The Future of Met Hitting

I focus on the positives with the minor leagues. So... you can take this post as an indication that not all our young pitching is flourishing, but rest assured that Harvey, Familia, Goeddel, Peavey and Schwinden are all doing fine. I've simply focused on farm pitchers already and it's time to focus on some bats.

AAA, Buffalo Bisons:

Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada are all in Flushing so that leaves the Met prospect list in AAA a little under manned. There is still ONE familiar face and Toby Hyde would like us fans to stop demanding that the Mets promote him. Just because he blogs about the minors for SNY doesn't mean he has the authority to promote anyone.

Kirk Niewenhuis, OF - Kirk went through a bit of a dry-spell for the first part of may but is back to his hitting ways. Why is he still in AAA? Well... that has a lot to do with Angel Pagan not being long from returning to the MLB. He's really shown a pretty solid bat through his first 125 ABs and he's displaying a good amount of power with 14 doubles, 2 triples and 6 Hrs. If Kirk can play MLB CF, then he's an A+ prospect if he's a corner outfielder that power becomes more necessary and I'm not sold on him hitting more than 20 dingers a year... particularly in Citi-Field.

AA, Binghamton B-Mets:

Maybe I'll catch a game when my wife and I visit her family in the area. With their inconsistent play, I'm not sure how wild I am to do it though. The fact is, that with all the offensive stars in the Met system... Binghamton is the lightest equipped. Not their fault Reese Havens is an injury waiting to happen.

Joshua Satin, 2B/Util - Josh is going to move on up to AAA at some point... I'd wager soon. Or at least as soon as Havens can actually play. With AAA so heavily mined it makes sense. Now... I'm not sold on Satin being a major league starter. I don't think MANY people are. I do think he could be a major league utility guy. What's the issue? Well... we already have Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans and the list goes on. A big feather in Satin's favor is an advanced eye that means to me that he'll be a good PH candidate.

Jordany Valdespin, SS/2B - After a rough start to the year, the guy some peg to "replace" Jose Reyes (Next week: The Save Reyes Campaign Begins), Valdespin is rounding into form. He's got some power... 10 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Hrs and some speed... 10 SBs. What he doesn't have is command of the strike zone. He's walked 9 times and K'd 29. Now... that isn't awful but it's a long way from what we'd need. Should Reyes leave town, he's still the likely incumbent but I don't see Jordany as a long-term replacement unless he can get that ratio to 1:2.

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:

High A is one of the better teams the Mets have, though recently it seems the bullpen is struggling. The fact is the team has 4 or even 5 very good OFs and for that reason I believe a few will be Northward bound in the very near future. I am not going to list them all because I want to focus on players I see as true impact players right now.

Matt Den Dekker, CF - More than a few people are excited about Matt. He's got a great glove... so... no worries about needing to shift to a corner and he's showed a good amount of power (for a CF). 15 doubles, 7 triples and 2 HRs. His speed is pretty normal and I'd put him in the 15-20 SB range in the majors but I'll take the healthy mix he DOES provide any day. One thing he DOES do it hit... a lot. He's hitting .331 and that is pretty solid by anyone's measure. The issue is that common BB:K problem. 8 walks and 35 K's is a big reason why he has not made the jump to AA.

Juan Lagares, OF - Lagares beats out Pedro Zapata and Caesar Puello because of his RECENT hitting. On the double header of May 15th, Juan belted 3 HRs between the two games. He's seemed a little slower to develop than some other prospects. He caught up to the SAL last year and looked over-matched in the FSL. Now he's caught up to FSL so I think that next year he should be ready to try AA. He's got some power but will need to develop a bunch more to be a major league starter.

Wilmer Flores, SS - I couldn't resist. With all the great starts young players have had, Flores has been lost in the flow a bit. Chalk up part of that to stupid minor league reporters for Baseball Prospectus who thing they're being original when they re-hash the, Wilmer can't play SS story. No... he can't... but I am pretty sure 3B, LF, RF and 1B are still places he could shine. Has he hit for power? Not to the extent people want to see... no. HOWEVER, he's hitting for some power and he's picked up the power numbers more now that he's settled into the season. Take a cue from Douglas Adams and "Don't Panic!"

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:

Some of the players I'm particularly excited about have not proved me right as of yet so I'll focus on two guys who aren't disappointing.

Cory Vaughn, OF - Greg Vaughn's kid is... AWESOME. He may not be hitting for prolific power like he did in the NYP but he's doing almost everything you could want a prospect to do. Is he hitting? You bet! He's hitting .331 and slugging .478 (He's hit 2 of his three HRs recently so it might be a sign of things to come). How's his plate discipline? TOPS! He's got a 27:37 BB/K ratio and is a leader in OBP. How's his defense? Pretty good. He's played all three outfield positions. He projects to have the hitting chops to play anywhere anyway. If I had to find a flaw it would be the 4 CS in 10 attempts. It doesn't look like he's a prolific base stealer. Though... 6 SBs does point to the ability to nab at least a few.

Robbie Shields, SS - Can Shields stick at SS? I don't know. He's got more of a shot than Wilmer Flores. Shields is a hitting infielder and that isn't something to scoff at. He's got a few TRULY gaudy stats. His K/BB ratio? 21:21. That's sick! Most of his hitting has come in May and that should tell you that he's potentially a big star who just took a month to REALLY get going. My biggest worry is that Shields is also not destined to stick at SS and that hurts his value.

And Greg Vaughn's Son

The Mets minors are still going a long in a mostly positive way. The pitchers... for the most part have all hit the first "Bump in the road" of the season but at the same time, the hitters are heating up. There are lots of things to be happy about. One of them, is related to Mr. Vaughn.

AAA:

Full Name: Ruben Dario Tejada

Born: 10/27/1989

Birthplace: Veraguas, Panama

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Before the season I referred to Tejada as a bench middle infielder in the same mold as a Chin-Lung Hu. He had good defense and that was about it. Thus far, in 2011 he's got an OPS of .800 and has 14 RBIs. Ruben Tejada has gone from looking like he couldn't hit to looking like he's one of the better hitting SS's. He's obviously hitting for some power with an .800 OPS, but how much? 3 Doubles, 2 Triples and 2 Homers in 22 games. On the down-side, he's still not running enough. 2 SBs and 1 CS make me really hesitant to see him in a lead-off role. Right now he's looking like a very nice #7/#8 hitter option at the major-league level.

Full Name: Kirk Robert Nieuwenhuis

Born: 08/07/1987

Birthplace: Santa Monica, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Captain Kirk is looking like a star. An OPS of 1.021 makes that pretty obvious. However all of his hitting is not turning into production. He trails Ruben Tejada by 8 RBIs. It's just a little screwy and has more to do with where they are hitting in the order. Kirk may not be capable of holding down a good enough CF to last in Citi-Field but he's hitting like a +++CF so... he's hitting well enough to play right field if he's asked to. If Pagan were going to be out for a month or longer I'd give Kirk a shot at coming up and getting a look as an everyday player. Yesterday I saw someone comment that He should come up and be on the bench. I wanted to smack that fan. Kirk could be a starting OF for the Mets in 2012 and they don't want to halt his progress by making him a bench player.

Full Name: Jesus Fernando Martinez

Born: 10/10/1988

Birthplace: Rio San Juan, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Fernando has already taken a 2 week break this season. By which you should know I mean he's been injured. He's responded to the critics by returning with a vengence. He's got 3 extra base hits in his 6 games back and his OPS is sitting at .935. However, don't get excited unless he stays healthy for all of May and continues to hit. Then you can start to think about whether he or Kirk will replace Carlos in right.

Full Name: Jenrry Manuel Mejia

Born: 10/11/1989

Birthplace: Tabara Arriba, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Jenrry has finally hit a bump in the road. After looking flawless in his first two starts he looked okay on the 19th and bad on the 24th. He's still really limiting hits and looking pretty sharp in general but it is evident that he belongs in AAA for the time being. Mejia is a pretty solid thought for a late-season call-up particularly if the Mets fall from contention.

AA:

Full Name: Joshua Satin

Born: 12/23/1984

Birthplace: Hidden Hills, CA

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Joshua Satin has emerged as the biggest threat in the Binghamton lineup. Once Den Dekker and others join him, that will likely shift, but for now... he's the king of Binghamton. He's really doing just about everything we could want him to. Hitting often and for power. He's also a touch old. He's 26 and only in AA. He could be in AAA easily but even if he were... is he better than Justin Turner? I don't think he is.

Full Name: Jordany V Valdespin

Born: 12/23/1987

Birthplace: San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: R

Jordany had a BAD start to the year but things are improving. He's now hitting .237 which is 50 points of improvement from where he was not so long ago. He's also shown speed and some power. The drawback with Jordany will always be his discipline. He's not good at taking a walk and he shows a David Wright-like ability to strike out. It's not good to see but it's not impossible to correct. He's on a short list of people who would potentially replace Jose Reyes in 2012 but I hope it doesn't come to that. Valdespin would make a GREAT bench player as he has good defense and a reasonably good bat.

Full Name: Mark E. Cohoon

Born: 09/15/1987

Birthplace: Burleson, TX

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Holt and Carson suffered bad starts and Cohoon too had a bump in the road. Mark's bump was REALLY minor. He has looked like the most polished and ready pitcher in the farm and he's the most likely guy to be called up next. He's blocked by Dillon Gee who is providing depth at the major-league level right now. If the Mets shift Capuano into the bullpen (as I think they should) then Cohoon will be next in line to get a call. Is AAA necessary for him to stop at on the way? I don't think it really is.

A+:

Full Name: Matthew G Den Dekker

Born: 08/10/1987

Birthplace: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Den Dekker was pegged by some as the best defensive OF in the Met's system. I just wanted to illustrate something about his hitting. Matt owns a 1.024 OPS and a 1.380 OPS over the past 10 games. 11 Doubles, 3 Triples and 1 Homer, almost half of his hits have gone for extra bases. The only thing holding Matt in A+ ball is likely the organization trying to demonstrate patience and diligence. He's ready to test the tougher pitching of AA and I hope he can continue his great hitting.

Full Name: Wilmer Alejandro Flores

Born: 08/06/1991

Birthplace: Valencia, Venezuela

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

So... Baseball America is ready to write Wilmer off. His approach is no good, he's terrible at defense and he has no power. If you can definitively say that after 1 month of baseball, I think you should thank Ms. Cleo for your information. Wilmer is hitting... for average. He's starting to pick up the pace for power, but if you look at his history it follows his progression. When he landed in A+ ball last year he hit the ball consistently and for no power for a little over two weeks before he settled in and started looking to drive the ball. Is his defense bad? You bet. Look for Marte to move to Binghamton and Wilmer to possibly shift to third.

Full Name: Jefry Leonal Marte

Born: 06/21/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 187

Bats: R

Throws: R

Marte is known for starting slow and then playing okay baseball to reclaim some of his potential. This season he started like a rocket. He's hit the ball with authority, 4 HRs and he's shown some discipline with 10 BBs. Marte has sorta re-established his value in the farm after falling out of many peoples lists. Marte is leading the team with Den Dekker and may soon be LEAVING the team with Den Dekker. I would expect to see Jefry and Matt move to AA and perhaps Flores shifting to 3rd.

Full Name: Cesar David Puello

Born: 04/01/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Puello rocketed into our combined consciousness in 2010 after having a big second half in Savannah. He's started 2011 slowly, but the hope is that he's starting to make corrections. He's bringing his batting average steadily upwards and he's hitting some doubles, but that STAR quality is missing. My biggest worry is his 2/18 BB/K ratio. He needs to fix that if he's going to stay in the Met's top 10 prospects.

Full Name: Matthew Harvey

Born: 03/27/1989

Birthplace: Groton, CT

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Another pitcher who had a rough go this week. Through 4 starts... FLAWLESS. The last one... shows he's a work in progress. Still, 5 starts in his minor league career and he's 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA and a K/9 over 9.00. Harvey has a bright future and still has a ticket to Binghamton at some point this season.

Full Name: Jeurys Familia

Born: 10/10/1989

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Familia has the benefit of not having pitched in the last couple days. Will he avoid the plague of bad outings? Well... I think he's got a good shot. The secret to Familia's success has been not allowing anyone on base. 9 hits and 7 walks in 25.2 innings makes it REALLY hard to lose ball games. Familia might actually be the pitching prospect with the highest ceiling in the Met system.

A:

Full Name: Aderlin Rodriguez

Born: 11/18/1991

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Do I really have a player hitting below .200 on this list? Yes, yes I do. First of all he's hitting .279 in his last 10 games and second of all, do you know how hard it is to have a .192 average and an SLG over .400? Aderlin's power is REAL. He's also shown he can probably stick as a 3B, though he's not a whiz in the field. He's hit all four of his homers in the past 5 games so it will be interesting to see how long his power streak will live. I am really okay with Rodriguez moving up the system pretty slowly so look for him to stick around in Savannah for a while.

Full Name: Cory Vaughn

Born: 05/01/1989

Birthplace: Carmichael, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Greg Vaughn's kid is not exactly a clone of his father. He's taller, he's faster and he's capable of playing all OF positions. Vaughn has been the only really consistent bat in Savannah and he's putting together a strong overall game. He's got some power and some speed, he's not too prone to strike out and he's been solid in the field. We are all waiting to see if he can start to belt with consistent power like he did in Brooklyn. If he can do that he'll rocket up the scouting reports.

Prospectin' 2:

Taking another look at the "minor-league" players who are making a splash in camp. I'm focusing on the positives because with a possible flood coming towards my house for the second year in a row. I think looking at the good is warranted.

Matt Den Dekker - Age 23 - Position CF - A+/AA: Den Dekker has not had enough chances this spring to do anything meaningful. He is 2 for 3 in his EXTREMELY limited at-bats, but 3 ABs doesn't prove anything. Matt will likely wind up in Port St. Lucie or Binghamton (wherever they need a CF).

Fernando Martinez - Age 22 - Position RF - AAA/MLB: Martinez has been a prospect for a LONG time. HOWEVER, he's 22 and in the most advanced level of the minors and if you've watched this spring... he's hitting. Through 17 at-bats he's hitting an absurd .412 and slugging a robust .706. What ACTUALLY excites me is this little ratio 3 : 4. (3 Walks to 4 K's) THAT is a good sign and a sign that makes me believe that Fernando WILL replace Beltran in the OF either after this season, a trade or an injury. Health is still a major and legitimate concern.

Ruben Tejada - Age 21 - Position SS/2B - AAA/MLB: Tejada has hit well this spring. Evidenced by his 3 RBIs, he's also been clutch. His defense is great and if he can hit over .275 he's a major league quality middle infielder but unless he learns to swipe a bag... I refuse to be excited. Ruben will be in AAA unless he beats Murphy, Emaus, Castillo and Turner for the starting 2B job.

Nick Evans - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: Evans has hit his way from irrelevant to problematic. It's a good thing AND a bad thing. Evans is now looking like he deserves a roll on the major league club. On top of this he has no options left. The issue is going to be the Mets acquisition of Scott Hairston and Willie Harris. Evans just doesn't fit onto a 5 man bench. Collins could run with a 6 man bench, but there are few enough bullpen spots.

Lucas Duda - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: If Duda or Evans could play CF the Mets would not have signed Harris and Hairston. Duda deserves a spot on the bench as the lefty power bat but he has options and will go to AAA.

Daniel Murphy - Age 25 (for now) - Position 1B/3B/2B: This spring Murphy has shown he can still hit and that he's a capable 3B. He has played fine at 2B but has yet to be challenged. When he finally gets that double-play opportunity... I hope it goes well.

Pat Misch - Age 29 - Position SP/RP - AAA/MLB: Misch is better than he's shown but not excessively so. He gives up too many hits but doesn't walk many. He's also miles ahead of Dillon Gee right now.

Keith Law's 26th Best Farm... Can hit!

Sorry Keith, but next time don't insult my boys. (Keith Law was not injured in the writing of this Blog post.)

Now my Law aimed vengeance is not severe like that aimed at Steve Philips whenever he opens his mouth, but it's palpable. Law ranked the Mets 26th out of 30 teams in terms of the strength of our minor-leagues. I don't claim to have the Tampa Bay system or the Kansas City system, but... are we REALLY that bad?

* - Career Minor Leaguer
** - Journey Man
*** - MLB Bench Player
**** - MLB Starter
***** - MLB Star

None of these rankings are set in stone but given the players age, skill, and level I think that all of their rankings fit their current projections.

AAA:
C: Mike Nickeas, **
1B: Nick Evans, ***
2B: Justin Turner, ***
SS: Ruben Tejada, ****
3B: Zach Lutz, ***
LF: Lucas Duda, ***
CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, ****
RF: Fernando Martinez, ****
DH/Util: Josh Satin, ***

Three players project as possible MLB starters and I still believe Fernando Martinez could be a star. The key here is that: Evans, Turner, Lutz, and Duda are all ready to be in the majors and they will be (in all likelihood) in AAA to start the year. This means that our AAA club has quite the murderers row. At least... for AAA.

AA:
C: Salomon Manriquez, **
1B: Michael Fisher, ***
2B: Reese Havens, *****
SS: Jordany Valdespin, ****
3B: Eric Campbell, ***
LF: Sean Ratliff, ***
CF: Matt Den Dekker, *****
RF: Carlos Guzman, **
DH/Util: Brahiam Maldonado, **

A number of players to watch starting in AA. First Reese Havens who needs only to play as good as he has and stay healthy to be on the Mets in 2012. Next is Matt Den Dekker who's defense and hitting have him steadily moving up through the system. Then there's Valdespin who flashed brilliance this fall. add in a little Campbell and Ratliff and the B-Mets should hit.

A+:
C: Kai Gronauer, ****
1B: Stefan Welch, **
2B: Wilfredo Tovar, ****
SS: Wilmer Flores, *****
3B: Jeffry Marte, ****
LF: Rafael Fernandez, ***
CF: Pedro Zapata, ***
RF: Caesar Puello, *****
DH/Util: Robbie Shields, ****

Port St. Lucie will start with the uber-prospect Wilmer Flores but he won't stick. Expect Tovar to shift across to SS when he does. Caesar Puello is a potential 5-tool player, Shields can hit, Marte has power and Gronauer is VERY VERY German. I think that half this team will be in Binghamton soon.

A:
C Francisco Pena ****
1B Jeff Flagg **
2B Ray Van Gurp **
SS Rylan Sandoval ****
3B Aderlin Rodriguez *****
LF Javier Rodriguez *****
CF Darrell Cecilliani *****
RF Cory Vaughn *****
DH/Util Juan Lagares ***

The most intriguing bunch is here in Savannah. Now... I spoke to a much more known blogger who says that Vaughn will be in a higher league but I want to maximize playing time and I think Savannah is the tougher league to hit in anyway. Vaughn, Rodriguez and Rodriguez will be the best 3, 4, 5 combo this league has. Add Cecilliani leading off and hopefully a healthy Francisco Pena and the Mets might have an ultra dominant team on their hands.

In conclusion, before one goes around saying that the Mets have almost ZERO talent in the farm... remember that a couple years ago Fernando Martinez WAS our farm.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.