesn’t 100% rule Justin Turner out. Chin-Lung Hu has to watch out, because though he doesn’t field it well, Turner DOES field SS and could be a different sort of back-up.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.