Keeping the Pace

With the Mets on a roll it seems like a good time to do some math to see what they are on Pace for. I mean, if everyone can stay relatively healthy... Note, these stats are just simple projections based on their production so far vs. how many at bats I think they COULD reach.

Jose Reyes, SS: 94/6/35/35/47 - Jose is on pace to have a good year with plenty of stolen bases and runs scored. However I was expecting more. It seemed to me that Reyes' projections would be better. He's really having a great early season and the numbers are merely GOOD. With Bay back in the lineup and with Murphy settling in for support, I'd expect the pace numbers to go up.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: 67/10/77/38/10 - I think I, Daniel Murphy and most Met fans will sign up for those numbers from Murphy. They aren't blow me away numbers, but they're solid numbers from a 2B. I won't go so far as to say that Murphy could exceed them, but I will say that he is capable of this kind of production.

David Wright, 3B: 116/32/97/77/32 - A 30/30 season? Gee... when you look at the fact David is a career hitter nearly 50 points higher then he's at, this production seems insane. Can he get these numbers? Sure. Can he exceed them? Maybe? You know... if Wright continues to hit well with Bay in the lineup and improves his batting average back to where it's usually sat, he could have TREMENDOUS numbers.

Carlos Beltran, RF: 85/20/66/39/0 - Beltran will steal a base. It's tough with basic mathematical projections to deal with someone who just hasn't tried something yet. Imagine if I were to project 0 HRs from Justin Morneau? Beltran's numbers are pretty solid but I think the RBI numbers should be a touch higher and if the knee flares up... everything could be much lower.

Jason Bay, LF: 118/24/71/47/0 - Okay... so Bay's small sample size skews the numbers and they look all sorts of strange. We're working with what we have. If Bay continued on this pace the Flushing Faithful would likely issue a pardon to Bay for 2010.

Ike Davis, 1B: 89/28/124/83/0 - So... the stolen base numbers are accurate. Could Ike be that good? I think he could be BETTER. I mean, I think Ike has the power to lead the team in homers so that 28 could easily be eclipsed by something on the brighter side of 35. The other numbers reflect Ike's improved discipline at the plate, which is hard to deny.

Angel Pagan, CF: 46/7/39/59/26 - I have to believe that Angel is better than this, but at the same time... I can't predict EVERYONE to have a good year. So if I can get those big years I've already listed above, I'd suffer with a diminished Pagan... at least until we promote Captain Kirk.

Josh Thole, C: 22/0/50/29/0 - Another victim of a slow start, Thole has proven to still be a clutch hitter and is learning to adjust to pitchers now that he's a known quantity. I would imagine that he'll exceed these numbers easily even losing additional playing time to Paulino's bat.

Maximum Value

Different hitters are better suited for different spots in the lineup. As Terry Collins tries out various variations, I just wanted to see where the Mets might be MAXIMIZING the value of their players.

David Wright, 3B: Wright cannot lead off. He's a touch too strike-out prone to be a pure OBP guy. Though... if you look at him hitting second it's not so bad. He's fast and usually sees at least 3 pitches in an at-bat. Frankly, we all know that Wright is made for the 3rd spot. He's fast and hits a ton, but he's become as free swinging as a #4 hitter. This means that if not for Wright's legs... he'd probably be moved back to the #5 spot. (Max Value: 2nd/3rd/4th/5th)

Jose Reyes, SS: Reyes is a GREAT lead off hitter, but is that the "BEST" spot for him on the Mets? Well... yeah, it is. He could hit second, but nobody on the team is going to be better at moving on the bases and he's not the most disciplined swinger. Though I will say that Jose COULD be a #3 hitter (on the right team). Imagine if Boston could get Crawford and Ellsbury to hit. Carl and Jose hit similarly, if the Mets had Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury on the roster... yeah... I'd have to hit Reyes 3rd. (Max Value: 1st/3rd)

Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran's legs are not what they used to be but he's still not Ike Davis on the base-paths. Beltran can't lead off and his power and so-so average don't lend themselves to the #2 spot. You could still hit Carlos 3rd (The Mets might want to try it) and the 4th spot still works to utilize his mix of talents, but what about late in the order. What about putting Carlos BEHIND Bay and Davis? It doesn't hurt a ton to have Carlos bat 5th or 6th, but maximum value isn't there. (Max Value: 3rd/4th)

Ike Davis, 1B: Davis has the speed to NEVER hit above 4th in a lineup. That's okay because he's got the power and hitting skill to hit 4th or 5th. Hitting Davis any earlier cripples your speed on the base-paths and hitting him later than 6th wastes his power. I don't really think it matters WHERE among 4, 5 & 6 you put Ike, but I think you HAVE to put him there. (Max Value: 4th/5th/6th)

Jason Bay, LF: When Jason Bay returns we could potentially think of him as a mix of power and speed. It's not lead-off speed, but he can swipe a bag if he gets into the right situation. Bay, like Wright is a bit of a free swinger and a touch streaky. Unlike Wright, his speed doesn't force him to the front of the lineup. His power (as a Met) doesn't lend itself to the clean-up role either. Bay would fit nicely in most roles from #5-#7. (Max Value: 5th/6th/7th)

Angel Pagan, CF: Angel is mired in an AWFUL slump, but let us pretend he's the Angel we know and love. THAT Angel Pagan is designed to hit in the lead-off spot or 2nd in the lineup. He's got the speed and bat to make those roles work. Terry Collins keeps throwing Angel into the middle of the lineup... I don't see it. Angel is not a good #5/#6 hitter. He's got some power, but demoting him to that spot is dumb. If he's not hitting for average in the front of the lineup, put him in the 7th or 8th spot until he comes around. (Max Value: 1st/2nd)

Daniel Murphy, 2B: Murphy has SOME speed but can't lead-off. Daniel can hit 2nd but really... he's not a front of the lineup guy. Terry Collins moved Angel out of the 2-hole and has tried Murphy out there. The issue is that Murphy is FAR better suited to hitting 6th or 7th than Angel. He's more of an RBI hitter than an OBP hitter so it makes sense for Murphy to be there to protect the back of the core.

Josh Thole, C: Josh Thole proved yesterday that he could be a #2 hitter ala Paul LoDuca. He has patience and can slap singles and put wood on the bat when he needs to. He's not fast but he does have considerable value in the #2 hole. In fact, Thole's BEST value might be there. Though he doesn't hurt you hitting 7th or 8th. Hitting 7th or 8th he's merely an annoying slap hitter in the latter part of a lineup. (Max Value: 2nd/7th/8th)

Willie Harris, LF: I REALLY see Willie Harris as ONLY an alternate but if he's playing there is one spot he's clearly best suited for. Harris is an ideal #2 hitter. He looks at pitches and can hit with people on base. In fact if Harris could not hit second based on value, I'd probably bat the pitcher 8th and him 9th. (Max Value: 2nd)

Brad Emaus, 2B: Emaus is supposed to be an OBP machine. He's supposed to make good contact too. He's also supposed to be a better fielder than Daniel Murphy. Can you tell I'm not an Emaus fan? Anyway, Emaus if he hit as advertised would make sense hitting 2nd or 8th. in the 2-hole he can see extra pitches and get on base for the core of the lineup. In the 8th spot he should at least be good for clearing the pitchers spot. I'm pretty sold on the Mets returning Emaus to Toronto before the end of May. (Max Value: 2nd/8th)

Met Lineup vs. RHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
4. David Wright, 3B (R)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Met Lineup vs. LHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Brad Emaus, 2B (R)

Up This Week:

25 Other Things: 25 Things that might distract you from the foibles of the Met's 25 MLB players.

Generation K 2.0: Mejia, Harvey, Familia, Holt and others look to be what Isringhausen never was.

Bay It Ain't So: With Bay potentially back, let's start the micro-scope on his Met career.

Minority Report: Who has deflated my hopes and dreams?

Who Ya Gonna Call?

There is something weird in the neighborhood, but I'm not sure Bill Murray can help the Mets this season. Perhaps it's enough that the Mets have contained some of their ghosts using proton packs and traps and some financial freedom from the Wilpons. Hopefully Alderson, DePodesta and Collins won't cross the streams. Why? Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light. That's why.

The Gatekeeper: Zuul

Who holds the Mets 2011 in check? Is it Carlos Beltran and his whacky knee? Johan Santana and his rehab program? Jose Reyes and his walk year? No silly... it's Mike Pelfrey and his shaky confidence.

Mike Pelfrey is being called upon to Ace the Met rotation in the absence of Johan Sanatana. Th problem seems to be that he has forgotten he's a capable pitcher. Survey says yes but I'm gaining doubts every time I see Mike pitch. He's getting hit and getting hit hard. It's only spring but I'm a worrier.

The Key Master: Vinz Cortho

Who holds the key to Pelfrey and the Met's 2011 success? Is it David Wright's bat? Jason Bay's brain? Ike Davis' rugged good looks? Jonathan Niese enormous nose? R.A. Dickey majestic beard? Wrong again, it's Josh Thole.

Josh Thole is not only the most improved offensive player from 2010 but he's also going to be the secret to our success or failure as a team. I'm not talking about his improved power (might hit 8 HRs) or his improved defense. It's how he's going to handle the Met pitchers. I'm hoping he enrolled in some psychology courses because when Pelfrey's Super Ego and Id go at it... it's ugly.

The Core

You will often hear teams refer to their "Core" players. The guys that make up the crux of their team. Sometimes, like in St. Louis, this can be one player. Sometimes, like in the Bronx, it's a group of guys that you raised from the farm yourself. Sometimes, like in Philly, you sign half of the players in your core. Once upon a time, the Mets had a core of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Delgado. That isn't the case anymore.

The Current Core 4:

David Wright - David Wright is still the face of this franchise. When David Wright's current contract runs out... the Mets WILL re-new it. They WILL sign a long-term contract with Wright for numerous reasons and he will continue to be a member of the core. Not only is David Wright the rock of the club but he's also the rock of the lineup. He's been healthy and productive every year since he cam up. That is not a super easy thing to achieve.

Ike Davis - The next piece of the core is not Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran OR Johan Santana. Ike Davis is the next piece of the team. His bat is respected... though a little under-valued. (Adam LaRoche... REALLY?!?) Ike Davis has a sweet glove and a steady approach... not to mention enough power to start leading this team in HRs as early as 2011. Davis will be a Met for a long time. Yes... that means we won't be getting Pujols. Does anyone really think he'd come to Queens, given his options?

Jose Reyes - Until the day he's traded or leaves via free agency, Jose is part of the Met core. Now... I already traded Jose from my fantasy keeper league (for Elvis Andrus and Carlos Santana) as part of my personal process of distancing myself from a player I love before he goes. I just don't want another Robin Ventura or Scott Gomez situation. When Reyes shows up in a Yankees or Phillies jersey in 2012, I don't want to be TOO upset.

Jonathan Niese - Pelfrey isn't super special and Johan Santana will only be with the Mets for so long... Niese, is the core pitcher we should focus on. Now... there is nothing wrong with Pelfrey or Santana or even Dickey and Young. They just aren't going to ever be the heart and soul of the New York Mets. Niese looks like he's going to get the chance in 2011 to be the heart and soul of the New York Met's rotation. For better or worse.

Hired Guns:

Jason Bay - Jason Bay was one of Omar Minaya's WORST signings. The year the Mets desperately needed pitching... he signed a streaky hitter who's biggest success came in a park with a short (extremely high) left field fence. With all of that, I can't fault Bay for anything. He plays hard and tries his best every time he plays. If he rebounds, his bat will be a big part of the success the Mets manage, but he will NEVER be part of the Met core.

Carlos Beltran - He was once part of the core. In a contract year, playing injured, coming off injuries and switching to a new position... I've moved on. I moved on during his second year on the team, but I think most people have moved on by now. The Mets are praying that Beltran can play enough and a well enough to give them some value via trade. At this point a prospect of any caliber and salary relief might be enough. If Beltran can be healthy and the Mets are winning... I still trade him at the deadline.

Johan Santana - Santana is on the Mets beyond 2011, but he doesn't look like he will be part of the Met's future success, so I am pulling this injury waiting to happen from the core player list. Like Bay, I like Santana as a person and a player, but there becomes a time where you are not part of the team's current and future success, you merely are a talented player getting a pay-check. I think Santana is at that point.

Francisco Rodriguez - No question about playing for money with K-Rod. K-Rod wants his extension to kick in and that means he needs to pitch well. If he does pitch well, he will close games and he will be a burden through 2012. If he does not, he's gone. It's really that simple. I was excited when Francisco was signed. I can't even fault Omar on the contract too much. All I can say is, THAT, is far too much to spend on ANY closer.

Future Core:

Jose Reyes - I list Reyes twice because of the chance that Jose plays well and the Mets having money (supposedly... stupid Wilpons) for 2012. I hope Jose is back, even if it means that I'll now need to over-pay to get him back on my fantasy team. Jose on the Mets, means that he is part of the core of the team. It's really as simple as that. I very much hop I can continue to call Wright and Reyes the corner-stones of the Mets beyond 2011.

Jenrry Mejia - Mejia could come up this season, he could come up next. When he does, he might be a front-line starter or a shut-down reliever. Either way, Mejia is the best hope the Mets have of answering the dynamic pitching of Philly. Though I suppose that: Edwin Jackson or Adam Wainwright could come to the Mets on long-term deals and become parts of the core... My money is on Mejia being the biggest change to the 2012 rotation.

Fernando Martinez - Forever prospect, Fernando Martinez, just turned in an excellent spring training and was sent to AAA to build more skills and prove he can stay healthy. This young kid... with arthritis, could be the starting RF for the Mets the day that Beltran is not on the team. Now... it could be Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis or someone else entirely but... for now, let us assume Fernando is healthy in 2011. He is the first and best choice to succeed Beltran and if he does reach his potential... he's also going to become a core member of the team.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk has an outside chance of being an MLB CF. Why do I only give him an outside chance? Because Angel Pagan (who almost made this list) is likely going to have that position and because Kirk's defense isn't quite CF caliber. It's close and he should man CF for AAA but it's not a guarantee. It might be more likely that he winds up in a corner OF position at which point his power might look a little light.

Josh Thole - I won't deny that I value a higher batting average over additional power. I liked Olerud WAY more than Delgado and I like Thole for the same reason. I don't care if it's a single. I just want you to get a hit when you come to the plate. Josh does that. What he's adding is improved defense, better game calling and little power of his own. Sure, he's never going to sniff 20 or 30 HRs but he could become a 10 HR hitter. He also has enough pop to hit a few doubles and enough speed, that in the wacky dimensions of Citi-Field, to hit a few triples. All this adds up to a franchise catcher (in my eyes) and someone I'd place in my core.

Being in the core and being outside the core doesn't mean much. It really has most to do with a willingness for the team to trade you when the time eventually comes. Core players are harder to deal because they are the foundation you wish to build off of. The reason someone like Josh Thole makes the list while Angel Pagan doesn't is not because of the level of skill but the difficulty to replace. Here's hoping that our foundation is pretty good in 2012.

Over/Under:

If you play fantasy baseball, and I'd bet that if you are reading this, your either my mother... or you do, then you know that Yahoo and ESPN and CBS and every other fantasy sports web-site will predict before the season how players will do. These predictions come courtesy of ESPN.com and reflect the expert opinions of their fantasy gurus. Today's article is a diversion into where I see the Mets finishing... in relation to their predictions.

Jose Reyes, SS (S):

• Avg: .286 (Even)
  
• Slg: .441 (Even)
• Runs: 86 (Over)
  
• HRs: 12 (Under)
• RBIs: 56 (Even)
• BBs: 42 (Over... I hope)
• SBs: 36 (Over)

Jose's numbers from ESPN reflect him not having a healthy season. That might be fair but I think that we should be basing the predictions on Jose being healthy as he seems to be that now. His HR totals should not be above 10 if he's still a Met for the full season but at the same time, Jose can and will steal more than 36 bags. If he's traded... all of these stats change... but... I probably then have to hate him.

Angel Pagan, CF (S):

• Avg: .283 (Even)
• Slg: .417 (Even)
  
• Runs: 76 (Over)
• HRs: 9 (Over)
  
• RBIs: 62 (Over)
• BBs: 40 (Even)
  
• SBs: 30 (Under)

Angel Pagan is predicted to have an okay year but I get confused when his power numbers are lower than Reyes and his production of Runs and RBIs falls short of Jason Bay. I would also say that hitting 2nd all year would likely cut his freedom on the bases as the Mets don't want to take the bats away from Wright, Beltran, Davis and Bay with a caught stealing.

David Wright, 3B (R):

• Avg: .294 (Over)
• Slg: .517 (Even)
• Runs: 95 (Over)
• HRs: 25 (Over)
• RBIs: 100 (Over)
• BBs: 76 (Even)
• SBs: 19 (Even)

Prior to the injury plagued seasons of Beltran and Reyes and the move to Citi-Field, David Wright was a defacto top 10 fantasy pick. He's still somewhere in the top 20 but he's definitely dropped. The average has been hurt, but as I've written before, that is partially due to a lack of production and support (Beltran hasn't exactly been there to back him up so often.) The HR totals are predicted to drop and the Runs and RBIs stay in the good but not GREAT range and I disagree. If Beltran and Reyes are healthy and Bay is some version of what he USED to be, Wright has a BIG year.

Carlos Beltran, RF (S):

• Avg: .276 (Under)
• Slg: .469 (Over)
• Runs: 63 (Even)
• HRs: 18 (Over)
• RBIs: 68 (Over)
• BBs: 64 (Even)
• SBs: 10 (Under)

Say what you will about Beltran's knees. When he's been healthy... he hits. Though a .276 average seems a bit high. He's much more of a .250-.260 hitter. However hitting (all year) in the middle of the Mets order should net Carlos more than 68 RBIs as he's likely to hit closer to 25-30 HRs if he's healthy. HOWEVER... face facts and learn that Carlos Beltran will never reach double digit SBs again.

Ike Davis, 1B (L):

• Avg: .272 (Even)
• Slg: .473 (Over)
• Runs: 74 (Even)
• HRs: 22 (Over)
• RBIs: 75 (Over)
• BBs: 78 (Even)
• SBs: 2 (Even)

ESPN bothers me when I look at Ike Davis. They take his 2010 numbers and replicate them for a full season and call it a prediction. This assumes that Ike Davis has REACHED his ceiling after 1 year. It doesn't touch on the fact that he's a 30 HR threat or that he's going to be hitting behind Wright and Beltran (maybe Bay) and the fact he was a consistent producer in his ROOKIE year.

Jason Bay, LF (R):

• Avg: .268 (Even)
• Slg: .454 (Even)
• Runs: 85 (Even)
• HRs: 19 (Even)
• RBIs: 84 (Even)
• BBs: 74 (Even)
• SBs: 12 (Even)

If Bay is healthy and hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup all year... these numbers look accurate. This also assumes his 2010 was an aberration and that the Mets other players stay healthy. Most Met fans will gladly take these numbers from Jason Bay in his second year. Anything is better than what he did (while healthy) in 2010.

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L):

• Avg: .280 (Even)
• Slg: .445 (Even)
• Runs: 37 (Over)
• HRs: 7 (Over)
• RBIs: 38 (Over)
• BBs: 21 (Over)
• SBs: 4 (Even)

At first glance you might think I differ GREATLY with ESPN. That isn't totally true. We differ on ONE key factor. I see Murphy as the starting second baseman, and they see him on the bench. On the bench, their numbers are accurate but over a full season you can probably multiply a lot of those numbers by 2... even if he's platooning.

Josh Thole, C (L):

• Avg: .270 (Even)
• Slg: .382 (Even)
• Runs: 36 (Over)
• HRs: 5 (Even)
• RBIs: 36 (Over)
• BBs: 35 (Over)
• SBs: 2 (Over)

ESPN predicts that Thole and Paulino will be an even split. I can't agree less. Thole is a lefty and that will get him into more games alone. Add that Thole is the "Catcher of the Future" and that he hits for a higher average and is more consistent and I think we all know who is getting the lion's share of the playing time. The other issue I see is that ESPN over-looks the fact that Thole can run... for a catcher. He's not going to steal bases because of his speed, but because he has enough speed to take advantage of sloppy play.

Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

• ERA: 4.00 (Under)
• Whip: 1.39 (Even)
• BBs: 68 (Even)
• Ws: 13 (Even)
• Ks: 113 (Even)
• IP: 207 (Even)

ESPN is pretty accurate with Big Pelf. I'm not sure if anyone in America looks at Mike and sees an Ace. I do see a pitcher who can keep you in games and maybe be looked at as a #3 pitcher. Even so... I don't see Pelfrey having a 20 win season for the Mets in 2011 and those 13 wins aren't a sure thing either.

Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

• ERA: 4.36 (Under)
• Whip: 1.46 (Under)
• BBs: 69 (Even)
• Ws: 11 (Over)
• Ks: 153 (Even)
• IP: 190 (Over)

Niese is the closest thing to an Ace that the Mets have this season. He can get K's at a decent clip and has shown the ability to be dominant. That ERA well North of 4.00 is a bit extreme from Jon as it seems ESPN predicts he should be getting worse with more time in the pros. I guess they view his tired arm issues as a sign he wasn't that good instead of a sign he'd thrown more innings then he had been used to.

R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.89 (Even)
• Whip: 1.30 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 10 (Over)
• Ks: 107 (Over)
• IP: 199 (Over)

Really ESPN? If there is one thing I've heard about knuckle-ballers it's that their arms get tired. ESPN doesn't see Dickey as the work-horse I believe he will be. He's not an Ace, nobody is saying that. He is a pitcher who can pitch deep into games. Also... if that slow knuckler is working that means he can be a fastball/change-up pitcher... except his balls dance a WHOLE lot more. If he can do that... the K's will follow.

Chris Young, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.88 (Even)
• Whip: 1.31 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Even)
• Ks: 77 (Even)
• IP: 102 (Even)

Now, I could take issue with Young's numbers being poor, but I can't expect ESPN to predict that Chris Young will pitch 200 innings. His arm just hasn't been that healthy. However, you can probably take this half-year estimate and do the math to come up with what his numbers would be as he reaches 150... 180 innings pitched. I like Young. It's hard not to. I'm hoping that he can just stay healthy.

Chris Capuano, SP (L)

• ERA: 3.81 (Over)
• Whip: 1.26 (Over)
• BBs: 23 (Even)
• Ws: 5 (Over)
• Ks: 64 (Even)
• IP: 85 (Even)

It seems that ESPN predicts Capuano AND Gee will both win that 5th starter job. I'll forgive them because it lets me not put Gee here. Capuano looks like the best option for 5th starter right now. He isn't great but he'll keep us in games. The thing with ESPN is that they adjusted his ERA and Whip to factor Capuano ALSO relieving. The more he starts... the higher the ERA and Whip. When Santana comes back, Chris moves to the bullpen or the Mets will simply have other injured pitchers for him to replace.

Johan Santana, SP (L)*

• ERA: 3.13 (Over)
• Whip: 1.25 (Even)
• BBs: 33 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Over)
• Ks: 91 (Even)
• IP: 118 (Even)

Johan Santana will not pitch for the Mets until June (at the earliest) but he COULD get to 118 innings if he's back then. I'll point out that missing spring training and entering the year late, will not be the BEST FRIEND of his ERA but at the same time... if he getss those 118 innings, I think he'll get a few more wins. It all evens out.

I'm excited about the Mets season, even if it isn't one where my expectations are super high. I think that Collins and Alderson have the team on the right foot and if Santa's listening... maybe I even get new owners who know how to leave baseball to the baseball people.