PLATOON

Before the season started a certain blogger (ME) might have mentioned that he wanted a certain player (MURPHY) to platoon with a righty but basically get 85% of the playing time. This blogger said this because despite Brad Emaus' supposed hitting ability and Chin-Lung Hu's defense, the Met pitching would never be enough to win games on their own. So... the solution was that we needed more hitting. More hitting = Daniel Murphy.

Defensively, Murphy has his faults. He's a bit too aggressive and tends to look less than balletic out in the field. Turner himself is also not exactly the reincarnation of Ozzie Smith. The fact is... You don't need to have an all-star defensive whiz at second. You don't need to be super stong up the middle. No Keith Hernandez... You don't. What you do need, is players that can hit. You think too many Met fans miss Rey Ordonez and his wimpy bat? Maybe a few, but you get my point... at least I hope you do. Murphy/Turner give the Mets a combo at second of a righty and a lefty who can handle a bat and not completely butcher the field. I only wish that the Mets/Terry Collins/Santa/ or... Whoever is making the calls could have come up with this a few weeks sooner.

Since starting this post, last week, Ike Davis was hurt and the Mets now have Murphy at first and Turner at second in full-time roles. I won't read too much into Turner's big night with the bat yesterday but I will say that it's pretty telling that the Mets are using these players to recover from losing their best offensive weapon from the early going. Now... Murphy and Turner do not a Davis make, but they've been solid.

Now... a new and strangely happy question: Does this mean we can get rid of Chin-Lung Hu or Willie Harris?

Probably not, but I want it bad.

Fernando Martinez: Should I say that his promotion bothers me? Well, it does. Not because I want Kirk Nieuwenhuis up (Frankly Pridie deserves the playing time he's getting) but because other players in AAA make much more sense. Lucas Duda for one... Nick Evans for another. Carrying a 3rd Bench OF does not make sense. Martinez should be playing every day in AAA and not serving as a PH in the majors. Come on!

Up This Week:

From The Horse's Mouth - I Poll Fans on Trade Possibilities.

Full Strength - What Can a Full Met Lineup Provide?

Quit Dicking Around - What is Wrong With R.A. Dickey?

Young Guns - A Look Into the Minors.

P.S. Sorry for the break in posts I was splitting time working from home and being a nurse.

Keeping the Pace

With the Mets on a roll it seems like a good time to do some math to see what they are on Pace for. I mean, if everyone can stay relatively healthy... Note, these stats are just simple projections based on their production so far vs. how many at bats I think they COULD reach.

Jose Reyes, SS: 94/6/35/35/47 - Jose is on pace to have a good year with plenty of stolen bases and runs scored. However I was expecting more. It seemed to me that Reyes' projections would be better. He's really having a great early season and the numbers are merely GOOD. With Bay back in the lineup and with Murphy settling in for support, I'd expect the pace numbers to go up.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: 67/10/77/38/10 - I think I, Daniel Murphy and most Met fans will sign up for those numbers from Murphy. They aren't blow me away numbers, but they're solid numbers from a 2B. I won't go so far as to say that Murphy could exceed them, but I will say that he is capable of this kind of production.

David Wright, 3B: 116/32/97/77/32 - A 30/30 season? Gee... when you look at the fact David is a career hitter nearly 50 points higher then he's at, this production seems insane. Can he get these numbers? Sure. Can he exceed them? Maybe? You know... if Wright continues to hit well with Bay in the lineup and improves his batting average back to where it's usually sat, he could have TREMENDOUS numbers.

Carlos Beltran, RF: 85/20/66/39/0 - Beltran will steal a base. It's tough with basic mathematical projections to deal with someone who just hasn't tried something yet. Imagine if I were to project 0 HRs from Justin Morneau? Beltran's numbers are pretty solid but I think the RBI numbers should be a touch higher and if the knee flares up... everything could be much lower.

Jason Bay, LF: 118/24/71/47/0 - Okay... so Bay's small sample size skews the numbers and they look all sorts of strange. We're working with what we have. If Bay continued on this pace the Flushing Faithful would likely issue a pardon to Bay for 2010.

Ike Davis, 1B: 89/28/124/83/0 - So... the stolen base numbers are accurate. Could Ike be that good? I think he could be BETTER. I mean, I think Ike has the power to lead the team in homers so that 28 could easily be eclipsed by something on the brighter side of 35. The other numbers reflect Ike's improved discipline at the plate, which is hard to deny.

Angel Pagan, CF: 46/7/39/59/26 - I have to believe that Angel is better than this, but at the same time... I can't predict EVERYONE to have a good year. So if I can get those big years I've already listed above, I'd suffer with a diminished Pagan... at least until we promote Captain Kirk.

Josh Thole, C: 22/0/50/29/0 - Another victim of a slow start, Thole has proven to still be a clutch hitter and is learning to adjust to pitchers now that he's a known quantity. I would imagine that he'll exceed these numbers easily even losing additional playing time to Paulino's bat.

Maximum Value

Different hitters are better suited for different spots in the lineup. As Terry Collins tries out various variations, I just wanted to see where the Mets might be MAXIMIZING the value of their players.

David Wright, 3B: Wright cannot lead off. He's a touch too strike-out prone to be a pure OBP guy. Though... if you look at him hitting second it's not so bad. He's fast and usually sees at least 3 pitches in an at-bat. Frankly, we all know that Wright is made for the 3rd spot. He's fast and hits a ton, but he's become as free swinging as a #4 hitter. This means that if not for Wright's legs... he'd probably be moved back to the #5 spot. (Max Value: 2nd/3rd/4th/5th)

Jose Reyes, SS: Reyes is a GREAT lead off hitter, but is that the "BEST" spot for him on the Mets? Well... yeah, it is. He could hit second, but nobody on the team is going to be better at moving on the bases and he's not the most disciplined swinger. Though I will say that Jose COULD be a #3 hitter (on the right team). Imagine if Boston could get Crawford and Ellsbury to hit. Carl and Jose hit similarly, if the Mets had Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury on the roster... yeah... I'd have to hit Reyes 3rd. (Max Value: 1st/3rd)

Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran's legs are not what they used to be but he's still not Ike Davis on the base-paths. Beltran can't lead off and his power and so-so average don't lend themselves to the #2 spot. You could still hit Carlos 3rd (The Mets might want to try it) and the 4th spot still works to utilize his mix of talents, but what about late in the order. What about putting Carlos BEHIND Bay and Davis? It doesn't hurt a ton to have Carlos bat 5th or 6th, but maximum value isn't there. (Max Value: 3rd/4th)

Ike Davis, 1B: Davis has the speed to NEVER hit above 4th in a lineup. That's okay because he's got the power and hitting skill to hit 4th or 5th. Hitting Davis any earlier cripples your speed on the base-paths and hitting him later than 6th wastes his power. I don't really think it matters WHERE among 4, 5 & 6 you put Ike, but I think you HAVE to put him there. (Max Value: 4th/5th/6th)

Jason Bay, LF: When Jason Bay returns we could potentially think of him as a mix of power and speed. It's not lead-off speed, but he can swipe a bag if he gets into the right situation. Bay, like Wright is a bit of a free swinger and a touch streaky. Unlike Wright, his speed doesn't force him to the front of the lineup. His power (as a Met) doesn't lend itself to the clean-up role either. Bay would fit nicely in most roles from #5-#7. (Max Value: 5th/6th/7th)

Angel Pagan, CF: Angel is mired in an AWFUL slump, but let us pretend he's the Angel we know and love. THAT Angel Pagan is designed to hit in the lead-off spot or 2nd in the lineup. He's got the speed and bat to make those roles work. Terry Collins keeps throwing Angel into the middle of the lineup... I don't see it. Angel is not a good #5/#6 hitter. He's got some power, but demoting him to that spot is dumb. If he's not hitting for average in the front of the lineup, put him in the 7th or 8th spot until he comes around. (Max Value: 1st/2nd)

Daniel Murphy, 2B: Murphy has SOME speed but can't lead-off. Daniel can hit 2nd but really... he's not a front of the lineup guy. Terry Collins moved Angel out of the 2-hole and has tried Murphy out there. The issue is that Murphy is FAR better suited to hitting 6th or 7th than Angel. He's more of an RBI hitter than an OBP hitter so it makes sense for Murphy to be there to protect the back of the core.

Josh Thole, C: Josh Thole proved yesterday that he could be a #2 hitter ala Paul LoDuca. He has patience and can slap singles and put wood on the bat when he needs to. He's not fast but he does have considerable value in the #2 hole. In fact, Thole's BEST value might be there. Though he doesn't hurt you hitting 7th or 8th. Hitting 7th or 8th he's merely an annoying slap hitter in the latter part of a lineup. (Max Value: 2nd/7th/8th)

Willie Harris, LF: I REALLY see Willie Harris as ONLY an alternate but if he's playing there is one spot he's clearly best suited for. Harris is an ideal #2 hitter. He looks at pitches and can hit with people on base. In fact if Harris could not hit second based on value, I'd probably bat the pitcher 8th and him 9th. (Max Value: 2nd)

Brad Emaus, 2B: Emaus is supposed to be an OBP machine. He's supposed to make good contact too. He's also supposed to be a better fielder than Daniel Murphy. Can you tell I'm not an Emaus fan? Anyway, Emaus if he hit as advertised would make sense hitting 2nd or 8th. in the 2-hole he can see extra pitches and get on base for the core of the lineup. In the 8th spot he should at least be good for clearing the pitchers spot. I'm pretty sold on the Mets returning Emaus to Toronto before the end of May. (Max Value: 2nd/8th)

Met Lineup vs. RHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
4. David Wright, 3B (R)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Met Lineup vs. LHP
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S)
5. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
6. Jason Bay, LF (R)
7. Josh Thole, C (L)
8. Brad Emaus, 2B (R)

Up This Week:

25 Other Things: 25 Things that might distract you from the foibles of the Met's 25 MLB players.

Generation K 2.0: Mejia, Harvey, Familia, Holt and others look to be what Isringhausen never was.

Bay It Ain't So: With Bay potentially back, let's start the micro-scope on his Met career.

Minority Report: Who has deflated my hopes and dreams?

I'm One Sick Puppy

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Know who said that? Albert Einstein. Think he was talking about the Mets and their fans? Probably not, he died in 1955. The definition makes a lot of sense for the Mets, because what could be more batty than expecting new things out of the same players? Ever hear: You can't teach an old dog new tricks? How about: You can't teach players who have played for 20+ years and reached the professional level to have sound fundamentals?

So, what? Am I saying that all Met fans are insane? You decide.

Mike Pelfrey will round into a front of the rotation pitcher

Mike Pelfrey is not an Ace. No, he's not. Mike Pelfrey is a major league middle of the rotation guy. I think that most people in baseball and even the Mets would agree. It's simply that the Mets had no "Ace" and anointed Pelfrey the best man left.

The issue with this is that Pelfrey is nearing his pay day. That is fine, but I worry about the label that the Mets have placed on their valuing of Pelfrey. He's not an Ace on 80% of teams... but on the Mets... Insanity: Mike Pelfrey deserves Ollie Perez money.

Bobby Parnell is the closer of the future

BP was responsible for an awful disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Well... actually... massive corporate corruption was responsible. Anyway, Bobby Parnell did not rupture and spill gallons of tar into the ocean, but he also didn't clamp down the role as setup man that he was expected to.

Take a look at this list: Duaner Sanchez, Heath Bell, Aaron Heilman and ... oh yeah... Jason Isringhausen. All of these guys convinced my insane Met Id (Read Freud Kids) that they were top relievers and capable of maybe someday closing. Sanchez had an accident, Bell was traded, Heilman imploded and Isringhausen was traded years before I really cared.

What does this tell us? The Mets cannot grow their own closers. They are perfectly capable of raising relievers and trading them before their greatest success, but they can't raise their own. Insanity: Bobby Parnell is more than a hard thrower.

Daniel Murphy's bat demands MLB playing time

Murph played half a glorious season as a surprising call-up who could play okay left field and get clutch hits. I loved Murph and got high on all the fumes of his hustle and go gettem attitude.

Murphy then displayed that he... could NOT play the outfield. Okay... that's alright, he could manage 1st base... except he doesn't have a ton of power and Met fans ranted and raved about how meek he made our lineup. Insanity: Murphy is more than an MLB bench player.

Jonathan Niese is an Ace in the making

My name is Phlavio Phega, and I thought that Niese was an Ace in the making...

Hi, Phlavio!

Anywho... Jonathan Niese is NOT a bad pitcher. I'd go as far as to say he could be a GOOD pitcher. What I regret saying is that he was a TOP pitcher. Sorry. My bad. Insanity: Projecting vast improvements in a starters second season.

See... I thought ALL of those things at one point or another. I don't think all of them now, though. Well...

• I do think that Bobby Parnell could still be a good setup guy...
• and Murphy's bat should be pretty sweet at second...
• and Niese showed signs last night (when Tulowitzki wasn't up)...
• Maybe...

Face it, I'm sick. I'm a Met fan, it's part of the package deal.

Brad Needs To Grow Eyes In Back Of Head

Brad Emaus is OFFICIALLY the starting second baseman for the Mets. It wasn't my ideal candidate... he's not capable of turning double plays so good... but it was probably the second most desirable option I had going into the season. However... Brad may have won the job, but the Mets aren't exactly going to give him a lot of rope to hang himself with.

Brad Emaus - Known for his good eye and larger than average frame (for a 2B) Emaus projects to be a fine hitter. Considering options... having Emaus and Thole at the back of your lineup is pretty good. Both players hit for contact and will force pitchers to work. Emaus and Thole HAVE to be better at driving in runners than say... Luis Castillo, who in the best of situations was not the guy you wanted with runners in scoring position.

Daniel Murphy - Sitting on the bench with a glove made of stone, Daniel Murphy represents a left handed hitting option. He is a better overall hitter than Emaus (more prone to K and less to BB) but he can't TRULY field the position. What happens if Emaus doesn't hit for a month and Murphy looks like a beast off the bench? Can Terry Collins resist throwing Murphy out there to start? Can he handle the position well enough for Met fans to forgive the inevitable extra outs he'd be giving teams?

Justin Turner - Turner is the most likely person to be promoted, if Emaus failed. He can play the position pretty well and isn't a useless hitter. He will not be the PHENOMENAL hitter we saw in AAA last year, but he could probably hold his own in the bottom third of an NL lineup. While Turner is the most likely name you'll hear bandied about... he's the least exciting. There is a low ceiling on Turner and that isn't the end of the world but it also isn't something to write home about.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada is going to be playing SS in AAA preparing to compete to play SS in 2012. But... let us say that Reyes is not going to leave town. Then we no longer need Tejada at short. If he isn't needed there, then the Mets know his defense is up to snuff. His hitting... well... I'm less pessimistic than I was pre-spring. He hits well... situation-ally, meaning he can advance the runner and drive in runners in scoring position. He also can slap a single. What I NEED to see Ruben do, is swipe a bag. When he can do that, he's a major league starter and I put him pretty high in the mix.

Jordany Valdespin - For those of you who refuse to learn this name... be ready for next spring when he's the lead candidate to replace Reyes. Faster and more powerful than Tejada with a solid glove, he seems like he'd be ready RIGHT NOW to compete for that job that Emaus just won. There is a problem though... Valdespin can't take walks. Emaus is the OBP guy and that is what Alderson and his cronies are looking for. Jordany is probably going to be bumped down to AA by the sheer number of middle infielders the Mets have but he could easily make that jump to the majors if he gets hot.

Reese Havens - Wait a second, Reese Havens is supposed to be the Met's top 2B prospect... why is he down here? Well... while Havens spent last season mainly in recovery... Others stepped up their games. Reese is still a hitting machine who might be an ALL-STAR 2B in time, but the Mets want to wait and see. He is going to need to crush AA/AAA pitching for over a month to force this new regime to bring him up as early as May or June. I would imagine that Reese will get a chance to cut his teeth in 2011 but won't get a true shot at the lineup until 2012.

Joshua Satin - The man with the glorious eyebrows that you see to the left is Joshua Satin. A man without a position, who spends a lot of time DH-ing. He has played 2B, 1B and OF in recent years. He's also steadily risen through the ranks and displayed a good ability to hit. HOWEVER... I think I'm not alone in seeing Mr. Satin as another Daniel Murphy. A man who can be on the bench and play multiple roles but not someone who is going to be a major league starter anywhere.

Wally Backman/Tim Teufel - If all else fails... The Mets have a few second basemen in the minors that I haven't yet mentioned. These are veterans with proven success in Met uniform. They might be a little old, slow and surly, but I think that it's good to put them on the radar too... just in case.

Rat Races

We're back to look again at the various races this spring. While I've been forced to evacuate my home to avoid an impending flood and could dwell on the negative of life. I have baseball to distract and entertain me.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely In:

Willie Harris - I listed Hairston and Paulino as locks last week and held off of Harris. I can't keep doing that. Collins has said that Harris will make the team, he's a defensive OF and he's a lefty. The trifecta.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Collins hasn't yet gotten to see Murphy complete a DP. That has left Murphy a tick behind Castillo in the 2B race but Murphy OWNS a spot on the bench if he doesn't win the job as a starting player.

Chin-Lung Hu - Hu is playing well enough to appease me. I still want to see Turner play SS because he's definitely the better hitter. I've just resigned myself to the Japanese Ray Ordonezbacking up the middle infield.

Nick Evans - Evans has certainly made the case for himself to make the team. He's cooling off little but he's still turned out an overall good spring and might be in the discussion for the bench or perhaps as Beltran's temp. (Hairston has the edge on that though)

Lucas Duda - Boy do the Mets REALLY want to keep him with the big club. He's hit REALLY well and is definitely in the discussion for being Beltran's temporary replacement. Duda will be with the Mets in 2011 but might not be right out of camp.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Getting the moniker of E-Miss is not helping him. Castillo playing a little better isn't either. Mets might need to be willing to let this Rule 5 pick go back to Canada.

The Rotation:

Stock Up:

Dillon Gee - Gee had a nearly perfect outing yesterday. That ups his stock... but he's still looking at being the #6 option.

Stock Down:

Chris Capuano - Chris has a rougher looking outing this week. I think it wasn't bad enough to make him fall from the lead for the 5th starter but with Capuano having a bad outing and Gee having a good one, Chris is on notice.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is the new LOOGY. Tankerseley has failed to impress and O'Connor and Misch aren't as good. I think that battle is over.

Stock Up:

Manny Accosta - I think he's back to one of the more likely names.

Jason Isringhausen - I think just about everyone wants to see Izzy succeed and return to the Mets in 2011.

Stock Down:

Ryota Iggarashi - He's looking like his power pitching is improved but that he's still a bit rough around the edges. He'd be well served by going to AAA and honing.

Taylor Buchholz - I like him but he's just got control issues that worry me. I don't know if I'm fully confident in him. I also don't know if I'd take Taylor over Pedro Beato, Manny Accosta or Jason Isringhausen.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Luis Castillo - Luis Castillo is heating up and is the leading candidate for the starting job... BECAUSE HE'S EARNING IT. I still don't see him winning it because I don't think he gives the Mets the best chance of winning. It just seems to me, that if he CAN hit around .300 and get on base often, he'll be fine even with his occasional sloppy fielding.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been hitting the ball well this spring. He just hasn't gotten the chance to prove he can field. I think that Collins WANTS Murphy to win the job. I think Alderson is willing to drop Castillo if he agrees that Murphy deserves it. We just need to hope that Murphy shows a good glove when that opportunity finally comes.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is going to the minors. Not even a question. He's just had a good enough spring that he has entered the discussion for the future. I wonder if the Mets would see Valdespin as a Reyes replacement... OR... maybe Havens has competition for the 2012 starting 2B job.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Brad has fallen off the charts in terms of expectations. I think he might even be looking up at Justin Turner in the 2B race.

Justin Turner - Turner has proven he can field 2B but he hasn't hit the ball enough to impress and to win the job he needed to hit A LOT.

Phlavio's 25

Lineup: 8

1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)

2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)

3. David Wright, 3B (R)

4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S) [Ike Davis, 1B (L)]

5. Ike Davis, 1B (L) [Jason Bay, LF (R)]

6. Jason Bay, LF (R) [Lucas Duda, RF (L)]

7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)

8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Bench: 5

1. Ronny Paulino, C (R)

2. Scott Hairston, OF (R)

3. Willie Harris, OF (L)

4. Chin-Lung Hu, IF (R)

5. Nick Evans, 1B/OF (R)

Rotation: 5

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

4. Chris Young, SP (R)

5. Chris Capuano, SP (L)

Bullpen: 7

1. CL - Francisco Rodriguez, RP (R)

2. SU - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

3. MR - Manny Accosta, RP (R)

4. MR - Jason Isringhausen, RP (R)

5. MR - Pedro Beato, RP (R)

6. LOOGY - Tim Byrdak, RP (L)

7. LRP - Pat Misch, RP (L)

Over/Under:

If you play fantasy baseball, and I'd bet that if you are reading this, your either my mother... or you do, then you know that Yahoo and ESPN and CBS and every other fantasy sports web-site will predict before the season how players will do. These predictions come courtesy of ESPN.com and reflect the expert opinions of their fantasy gurus. Today's article is a diversion into where I see the Mets finishing... in relation to their predictions.

Jose Reyes, SS (S):

• Avg: .286 (Even)
  
• Slg: .441 (Even)
• Runs: 86 (Over)
  
• HRs: 12 (Under)
• RBIs: 56 (Even)
• BBs: 42 (Over... I hope)
• SBs: 36 (Over)

Jose's numbers from ESPN reflect him not having a healthy season. That might be fair but I think that we should be basing the predictions on Jose being healthy as he seems to be that now. His HR totals should not be above 10 if he's still a Met for the full season but at the same time, Jose can and will steal more than 36 bags. If he's traded... all of these stats change... but... I probably then have to hate him.

Angel Pagan, CF (S):

• Avg: .283 (Even)
• Slg: .417 (Even)
  
• Runs: 76 (Over)
• HRs: 9 (Over)
  
• RBIs: 62 (Over)
• BBs: 40 (Even)
  
• SBs: 30 (Under)

Angel Pagan is predicted to have an okay year but I get confused when his power numbers are lower than Reyes and his production of Runs and RBIs falls short of Jason Bay. I would also say that hitting 2nd all year would likely cut his freedom on the bases as the Mets don't want to take the bats away from Wright, Beltran, Davis and Bay with a caught stealing.

David Wright, 3B (R):

• Avg: .294 (Over)
• Slg: .517 (Even)
• Runs: 95 (Over)
• HRs: 25 (Over)
• RBIs: 100 (Over)
• BBs: 76 (Even)
• SBs: 19 (Even)

Prior to the injury plagued seasons of Beltran and Reyes and the move to Citi-Field, David Wright was a defacto top 10 fantasy pick. He's still somewhere in the top 20 but he's definitely dropped. The average has been hurt, but as I've written before, that is partially due to a lack of production and support (Beltran hasn't exactly been there to back him up so often.) The HR totals are predicted to drop and the Runs and RBIs stay in the good but not GREAT range and I disagree. If Beltran and Reyes are healthy and Bay is some version of what he USED to be, Wright has a BIG year.

Carlos Beltran, RF (S):

• Avg: .276 (Under)
• Slg: .469 (Over)
• Runs: 63 (Even)
• HRs: 18 (Over)
• RBIs: 68 (Over)
• BBs: 64 (Even)
• SBs: 10 (Under)

Say what you will about Beltran's knees. When he's been healthy... he hits. Though a .276 average seems a bit high. He's much more of a .250-.260 hitter. However hitting (all year) in the middle of the Mets order should net Carlos more than 68 RBIs as he's likely to hit closer to 25-30 HRs if he's healthy. HOWEVER... face facts and learn that Carlos Beltran will never reach double digit SBs again.

Ike Davis, 1B (L):

• Avg: .272 (Even)
• Slg: .473 (Over)
• Runs: 74 (Even)
• HRs: 22 (Over)
• RBIs: 75 (Over)
• BBs: 78 (Even)
• SBs: 2 (Even)

ESPN bothers me when I look at Ike Davis. They take his 2010 numbers and replicate them for a full season and call it a prediction. This assumes that Ike Davis has REACHED his ceiling after 1 year. It doesn't touch on the fact that he's a 30 HR threat or that he's going to be hitting behind Wright and Beltran (maybe Bay) and the fact he was a consistent producer in his ROOKIE year.

Jason Bay, LF (R):

• Avg: .268 (Even)
• Slg: .454 (Even)
• Runs: 85 (Even)
• HRs: 19 (Even)
• RBIs: 84 (Even)
• BBs: 74 (Even)
• SBs: 12 (Even)

If Bay is healthy and hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup all year... these numbers look accurate. This also assumes his 2010 was an aberration and that the Mets other players stay healthy. Most Met fans will gladly take these numbers from Jason Bay in his second year. Anything is better than what he did (while healthy) in 2010.

Daniel Murphy, 2B (L):

• Avg: .280 (Even)
• Slg: .445 (Even)
• Runs: 37 (Over)
• HRs: 7 (Over)
• RBIs: 38 (Over)
• BBs: 21 (Over)
• SBs: 4 (Even)

At first glance you might think I differ GREATLY with ESPN. That isn't totally true. We differ on ONE key factor. I see Murphy as the starting second baseman, and they see him on the bench. On the bench, their numbers are accurate but over a full season you can probably multiply a lot of those numbers by 2... even if he's platooning.

Josh Thole, C (L):

• Avg: .270 (Even)
• Slg: .382 (Even)
• Runs: 36 (Over)
• HRs: 5 (Even)
• RBIs: 36 (Over)
• BBs: 35 (Over)
• SBs: 2 (Over)

ESPN predicts that Thole and Paulino will be an even split. I can't agree less. Thole is a lefty and that will get him into more games alone. Add that Thole is the "Catcher of the Future" and that he hits for a higher average and is more consistent and I think we all know who is getting the lion's share of the playing time. The other issue I see is that ESPN over-looks the fact that Thole can run... for a catcher. He's not going to steal bases because of his speed, but because he has enough speed to take advantage of sloppy play.

Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

• ERA: 4.00 (Under)
• Whip: 1.39 (Even)
• BBs: 68 (Even)
• Ws: 13 (Even)
• Ks: 113 (Even)
• IP: 207 (Even)

ESPN is pretty accurate with Big Pelf. I'm not sure if anyone in America looks at Mike and sees an Ace. I do see a pitcher who can keep you in games and maybe be looked at as a #3 pitcher. Even so... I don't see Pelfrey having a 20 win season for the Mets in 2011 and those 13 wins aren't a sure thing either.

Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

• ERA: 4.36 (Under)
• Whip: 1.46 (Under)
• BBs: 69 (Even)
• Ws: 11 (Over)
• Ks: 153 (Even)
• IP: 190 (Over)

Niese is the closest thing to an Ace that the Mets have this season. He can get K's at a decent clip and has shown the ability to be dominant. That ERA well North of 4.00 is a bit extreme from Jon as it seems ESPN predicts he should be getting worse with more time in the pros. I guess they view his tired arm issues as a sign he wasn't that good instead of a sign he'd thrown more innings then he had been used to.

R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.89 (Even)
• Whip: 1.30 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 10 (Over)
• Ks: 107 (Over)
• IP: 199 (Over)

Really ESPN? If there is one thing I've heard about knuckle-ballers it's that their arms get tired. ESPN doesn't see Dickey as the work-horse I believe he will be. He's not an Ace, nobody is saying that. He is a pitcher who can pitch deep into games. Also... if that slow knuckler is working that means he can be a fastball/change-up pitcher... except his balls dance a WHOLE lot more. If he can do that... the K's will follow.

Chris Young, SP (R)

• ERA: 3.88 (Even)
• Whip: 1.31 (Even)
• BBs: 53 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Even)
• Ks: 77 (Even)
• IP: 102 (Even)

Now, I could take issue with Young's numbers being poor, but I can't expect ESPN to predict that Chris Young will pitch 200 innings. His arm just hasn't been that healthy. However, you can probably take this half-year estimate and do the math to come up with what his numbers would be as he reaches 150... 180 innings pitched. I like Young. It's hard not to. I'm hoping that he can just stay healthy.

Chris Capuano, SP (L)

• ERA: 3.81 (Over)
• Whip: 1.26 (Over)
• BBs: 23 (Even)
• Ws: 5 (Over)
• Ks: 64 (Even)
• IP: 85 (Even)

It seems that ESPN predicts Capuano AND Gee will both win that 5th starter job. I'll forgive them because it lets me not put Gee here. Capuano looks like the best option for 5th starter right now. He isn't great but he'll keep us in games. The thing with ESPN is that they adjusted his ERA and Whip to factor Capuano ALSO relieving. The more he starts... the higher the ERA and Whip. When Santana comes back, Chris moves to the bullpen or the Mets will simply have other injured pitchers for him to replace.

Johan Santana, SP (L)*

• ERA: 3.13 (Over)
• Whip: 1.25 (Even)
• BBs: 33 (Even)
• Ws: 7 (Over)
• Ks: 91 (Even)
• IP: 118 (Even)

Johan Santana will not pitch for the Mets until June (at the earliest) but he COULD get to 118 innings if he's back then. I'll point out that missing spring training and entering the year late, will not be the BEST FRIEND of his ERA but at the same time... if he getss those 118 innings, I think he'll get a few more wins. It all evens out.

I'm excited about the Mets season, even if it isn't one where my expectations are super high. I think that Collins and Alderson have the team on the right foot and if Santa's listening... maybe I even get new owners who know how to leave baseball to the baseball people.