Meet the B-Mets

I'm not a professional scout in any way, but I got to watch the B-Mets up close and personal from behind their dugout and can still give my opinions. Jose Coronado provided my wife's favorite part of the game with the bubble on the hat of Jean Luc Blaquierre. However the biggest hits of the game belonged to Valdespin, Brahiam Maldonado and Salomon Manriquez. I will quickly say that Maldonado is far too home run happy in his approach, (The 5'11" OF has an upper-cut swing and is not the fastest man in the field) and Manriquez is a solid defender who looked good at the plate. I wasn't paying tons of attention to them. Who WAS I paying attention to? #22, Brandon Moore, SP: Moore's fastball topped out at 90 MPH and sat close to 88 for most of the game. His slider was his go-to pitch and accounted for all but one of his K's. He threw the slider between 76 and 85 MPH and would have it sneaking into or diving out of the zone. He was hit pretty well a few times but kept the hitters using the biggest part of the ball-park. In the later part of the game he had a BIG at-bat vs. Latimore where he managed to get him to strike out on a good slow change up. Moore had good control for MOST of the night but is VERY uncomfortable when he is behind and WILL walk people rather than give up on the breaking pitches. #7, Jordany Valdespin, SS: Valdespin had a two-out RBI single that was nearly more, if not for some good throws by Altoona. Jordany at the plate displayed great strength in his upper body but is not as calm and confident as I'd want a lead off hitter to be. His feet and legs have a lot of idle movement. In the field he looks smooth and confident but his arm is not Jose Reyes'. #5, Josh Satin, 3B: Josh Satin has a very good eye and an advanced approach at the plate. He has a big step in his swing but it doesn't seem to be a negative. On the bases he is not a guy I'd expect to run. He actually looked pretty fast but he just seemed tentative taking a lead from first. In the field he nearly made a fine bare-handed play from 3rd but got a slightly late jump on the ball against a faster runner.

#4, Reese Havens, 2B: Reese Havens swing is practically perfect. It's even and smooth and strong. He looked in control of each at-bat and seemed capable of always hitting the ball for line-drives. He had a nice play with a tough bouncing ball that split he and Dykstra and nearly made a spectacular diving stop earlier in the game.

#10, Ricky Brooks, RP: Brooks is not a household name by any means but he was pretty dominant yesterday. Coming in for the 8th he struck out three before finishing the game in the 9th with a 4th K. Brooks topped out at 94 MPH with a 77 MPH change and a 84 MPH slider. He looked "in the zone."

My wife and I remarked at the overall camaraderie of the team. They seemed to genuinely like each other and enjoy the game. After the B-Mets took an early 3-run lead my wife quipped, "I think this team is better than the real Mets." In some ways I suppose they were.

As a side note I got a ball from Brad Holt who seemed like a pitching coach as he watched the game from the railing.

Up This Week:

TBD

The Future of Met Hitting

I focus on the positives with the minor leagues. So... you can take this post as an indication that not all our young pitching is flourishing, but rest assured that Harvey, Familia, Goeddel, Peavey and Schwinden are all doing fine. I've simply focused on farm pitchers already and it's time to focus on some bats.

AAA, Buffalo Bisons:

Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada are all in Flushing so that leaves the Met prospect list in AAA a little under manned. There is still ONE familiar face and Toby Hyde would like us fans to stop demanding that the Mets promote him. Just because he blogs about the minors for SNY doesn't mean he has the authority to promote anyone.

Kirk Niewenhuis, OF - Kirk went through a bit of a dry-spell for the first part of may but is back to his hitting ways. Why is he still in AAA? Well... that has a lot to do with Angel Pagan not being long from returning to the MLB. He's really shown a pretty solid bat through his first 125 ABs and he's displaying a good amount of power with 14 doubles, 2 triples and 6 Hrs. If Kirk can play MLB CF, then he's an A+ prospect if he's a corner outfielder that power becomes more necessary and I'm not sold on him hitting more than 20 dingers a year... particularly in Citi-Field.

AA, Binghamton B-Mets:

Maybe I'll catch a game when my wife and I visit her family in the area. With their inconsistent play, I'm not sure how wild I am to do it though. The fact is, that with all the offensive stars in the Met system... Binghamton is the lightest equipped. Not their fault Reese Havens is an injury waiting to happen.

Joshua Satin, 2B/Util - Josh is going to move on up to AAA at some point... I'd wager soon. Or at least as soon as Havens can actually play. With AAA so heavily mined it makes sense. Now... I'm not sold on Satin being a major league starter. I don't think MANY people are. I do think he could be a major league utility guy. What's the issue? Well... we already have Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans and the list goes on. A big feather in Satin's favor is an advanced eye that means to me that he'll be a good PH candidate.

Jordany Valdespin, SS/2B - After a rough start to the year, the guy some peg to "replace" Jose Reyes (Next week: The Save Reyes Campaign Begins), Valdespin is rounding into form. He's got some power... 10 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Hrs and some speed... 10 SBs. What he doesn't have is command of the strike zone. He's walked 9 times and K'd 29. Now... that isn't awful but it's a long way from what we'd need. Should Reyes leave town, he's still the likely incumbent but I don't see Jordany as a long-term replacement unless he can get that ratio to 1:2.

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:

High A is one of the better teams the Mets have, though recently it seems the bullpen is struggling. The fact is the team has 4 or even 5 very good OFs and for that reason I believe a few will be Northward bound in the very near future. I am not going to list them all because I want to focus on players I see as true impact players right now.

Matt Den Dekker, CF - More than a few people are excited about Matt. He's got a great glove... so... no worries about needing to shift to a corner and he's showed a good amount of power (for a CF). 15 doubles, 7 triples and 2 HRs. His speed is pretty normal and I'd put him in the 15-20 SB range in the majors but I'll take the healthy mix he DOES provide any day. One thing he DOES do it hit... a lot. He's hitting .331 and that is pretty solid by anyone's measure. The issue is that common BB:K problem. 8 walks and 35 K's is a big reason why he has not made the jump to AA.

Juan Lagares, OF - Lagares beats out Pedro Zapata and Caesar Puello because of his RECENT hitting. On the double header of May 15th, Juan belted 3 HRs between the two games. He's seemed a little slower to develop than some other prospects. He caught up to the SAL last year and looked over-matched in the FSL. Now he's caught up to FSL so I think that next year he should be ready to try AA. He's got some power but will need to develop a bunch more to be a major league starter.

Wilmer Flores, SS - I couldn't resist. With all the great starts young players have had, Flores has been lost in the flow a bit. Chalk up part of that to stupid minor league reporters for Baseball Prospectus who thing they're being original when they re-hash the, Wilmer can't play SS story. No... he can't... but I am pretty sure 3B, LF, RF and 1B are still places he could shine. Has he hit for power? Not to the extent people want to see... no. HOWEVER, he's hitting for some power and he's picked up the power numbers more now that he's settled into the season. Take a cue from Douglas Adams and "Don't Panic!"

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:

Some of the players I'm particularly excited about have not proved me right as of yet so I'll focus on two guys who aren't disappointing.

Cory Vaughn, OF - Greg Vaughn's kid is... AWESOME. He may not be hitting for prolific power like he did in the NYP but he's doing almost everything you could want a prospect to do. Is he hitting? You bet! He's hitting .331 and slugging .478 (He's hit 2 of his three HRs recently so it might be a sign of things to come). How's his plate discipline? TOPS! He's got a 27:37 BB/K ratio and is a leader in OBP. How's his defense? Pretty good. He's played all three outfield positions. He projects to have the hitting chops to play anywhere anyway. If I had to find a flaw it would be the 4 CS in 10 attempts. It doesn't look like he's a prolific base stealer. Though... 6 SBs does point to the ability to nab at least a few.

Robbie Shields, SS - Can Shields stick at SS? I don't know. He's got more of a shot than Wilmer Flores. Shields is a hitting infielder and that isn't something to scoff at. He's got a few TRULY gaudy stats. His K/BB ratio? 21:21. That's sick! Most of his hitting has come in May and that should tell you that he's potentially a big star who just took a month to REALLY get going. My biggest worry is that Shields is also not destined to stick at SS and that hurts his value.

Brad Needs To Grow Eyes In Back Of Head

Brad Emaus is OFFICIALLY the starting second baseman for the Mets. It wasn't my ideal candidate... he's not capable of turning double plays so good... but it was probably the second most desirable option I had going into the season. However... Brad may have won the job, but the Mets aren't exactly going to give him a lot of rope to hang himself with.

Brad Emaus - Known for his good eye and larger than average frame (for a 2B) Emaus projects to be a fine hitter. Considering options... having Emaus and Thole at the back of your lineup is pretty good. Both players hit for contact and will force pitchers to work. Emaus and Thole HAVE to be better at driving in runners than say... Luis Castillo, who in the best of situations was not the guy you wanted with runners in scoring position.

Daniel Murphy - Sitting on the bench with a glove made of stone, Daniel Murphy represents a left handed hitting option. He is a better overall hitter than Emaus (more prone to K and less to BB) but he can't TRULY field the position. What happens if Emaus doesn't hit for a month and Murphy looks like a beast off the bench? Can Terry Collins resist throwing Murphy out there to start? Can he handle the position well enough for Met fans to forgive the inevitable extra outs he'd be giving teams?

Justin Turner - Turner is the most likely person to be promoted, if Emaus failed. He can play the position pretty well and isn't a useless hitter. He will not be the PHENOMENAL hitter we saw in AAA last year, but he could probably hold his own in the bottom third of an NL lineup. While Turner is the most likely name you'll hear bandied about... he's the least exciting. There is a low ceiling on Turner and that isn't the end of the world but it also isn't something to write home about.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada is going to be playing SS in AAA preparing to compete to play SS in 2012. But... let us say that Reyes is not going to leave town. Then we no longer need Tejada at short. If he isn't needed there, then the Mets know his defense is up to snuff. His hitting... well... I'm less pessimistic than I was pre-spring. He hits well... situation-ally, meaning he can advance the runner and drive in runners in scoring position. He also can slap a single. What I NEED to see Ruben do, is swipe a bag. When he can do that, he's a major league starter and I put him pretty high in the mix.

Jordany Valdespin - For those of you who refuse to learn this name... be ready for next spring when he's the lead candidate to replace Reyes. Faster and more powerful than Tejada with a solid glove, he seems like he'd be ready RIGHT NOW to compete for that job that Emaus just won. There is a problem though... Valdespin can't take walks. Emaus is the OBP guy and that is what Alderson and his cronies are looking for. Jordany is probably going to be bumped down to AA by the sheer number of middle infielders the Mets have but he could easily make that jump to the majors if he gets hot.

Reese Havens - Wait a second, Reese Havens is supposed to be the Met's top 2B prospect... why is he down here? Well... while Havens spent last season mainly in recovery... Others stepped up their games. Reese is still a hitting machine who might be an ALL-STAR 2B in time, but the Mets want to wait and see. He is going to need to crush AA/AAA pitching for over a month to force this new regime to bring him up as early as May or June. I would imagine that Reese will get a chance to cut his teeth in 2011 but won't get a true shot at the lineup until 2012.

Joshua Satin - The man with the glorious eyebrows that you see to the left is Joshua Satin. A man without a position, who spends a lot of time DH-ing. He has played 2B, 1B and OF in recent years. He's also steadily risen through the ranks and displayed a good ability to hit. HOWEVER... I think I'm not alone in seeing Mr. Satin as another Daniel Murphy. A man who can be on the bench and play multiple roles but not someone who is going to be a major league starter anywhere.

Wally Backman/Tim Teufel - If all else fails... The Mets have a few second basemen in the minors that I haven't yet mentioned. These are veterans with proven success in Met uniform. They might be a little old, slow and surly, but I think that it's good to put them on the radar too... just in case.

Rat Races

We're back to look again at the various races this spring. While I've been forced to evacuate my home to avoid an impending flood and could dwell on the negative of life. I have baseball to distract and entertain me.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely In:

Willie Harris - I listed Hairston and Paulino as locks last week and held off of Harris. I can't keep doing that. Collins has said that Harris will make the team, he's a defensive OF and he's a lefty. The trifecta.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Collins hasn't yet gotten to see Murphy complete a DP. That has left Murphy a tick behind Castillo in the 2B race but Murphy OWNS a spot on the bench if he doesn't win the job as a starting player.

Chin-Lung Hu - Hu is playing well enough to appease me. I still want to see Turner play SS because he's definitely the better hitter. I've just resigned myself to the Japanese Ray Ordonezbacking up the middle infield.

Nick Evans - Evans has certainly made the case for himself to make the team. He's cooling off little but he's still turned out an overall good spring and might be in the discussion for the bench or perhaps as Beltran's temp. (Hairston has the edge on that though)

Lucas Duda - Boy do the Mets REALLY want to keep him with the big club. He's hit REALLY well and is definitely in the discussion for being Beltran's temporary replacement. Duda will be with the Mets in 2011 but might not be right out of camp.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Getting the moniker of E-Miss is not helping him. Castillo playing a little better isn't either. Mets might need to be willing to let this Rule 5 pick go back to Canada.

The Rotation:

Stock Up:

Dillon Gee - Gee had a nearly perfect outing yesterday. That ups his stock... but he's still looking at being the #6 option.

Stock Down:

Chris Capuano - Chris has a rougher looking outing this week. I think it wasn't bad enough to make him fall from the lead for the 5th starter but with Capuano having a bad outing and Gee having a good one, Chris is on notice.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is the new LOOGY. Tankerseley has failed to impress and O'Connor and Misch aren't as good. I think that battle is over.

Stock Up:

Manny Accosta - I think he's back to one of the more likely names.

Jason Isringhausen - I think just about everyone wants to see Izzy succeed and return to the Mets in 2011.

Stock Down:

Ryota Iggarashi - He's looking like his power pitching is improved but that he's still a bit rough around the edges. He'd be well served by going to AAA and honing.

Taylor Buchholz - I like him but he's just got control issues that worry me. I don't know if I'm fully confident in him. I also don't know if I'd take Taylor over Pedro Beato, Manny Accosta or Jason Isringhausen.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Luis Castillo - Luis Castillo is heating up and is the leading candidate for the starting job... BECAUSE HE'S EARNING IT. I still don't see him winning it because I don't think he gives the Mets the best chance of winning. It just seems to me, that if he CAN hit around .300 and get on base often, he'll be fine even with his occasional sloppy fielding.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been hitting the ball well this spring. He just hasn't gotten the chance to prove he can field. I think that Collins WANTS Murphy to win the job. I think Alderson is willing to drop Castillo if he agrees that Murphy deserves it. We just need to hope that Murphy shows a good glove when that opportunity finally comes.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is going to the minors. Not even a question. He's just had a good enough spring that he has entered the discussion for the future. I wonder if the Mets would see Valdespin as a Reyes replacement... OR... maybe Havens has competition for the 2012 starting 2B job.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Brad has fallen off the charts in terms of expectations. I think he might even be looking up at Justin Turner in the 2B race.

Justin Turner - Turner has proven he can field 2B but he hasn't hit the ball enough to impress and to win the job he needed to hit A LOT.

Phlavio's 25

Lineup: 8

1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)

2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)

3. David Wright, 3B (R)

4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S) [Ike Davis, 1B (L)]

5. Ike Davis, 1B (L) [Jason Bay, LF (R)]

6. Jason Bay, LF (R) [Lucas Duda, RF (L)]

7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)

8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Bench: 5

1. Ronny Paulino, C (R)

2. Scott Hairston, OF (R)

3. Willie Harris, OF (L)

4. Chin-Lung Hu, IF (R)

5. Nick Evans, 1B/OF (R)

Rotation: 5

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

4. Chris Young, SP (R)

5. Chris Capuano, SP (L)

Bullpen: 7

1. CL - Francisco Rodriguez, RP (R)

2. SU - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

3. MR - Manny Accosta, RP (R)

4. MR - Jason Isringhausen, RP (R)

5. MR - Pedro Beato, RP (R)

6. LOOGY - Tim Byrdak, RP (L)

7. LRP - Pat Misch, RP (L)

Prospectin'

I just wanted to take a moment to talk about some of the prospects and pseudo-prospects at camp that might make an impact on the team in the future. I'll be repeating the post on a semi-weekly basis.

Nick Evans - Evans had a hit and has come across as a big positive for the Mets thus far. The problem being that he's out of options and the Mets already have Hu, Emaus, Hairston, Paulino and Harris penciled into the bench. Evans might make himself a trade candidate by playing well but I have a hard time seeing the Mets losing Emaus to keep him.

Fernando Martinez - Martinez had a good day at the plate but was a DH. As long as he's playing I won't complain. Martinez stands a good chance of being a mid-season call-up should Bay or Beltran need to miss an extended time.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy looked pretty good and must have made Terry Collins look up when he followed up a Castillo gaffe inning with a ground-rule double. How about giving Murph or Emaus a start tomorrow?

Mike Nickeas - Nickeas has impressed me with his glove. He's got a strong arm and he also gunned out a runner. Nickeas will probably sit in AAA in case Thole or Paulino are hurt.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada has a great glove and knows how to use it both from SS and 2B but his bat is not presumably ready. Not so fast... Terry Collins thinks Ruben is back into the starting 2B discussion. It's a long-shot but the hitting looks much improved. For me to get excited I need him to prove he can steal 20+ bases.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is a lefty bat with reasonably good contact and a little speed and power. He was an un-impressive BPAB (Bench Player At Best) until the AFL came along and he turned some heads. He K's like he's a power hitter and that can't continue if he's going to actually be good enough to become a MLB starter.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk is a player that coaches love... which is either something that Kirk should worry about in the showers or... he's simply a guy who follows instruction. Either way Kirk needs to be on your radar because he's very much in the mix for the Post-Beltran Mets.

Lucas Duda - Duda is a large man who hits the ball. He's like Chris Carter minus the complete insanity factor (Yes... I miss Animal too) but Duda will probably NOT make the Mets. The issue is that Duda plays LF and 1B and the Mets wanted bench OFs who could do more. Enter Hairston and Harris and exit Duda. 2012 he will at least be our big lefty on the bench.

Justin Turner - Turner is not a GREAT fielder but he is the kind of bench player that you pay for. He hits and can play all of the IF positions.

Brad Emaus - Emaus is a high OBP IF with a powerful build that doesn't lend itself to graceful fielding. Unlike Murphy he's played 2B more and can handle the position adequately. He should make the team if only because the Mets have to give him back if he doesn't.

Wilfredo Tovar - Wilmer Flores gets more buzz as he's heads and tails the better hitter, but Tovar might be the best overall SS in the system. Great fielding and a pretty good bat. The issue is that Tovar will likely be at the same level as Flores so... unless or until Wilmer moves to another position he's not going to get enough playing time.

Pedro Beato - Beato is the other rule 5 pick and I've seen him pitch. He's got a great arm. The question is, will he be worth the roster spot? I'm saying yes right now.

Jenrry Mejia - 99.999% chance Mejia goes to AAA 99.999% chance Mejia is on the MLB club by this fall.

Matt Harvey - Mets top pick is not SUPER far from the majors but, while I'd like to see him pitch to MLB players I predict he starts in Port St. Lucie.

It's ACTUAL Baseball

Break out your graphing calculator... baseball is back! That means I can get down to the only kind of math that I can stand doing... Saber-metrics and Box-Score Analysis. Good news is that the Mets new pitcher might be able to check my work to make sure I carried the 2.

Notes:

O' Jenrry - Jenrry Mejia looked very sharp in his spring debut but I do have a complaint. He did seem to get ahead of hitters but he seemed to consistently let them back into the at-bat by letting the count go to full. I think that the Mets will certainly be thinking about him in the rotation sooner than later.

Beato My Own Drum - Pedro Beato got into trouble but also displayed his electric stuff. I think that he's certainly someone to watch.

Attention F-Mart Shoppers - I watched Fernando look like an eternal prospect and also... turn on a pitch and take it yard. Fernando by no means needs to WIN a job this spring but he does need to prove he can be healthy. He's likely to be called up if there are injuries but the key to his season is health.


Valdespin Cycle - Jordany was the player who impressed me the most. (Besides Castillo and Hu who I'm still trying my best to hate.) Valdespin looked sharp playing 2B and at the plate he really looked like he was far more developed then I thought he'd be. I would say he looked like he was ready to be in the running for the 2B competition.

The Young and the Tall - Chris Young is tall... we get it. I'm getting a little bored with people pointing it out. Can we trade for John Rauch so people stop mentioning it? Anyway... yeah... he looked like he might be good enough to sit closer to the front of the rotation... but it's early.

Ollie Still Ollie - Perez looked bad, but nobody was surprised. I'd say he get's one more chance to start and then MAYBE two chances to relieve.

What Might Ultim-Utley Kill the Phils - Utley's knee is hurt and he's looking at a cortisone injection. This isn't like Wainwright's injury but he will put some questions in regards to an offense that some writers mistakenly deem a given. Let's look at facts: Victorino is good but not GREAT, Rollins looked like a shell of his former self last year, Utley has health concerns, Howard has some health issues (don't buy that he's declining), Ibanez is old enough to be Brown's father, Brown is ENTIRELY un-proven, Polanco is a giant health risk, Ruiz is only pretty good and the bullpen isn't the best I've seen. The Phillies are hardly as much of a lock to hit as you might think.

This Week:

Prospect Review: Let's go over some of the names in Mets camp to keep your eyes on.

Phantasy Island: Are There Fantasy Bargains on the New York Mets?

Beast of the East: Let's look at the 5 NL East teams... shall we?

The Amazing Race: Updating Everyone on the 2B, Bench, Rotational and Bullpen races