The Future of Met Hitting

I focus on the positives with the minor leagues. So... you can take this post as an indication that not all our young pitching is flourishing, but rest assured that Harvey, Familia, Goeddel, Peavey and Schwinden are all doing fine. I've simply focused on farm pitchers already and it's time to focus on some bats.

AAA, Buffalo Bisons:

Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada are all in Flushing so that leaves the Met prospect list in AAA a little under manned. There is still ONE familiar face and Toby Hyde would like us fans to stop demanding that the Mets promote him. Just because he blogs about the minors for SNY doesn't mean he has the authority to promote anyone.

Kirk Niewenhuis, OF - Kirk went through a bit of a dry-spell for the first part of may but is back to his hitting ways. Why is he still in AAA? Well... that has a lot to do with Angel Pagan not being long from returning to the MLB. He's really shown a pretty solid bat through his first 125 ABs and he's displaying a good amount of power with 14 doubles, 2 triples and 6 Hrs. If Kirk can play MLB CF, then he's an A+ prospect if he's a corner outfielder that power becomes more necessary and I'm not sold on him hitting more than 20 dingers a year... particularly in Citi-Field.

AA, Binghamton B-Mets:

Maybe I'll catch a game when my wife and I visit her family in the area. With their inconsistent play, I'm not sure how wild I am to do it though. The fact is, that with all the offensive stars in the Met system... Binghamton is the lightest equipped. Not their fault Reese Havens is an injury waiting to happen.

Joshua Satin, 2B/Util - Josh is going to move on up to AAA at some point... I'd wager soon. Or at least as soon as Havens can actually play. With AAA so heavily mined it makes sense. Now... I'm not sold on Satin being a major league starter. I don't think MANY people are. I do think he could be a major league utility guy. What's the issue? Well... we already have Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans and the list goes on. A big feather in Satin's favor is an advanced eye that means to me that he'll be a good PH candidate.

Jordany Valdespin, SS/2B - After a rough start to the year, the guy some peg to "replace" Jose Reyes (Next week: The Save Reyes Campaign Begins), Valdespin is rounding into form. He's got some power... 10 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Hrs and some speed... 10 SBs. What he doesn't have is command of the strike zone. He's walked 9 times and K'd 29. Now... that isn't awful but it's a long way from what we'd need. Should Reyes leave town, he's still the likely incumbent but I don't see Jordany as a long-term replacement unless he can get that ratio to 1:2.

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:

High A is one of the better teams the Mets have, though recently it seems the bullpen is struggling. The fact is the team has 4 or even 5 very good OFs and for that reason I believe a few will be Northward bound in the very near future. I am not going to list them all because I want to focus on players I see as true impact players right now.

Matt Den Dekker, CF - More than a few people are excited about Matt. He's got a great glove... so... no worries about needing to shift to a corner and he's showed a good amount of power (for a CF). 15 doubles, 7 triples and 2 HRs. His speed is pretty normal and I'd put him in the 15-20 SB range in the majors but I'll take the healthy mix he DOES provide any day. One thing he DOES do it hit... a lot. He's hitting .331 and that is pretty solid by anyone's measure. The issue is that common BB:K problem. 8 walks and 35 K's is a big reason why he has not made the jump to AA.

Juan Lagares, OF - Lagares beats out Pedro Zapata and Caesar Puello because of his RECENT hitting. On the double header of May 15th, Juan belted 3 HRs between the two games. He's seemed a little slower to develop than some other prospects. He caught up to the SAL last year and looked over-matched in the FSL. Now he's caught up to FSL so I think that next year he should be ready to try AA. He's got some power but will need to develop a bunch more to be a major league starter.

Wilmer Flores, SS - I couldn't resist. With all the great starts young players have had, Flores has been lost in the flow a bit. Chalk up part of that to stupid minor league reporters for Baseball Prospectus who thing they're being original when they re-hash the, Wilmer can't play SS story. No... he can't... but I am pretty sure 3B, LF, RF and 1B are still places he could shine. Has he hit for power? Not to the extent people want to see... no. HOWEVER, he's hitting for some power and he's picked up the power numbers more now that he's settled into the season. Take a cue from Douglas Adams and "Don't Panic!"

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:

Some of the players I'm particularly excited about have not proved me right as of yet so I'll focus on two guys who aren't disappointing.

Cory Vaughn, OF - Greg Vaughn's kid is... AWESOME. He may not be hitting for prolific power like he did in the NYP but he's doing almost everything you could want a prospect to do. Is he hitting? You bet! He's hitting .331 and slugging .478 (He's hit 2 of his three HRs recently so it might be a sign of things to come). How's his plate discipline? TOPS! He's got a 27:37 BB/K ratio and is a leader in OBP. How's his defense? Pretty good. He's played all three outfield positions. He projects to have the hitting chops to play anywhere anyway. If I had to find a flaw it would be the 4 CS in 10 attempts. It doesn't look like he's a prolific base stealer. Though... 6 SBs does point to the ability to nab at least a few.

Robbie Shields, SS - Can Shields stick at SS? I don't know. He's got more of a shot than Wilmer Flores. Shields is a hitting infielder and that isn't something to scoff at. He's got a few TRULY gaudy stats. His K/BB ratio? 21:21. That's sick! Most of his hitting has come in May and that should tell you that he's potentially a big star who just took a month to REALLY get going. My biggest worry is that Shields is also not destined to stick at SS and that hurts his value.

PLATOON

Before the season started a certain blogger (ME) might have mentioned that he wanted a certain player (MURPHY) to platoon with a righty but basically get 85% of the playing time. This blogger said this because despite Brad Emaus' supposed hitting ability and Chin-Lung Hu's defense, the Met pitching would never be enough to win games on their own. So... the solution was that we needed more hitting. More hitting = Daniel Murphy.

Defensively, Murphy has his faults. He's a bit too aggressive and tends to look less than balletic out in the field. Turner himself is also not exactly the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith. The fact is... You don't need to have an all-star defensive whiz at second. You don't need to be super stong up the middle. No Keith Hernandez... You don't. What you do need, is players that can hit. You think too many Met fans miss Rey Ordonez and his wimpy bat? Maybe a few, but you get my point... at least I hope you do. Murphy/Turner give the Mets a combo at second of a righty and a lefty who can handle a bat and not completely butcher the field. I only wish that the Mets/Terry Collins/Santa/ or... Whoever is making the calls could have come up with this a few weeks sooner.

Since starting this post, last week, Ike Davis was hurt and the Mets now have Murphy at first and Turner at second in full-time roles. I won't read too much into Turner's big night with the bat yesterday but I will say that it's pretty telling that the Mets are using these players to recover from losing their best offensive weapon from the early going. Now... Murphy and Turner do not a Davis make, but they've been solid.

Now... a new and strangely happy question: Does this mean we can get rid of Chin-Lung Hu or Willie Harris?

Probably not, but I want it bad.

Fernando Martinez: Should I say that his promotion bothers me? Well, it does. Not because I want Kirk Nieuwenhuis up (Frankly Pridie deserves the playing time he's getting) but because other players in AAA make much more sense. Lucas Duda for one... Nick Evans for another. Carrying a 3rd Bench OF does not make sense. Martinez should be playing every day in AAA and not serving as a PH in the majors. Come on!

Up This Week:

From The Horse's Mouth - I Poll Fans on Trade Possibilities.

Full Strength - What Can a Full Met Lineup Provide?

Quit Dicking Around - What is Wrong With R.A. Dickey?

Young Guns - A Look Into the Minors.

P.S. Sorry for the break in posts I was splitting time working from home and being a nurse.

And Greg Vaughn's Son

The Mets minors are still going a long in a mostly positive way. The pitchers... for the most part have all hit the first "Bump in the road" of the season but at the same time, the hitters are heating up. There are lots of things to be happy about. One of them, is related to Mr. Vaughn.

AAA:

Full Name: Ruben Dario Tejada

Born: 10/27/1989

Birthplace: Veraguas, Panama

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Before the season I referred to Tejada as a bench middle infielder in the same mold as a Chin-Lung Hu. He had good defense and that was about it. Thus far, in 2011 he's got an OPS of .800 and has 14 RBIs. Ruben Tejada has gone from looking like he couldn't hit to looking like he's one of the better hitting SS's. He's obviously hitting for some power with an .800 OPS, but how much? 3 Doubles, 2 Triples and 2 Homers in 22 games. On the down-side, he's still not running enough. 2 SBs and 1 CS make me really hesitant to see him in a lead-off role. Right now he's looking like a very nice #7/#8 hitter option at the major-league level.

Full Name: Kirk Robert Nieuwenhuis

Born: 08/07/1987

Birthplace: Santa Monica, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Captain Kirk is looking like a star. An OPS of 1.021 makes that pretty obvious. However all of his hitting is not turning into production. He trails Ruben Tejada by 8 RBIs. It's just a little screwy and has more to do with where they are hitting in the order. Kirk may not be capable of holding down a good enough CF to last in Citi-Field but he's hitting like a +++CF so... he's hitting well enough to play right field if he's asked to. If Pagan were going to be out for a month or longer I'd give Kirk a shot at coming up and getting a look as an everyday player. Yesterday I saw someone comment that He should come up and be on the bench. I wanted to smack that fan. Kirk could be a starting OF for the Mets in 2012 and they don't want to halt his progress by making him a bench player.

Full Name: Jesus Fernando Martinez

Born: 10/10/1988

Birthplace: Rio San Juan, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Fernando has already taken a 2 week break this season. By which you should know I mean he's been injured. He's responded to the critics by returning with a vengence. He's got 3 extra base hits in his 6 games back and his OPS is sitting at .935. However, don't get excited unless he stays healthy for all of May and continues to hit. Then you can start to think about whether he or Kirk will replace Carlos in right.

Full Name: Jenrry Manuel Mejia

Born: 10/11/1989

Birthplace: Tabara Arriba, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Jenrry has finally hit a bump in the road. After looking flawless in his first two starts he looked okay on the 19th and bad on the 24th. He's still really limiting hits and looking pretty sharp in general but it is evident that he belongs in AAA for the time being. Mejia is a pretty solid thought for a late-season call-up particularly if the Mets fall from contention.

AA:

Full Name: Joshua Satin

Born: 12/23/1984

Birthplace: Hidden Hills, CA

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Joshua Satin has emerged as the biggest threat in the Binghamton lineup. Once Den Dekker and others join him, that will likely shift, but for now... he's the king of Binghamton. He's really doing just about everything we could want him to. Hitting often and for power. He's also a touch old. He's 26 and only in AA. He could be in AAA easily but even if he were... is he better than Justin Turner? I don't think he is.

Full Name: Jordany V Valdespin

Born: 12/23/1987

Birthplace: San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: R

Jordany had a BAD start to the year but things are improving. He's now hitting .237 which is 50 points of improvement from where he was not so long ago. He's also shown speed and some power. The drawback with Jordany will always be his discipline. He's not good at taking a walk and he shows a David Wright-like ability to strike out. It's not good to see but it's not impossible to correct. He's on a short list of people who would potentially replace Jose Reyes in 2012 but I hope it doesn't come to that. Valdespin would make a GREAT bench player as he has good defense and a reasonably good bat.

Full Name: Mark E. Cohoon

Born: 09/15/1987

Birthplace: Burleson, TX

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Holt and Carson suffered bad starts and Cohoon too had a bump in the road. Mark's bump was REALLY minor. He has looked like the most polished and ready pitcher in the farm and he's the most likely guy to be called up next. He's blocked by Dillon Gee who is providing depth at the major-league level right now. If the Mets shift Capuano into the bullpen (as I think they should) then Cohoon will be next in line to get a call. Is AAA necessary for him to stop at on the way? I don't think it really is.

A+:

Full Name: Matthew G Den Dekker

Born: 08/10/1987

Birthplace: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Den Dekker was pegged by some as the best defensive OF in the Met's system. I just wanted to illustrate something about his hitting. Matt owns a 1.024 OPS and a 1.380 OPS over the past 10 games. 11 Doubles, 3 Triples and 1 Homer, almost half of his hits have gone for extra bases. The only thing holding Matt in A+ ball is likely the organization trying to demonstrate patience and diligence. He's ready to test the tougher pitching of AA and I hope he can continue his great hitting.

Full Name: Wilmer Alejandro Flores

Born: 08/06/1991

Birthplace: Valencia, Venezuela

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

So... Baseball America is ready to write Wilmer off. His approach is no good, he's terrible at defense and he has no power. If you can definitively say that after 1 month of baseball, I think you should thank Ms. Cleo for your information. Wilmer is hitting... for average. He's starting to pick up the pace for power, but if you look at his history it follows his progression. When he landed in A+ ball last year he hit the ball consistently and for no power for a little over two weeks before he settled in and started looking to drive the ball. Is his defense bad? You bet. Look for Marte to move to Binghamton and Wilmer to possibly shift to third.

Full Name: Jefry Leonal Marte

Born: 06/21/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 187

Bats: R

Throws: R

Marte is known for starting slow and then playing okay baseball to reclaim some of his potential. This season he started like a rocket. He's hit the ball with authority, 4 HRs and he's shown some discipline with 10 BBs. Marte has sorta re-established his value in the farm after falling out of many peoples lists. Marte is leading the team with Den Dekker and may soon be LEAVING the team with Den Dekker. I would expect to see Jefry and Matt move to AA and perhaps Flores shifting to 3rd.

Full Name: Cesar David Puello

Born: 04/01/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Puello rocketed into our combined consciousness in 2010 after having a big second half in Savannah. He's started 2011 slowly, but the hope is that he's starting to make corrections. He's bringing his batting average steadily upwards and he's hitting some doubles, but that STAR quality is missing. My biggest worry is his 2/18 BB/K ratio. He needs to fix that if he's going to stay in the Met's top 10 prospects.

Full Name: Matthew Harvey

Born: 03/27/1989

Birthplace: Groton, CT

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Another pitcher who had a rough go this week. Through 4 starts... FLAWLESS. The last one... shows he's a work in progress. Still, 5 starts in his minor league career and he's 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA and a K/9 over 9.00. Harvey has a bright future and still has a ticket to Binghamton at some point this season.

Full Name: Jeurys Familia

Born: 10/10/1989

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Familia has the benefit of not having pitched in the last couple days. Will he avoid the plague of bad outings? Well... I think he's got a good shot. The secret to Familia's success has been not allowing anyone on base. 9 hits and 7 walks in 25.2 innings makes it REALLY hard to lose ball games. Familia might actually be the pitching prospect with the highest ceiling in the Met system.

A:

Full Name: Aderlin Rodriguez

Born: 11/18/1991

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Do I really have a player hitting below .200 on this list? Yes, yes I do. First of all he's hitting .279 in his last 10 games and second of all, do you know how hard it is to have a .192 average and an SLG over .400? Aderlin's power is REAL. He's also shown he can probably stick as a 3B, though he's not a whiz in the field. He's hit all four of his homers in the past 5 games so it will be interesting to see how long his power streak will live. I am really okay with Rodriguez moving up the system pretty slowly so look for him to stick around in Savannah for a while.

Full Name: Cory Vaughn

Born: 05/01/1989

Birthplace: Carmichael, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Greg Vaughn's kid is not exactly a clone of his father. He's taller, he's faster and he's capable of playing all OF positions. Vaughn has been the only really consistent bat in Savannah and he's putting together a strong overall game. He's got some power and some speed, he's not too prone to strike out and he's been solid in the field. We are all waiting to see if he can start to belt with consistent power like he did in Brooklyn. If he can do that he'll rocket up the scouting reports.

Glass Half Awesome

Being a Met fan and an optimist is a bit difficult. The Mets aren't exactly awesome at doling out the feel good games and consistent wins. It's actually quite easy to be a Met fan and a pessimist. The Mets are in last place, they have really only looked good against Arizona, Reyes is likely leaving, Wright only knows how to strike out and the stands are as empty as a campus library on free taco day. So... here are a few reasons to buck up.

New York Mets

The Mets are 9 and 13 after winning four straight. That means that we were recently 5 and 13 with almost no reason to field a team. They are in last place and, as you might expect, the 4 Ace Phillies are in first. Why should you be happy?

• Have you heard? Jason Bay is back.
• David Wright is lining up to have excellent production.
• Jose Reyes looks like an All-Star again.
• Carlos Beltran is healthy.
• Chris Young is back.
• Dillon Gee looks like a real-deal MLB starter.
• Mike Pelfrey and Jonathan Niese might not be heading for the glue factory.
• Pedro Beato looks like an A+ Rule V pick.
• K-Rod has trade buzz.
• Luis Castillo and Ollie Perez are gone and never coming back.

Buffalo Bisons

Haven't we already been through the ringer with most of these guys? This team was supposed to have a lot of talent on it and they are only 8 and 11. Fernando Martinez is the biggest name on the roster and he's already been hurt this year. Why should you be happy?

• Kirk Nieuwenhuis is hitting a lot (15-game hitting streak)
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis is hitting for power (8 Doubles 3 HRs)
• Fernando Martinez is back (also hit a PH HR)
• Ruben Tejada has become a hitter.
• Jenrry Mejia look like he'll be ready for the MLB rotation later this year.
• Chris Schwinden and Jorge De La Torre look like they could be solid MLB bullpen guys.

Binghamton Mets

Another sub .500 team? Am I supposed to buy that the team will produce stars when they can't beat other AA teams? The top player is some kid I've never even heard of. Why should I be happy?

• Joshua Satin named EL player of the week.
• He's hitting .327 and powering the offense largely alone.
• He and I have similarly massive eyebrows.
• Alright... the real reason. PITCHING!
• Brad Holt (Remember Him?) 0.50 ERA, 18 IP, 14 Ks, 0.78 WHIP.
• Mark Cohoon 0.47 ERA, 19 IP, 20 Ks, 1.00 WHIP.
• Robert Carson 1.69 ERA, 16 IP, 16 Ks, 1.19 WHIP.
• Jordany Valdespin is walking more? (And hitting less)

Port St. Lucie Mets

Wait... this team doesn't fit. They're 17 and 2. The team has 9 players hitting over .280. The team has 4 starters with ERA's under 4.00. Clearly this team will have a few things to be happy about.

• Pedro Zapata is a base stealing CF. He's hitting .400 and has stolen 8 bags in 8 attempts.
• Francisco Pena has the body for power and is at least hitting for average.
• Matt Den Dekker has good gap power and excellent tools.
• Jefry Marte is exceeding every one's expectations and basically re-establishing his value.
• Wilmer Flores started slow, but has heated up. The power will return this is how he typically finds his groove. (He's hitting .297)
• Caesar Puello is also finding his groove and looks to be turning the corner in A+.
• Matt Harvey... He's 4 and 0 in 4 starts. He's got a 0.00 ERA with 27 K's in 22 innings. This is his first year in the minors and he's already demanding to move up in the system. (Not verbally)
• Jeurys Familia... He's had less luck in his starts. He's only 1 and 0 but his 0.35 ERA and 25 Ks are pretty sweet. Sweeter still is his 0.62 WHIP.
• Nicholas Carr is establishing himself as a potential late inning relief man.

So... always remember that if you look hard enough, there are plenty of things to find to make you happy.

The Core

You will often hear teams refer to their "Core" players. The guys that make up the crux of their team. Sometimes, like in St. Louis, this can be one player. Sometimes, like in the Bronx, it's a group of guys that you raised from the farm yourself. Sometimes, like in Philly, you sign half of the players in your core. Once upon a time, the Mets had a core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Delgado. That isn't the case anymore.

The Current Core 4:

David Wright - David Wright is still the face of this franchise. When David Wright's current contract runs out... the Mets WILL re-new it. They WILL sign a long-term contract with Wright for numerous reasons and he will continue to be a member of the core. Not only is David Wright the rock of the club but he's also the rock of the lineup. He's been healthy and productive every year since he cam up. That is not a super easy thing to achieve.

Ike Davis - The next piece of the core is not Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran OR Johan Santana. Ike Davis is the next piece of the team. His bat is respected... though a little under-valued. (Adam LaRoche... REALLY?!?) Ike Davis has a sweet glove and a steady approach... not to mention enough power to start leading this team in HRs as early as 2011. Davis will be a Met for a long time. Yes... that means we won't be getting Pujols. Does anyone really think he'd come to Queens, given his options?

Jose Reyes - Until the day he's traded or leaves via free agency, Jose is part of the Met core. Now... I already traded Jose from my fantasy keeper league (for Elvis Andrus and Carlos Santana) as part of my personal process of distancing myself from a player I love before he goes. I just don't want another Robin Ventura or Scott Gomez situation. When Reyes shows up in a Yankees or Phillies jersey in 2012, I don't want to be TOO upset.

Jonathan Niese - Pelfrey isn't super special and Johan Santana will only be with the Mets for so long... Niese, is the core pitcher we should focus on. Now... there is nothing wrong with Pelfrey or Santana or even Dickey and Young. They just aren't going to ever be the heart and soul of the New York Mets. Niese looks like he's going to get the chance in 2011 to be the heart and soul of the New York Met's rotation. For better or worse.

Hired Guns:

Jason Bay - Jason Bay was one of Omar Minaya's WORST signings. The year the Mets desperately needed pitching... he signed a streaky hitter who's biggest success came in a park with a short (extremely high) left field fence. With all of that, I can't fault Bay for anything. He plays hard and tries his best every time he plays. If he rebounds, his bat will be a big part of the success the Mets manage, but he will NEVER be part of the Met core.

Carlos Beltran - He was once part of the core. In a contract year, playing injured, coming off injuries and switching to a new position... I've moved on. I moved on during his second year on the team, but I think most people have moved on by now. The Mets are praying that Beltran can play enough and a well enough to give them some value via trade. At this point a prospect of any caliber and salary relief might be enough. If Beltran can be healthy and the Mets are winning... I still trade him at the deadline.

Johan Santana - Santana is on the Mets beyond 2011, but he doesn't look like he will be part of the Met's future success, so I am pulling this injury waiting to happen from the core player list. Like Bay, I like Santana as a person and a player, but there becomes a time where you are not part of the team's current and future success, you merely are a talented player getting a pay-check. I think Santana is at that point.

Francisco Rodriguez - No question about playing for money with K-Rod. K-Rod wants his extension to kick in and that means he needs to pitch well. If he does pitch well, he will close games and he will be a burden through 2012. If he does not, he's gone. It's really that simple. I was excited when Francisco was signed. I can't even fault Omar on the contract too much. All I can say is, THAT, is far too much to spend on ANY closer.

Future Core:

Jose Reyes - I list Reyes twice because of the chance that Jose plays well and the Mets having money (supposedly... stupid Wilpons) for 2012. I hope Jose is back, even if it means that I'll now need to over-pay to get him back on my fantasy team. Jose on the Mets, means that he is part of the core of the team. It's really as simple as that. I very much hop I can continue to call Wright and Reyes the corner-stones of the Mets beyond 2011.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia could come up this season, he could come up next. When he does, he might be a front-line starter or a shut-down reliever. Either way, Mejia is the best hope the Mets have of answering the dynamic pitching of Philly. Though I suppose that: Edwin Jackson or Adam Wainwright could come to the Mets on long-term deals and become parts of the core... My money is on Mejia being the biggest change to the 2012 rotation.

Fernando Martinez - Forever prospect, Fernando Martinez, just turned in an excellent spring training and was sent to AAA to build more skills and prove he can stay healthy. This young kid... with arthritis, could be the starting RF for the Mets the day that Beltran is not on the team. Now... it could be Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis or someone else entirely but... for now, let us assume Fernando is healthy in 2011. He is the first and best choice to succeed Beltran and if he does reach his potential... he's also going to become a core member of the team.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk has an outside chance of being an MLB CF. Why do I only give him an outside chance? Because Angel Pagan (who almost made this list) is likely going to have that position and because Kirk's defense isn't quite CF caliber. It's close and he should man CF for AAA but it's not a guarantee. It might be more likely that he winds up in a corner OF position at which point his power might look a little light.

Josh Thole - I won't deny that I value a higher batting average over additional power. I liked Olerud WAY more than Delgado and I like Thole for the same reason. I don't care if it's a single. I just want you to get a hit when you come to the plate. Josh does that. What he's adding is improved defense, better game calling and little power of his own. Sure, he's never going to sniff 20 or 30 HRs but he could become a 10 HR hitter. He also has enough pop to hit a few doubles and enough speed, that in the wacky dimensions of Citi-Field, to hit a few triples. All this adds up to a franchise catcher (in my eyes) and someone I'd place in my core.

Being in the core and being outside the core doesn't mean much. It really has most to do with a willingness for the team to trade you when the time eventually comes. Core players are harder to deal because they are the foundation you wish to build off of. The reason someone like Josh Thole makes the list while Angel Pagan doesn't is not because of the level of skill but the difficulty to replace. Here's hoping that our foundation is pretty good in 2012.

Prospectin'

I just wanted to take a moment to talk about some of the prospects and pseudo-prospects at camp that might make an impact on the team in the future. I'll be repeating the post on a semi-weekly basis.

Nick Evans - Evans had a hit and has come across as a big positive for the Mets thus far. The problem being that he's out of options and the Mets already have Hu, Emaus, Hairston, Paulino and Harris penciled into the bench. Evans might make himself a trade candidate by playing well but I have a hard time seeing the Mets losing Emaus to keep him.

Fernando Martinez - Martinez had a good day at the plate but was a DH. As long as he's playing I won't complain. Martinez stands a good chance of being a mid-season call-up should Bay or Beltran need to miss an extended time.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy looked pretty good and must have made Terry Collins look up when he followed up a Castillo gaffe inning with a ground-rule double. How about giving Murph or Emaus a start tomorrow?

Mike Nickeas - Nickeas has impressed me with his glove. He's got a strong arm and he also gunned out a runner. Nickeas will probably sit in AAA in case Thole or Paulino are hurt.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada has a great glove and knows how to use it both from SS and 2B but his bat is not presumably ready. Not so fast... Terry Collins thinks Ruben is back into the starting 2B discussion. It's a long-shot but the hitting looks much improved. For me to get excited I need him to prove he can steal 20+ bases.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is a lefty bat with reasonably good contact and a little speed and power. He was an un-impressive BPAB (Bench Player At Best) until the AFL came along and he turned some heads. He K's like he's a power hitter and that can't continue if he's going to actually be good enough to become a MLB starter.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk is a player that coaches love... which is either something that Kirk should worry about in the showers or... he's simply a guy who follows instruction. Either way Kirk needs to be on your radar because he's very much in the mix for the Post-Beltran Mets.

Lucas Duda - Duda is a large man who hits the ball. He's like Chris Carter minus the complete insanity factor (Yes... I miss Animal too) but Duda will probably NOT make the Mets. The issue is that Duda plays LF and 1B and the Mets wanted bench OFs who could do more. Enter Hairston and Harris and exit Duda. 2012 he will at least be our big lefty on the bench.

Justin Turner - Turner is not a GREAT fielder but he is the kind of bench player that you pay for. He hits and can play all of the IF positions.

Brad Emaus - Emaus is a high OBP IF with a powerful build that doesn't lend itself to graceful fielding. Unlike Murphy he's played 2B more and can handle the position adequately. He should make the team if only because the Mets have to give him back if he doesn't.

Wilfredo Tovar - Wilmer Flores gets more buzz as he's heads and tails the better hitter, but Tovar might be the best overall SS in the system. Great fielding and a pretty good bat. The issue is that Tovar will likely be at the same level as Flores so... unless or until Wilmer moves to another position he's not going to get enough playing time.

Pedro Beato - Beato is the other rule 5 pick and I've seen him pitch. He's got a great arm. The question is, will he be worth the roster spot? I'm saying yes right now.

Jenrry Mejia - 99.999% chance Mejia goes to AAA 99.999% chance Mejia is on the MLB club by this fall.

Matt Harvey - Mets top pick is not SUPER far from the majors but, while I'd like to see him pitch to MLB players I predict he starts in Port St. Lucie.