Rat Races

We're back to look again at the various races this spring. While I've been forced to evacuate my home to avoid an impending flood and could dwell on the negative of life. I have baseball to distract and entertain me.

The Bench:

Who's Definitely In:

Willie Harris - I listed Hairston and Paulino as locks last week and held off of Harris. I can't keep doing that. Collins has said that Harris will make the team, he's a defensive OF and he's a lefty. The trifecta.

Stock Up:

Daniel Murphy - Collins hasn't yet gotten to see Murphy complete a DP. That has left Murphy a tick behind Castillo in the 2B race but Murphy OWNS a spot on the bench if he doesn't win the job as a starting player.

Chin-Lung Hu - Hu is playing well enough to appease me. I still want to see Turner play SS because he's definitely the better hitter. I've just resigned myself to the Japanese Ray Ordonezbacking up the middle infield.

Nick Evans - Evans has certainly made the case for himself to make the team. He's cooling off little but he's still turned out an overall good spring and might be in the discussion for the bench or perhaps as Beltran's temp. (Hairston has the edge on that though)

Lucas Duda - Boy do the Mets REALLY want to keep him with the big club. He's hit REALLY well and is definitely in the discussion for being Beltran's temporary replacement. Duda will be with the Mets in 2011 but might not be right out of camp.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Getting the moniker of E-Miss is not helping him. Castillo playing a little better isn't either. Mets might need to be willing to let this Rule 5 pick go back to Canada.

The Rotation:

Stock Up:

Dillon Gee - Gee had a nearly perfect outing yesterday. That ups his stock... but he's still looking at being the #6 option.

Stock Down:

Chris Capuano - Chris has a rougher looking outing this week. I think it wasn't bad enough to make him fall from the lead for the 5th starter but with Capuano having a bad outing and Gee having a good one, Chris is on notice.

The Bullpen:

Who's Definitely In:

Tim Byrdak - Byrdak is the new LOOGY. Tankerseley has failed to impress and O'Connor and Misch aren't as good. I think that battle is over.

Stock Up:

Manny Accosta - I think he's back to one of the more likely names.

Jason Isringhausen - I think just about everyone wants to see Izzy succeed and return to the Mets in 2011.

Stock Down:

Ryota Iggarashi - He's looking like his power pitching is improved but that he's still a bit rough around the edges. He'd be well served by going to AAA and honing.

Taylor Buchholz - I like him but he's just got control issues that worry me. I don't know if I'm fully confident in him. I also don't know if I'd take Taylor over Pedro Beato, Manny Accosta or Jason Isringhausen.

Second Base:

Stock Up:

Luis Castillo - Luis Castillo is heating up and is the leading candidate for the starting job... BECAUSE HE'S EARNING IT. I still don't see him winning it because I don't think he gives the Mets the best chance of winning. It just seems to me, that if he CAN hit around .300 and get on base often, he'll be fine even with his occasional sloppy fielding.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy has been hitting the ball well this spring. He just hasn't gotten the chance to prove he can field. I think that Collins WANTS Murphy to win the job. I think Alderson is willing to drop Castillo if he agrees that Murphy deserves it. We just need to hope that Murphy shows a good glove when that opportunity finally comes.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is going to the minors. Not even a question. He's just had a good enough spring that he has entered the discussion for the future. I wonder if the Mets would see Valdespin as a Reyes replacement... OR... maybe Havens has competition for the 2012 starting 2B job.

Stock Down:

Brad Emaus - Brad has fallen off the charts in terms of expectations. I think he might even be looking up at Justin Turner in the 2B race.

Justin Turner - Turner has proven he can field 2B but he hasn't hit the ball enough to impress and to win the job he needed to hit A LOT.

Phlavio's 25

Lineup: 8

1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)

2. Angel Pagan, CF (S)

3. David Wright, 3B (R)

4. Carlos Beltran, RF (S) [Ike Davis, 1B (L)]

5. Ike Davis, 1B (L) [Jason Bay, LF (R)]

6. Jason Bay, LF (R) [Lucas Duda, RF (L)]

7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)

8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Bench: 5

1. Ronny Paulino, C (R)

2. Scott Hairston, OF (R)

3. Willie Harris, OF (L)

4. Chin-Lung Hu, IF (R)

5. Nick Evans, 1B/OF (R)

Rotation: 5

1. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R)

2. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)

4. Chris Young, SP (R)

5. Chris Capuano, SP (L)

Bullpen: 7

1. CL - Francisco Rodriguez, RP (R)

2. SU - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)

3. MR - Manny Accosta, RP (R)

4. MR - Jason Isringhausen, RP (R)

5. MR - Pedro Beato, RP (R)

6. LOOGY - Tim Byrdak, RP (L)

7. LRP - Pat Misch, RP (L)

Prospectin' 2:

Taking another look at the "minor-league" players who are making a splash in camp. I'm focusing on the positives because with a possible flood coming towards my house for the second year in a row. I think looking at the good is warranted.

Matt Den Dekker - Age 23 - Position CF - A+/AA: Den Dekker has not had enough chances this spring to do anything meaningful. He is 2 for 3 in his EXTREMELY limited at-bats, but 3 ABs doesn't prove anything. Matt will likely wind up in Port St. Lucie or Binghamton (wherever they need a CF).

Fernando Martinez - Age 22 - Position RF - AAA/MLB: Martinez has been a prospect for a LONG time. HOWEVER, he's 22 and in the most advanced level of the minors and if you've watched this spring... he's hitting. Through 17 at-bats he's hitting an absurd .412 and slugging a robust .706. What ACTUALLY excites me is this little ratio 3 : 4. (3 Walks to 4 K's) THAT is a good sign and a sign that makes me believe that Fernando WILL replace Beltran in the OF either after this season, a trade or an injury. Health is still a major and legitimate concern.

Ruben Tejada - Age 21 - Position SS/2B - AAA/MLB: Tejada has hit well this spring. Evidenced by his 3 RBIs, he's also been clutch. His defense is great and if he can hit over .275 he's a major league quality middle infielder but unless he learns to swipe a bag... I refuse to be excited. Ruben will be in AAA unless he beats Murphy, Emaus, Castillo and Turner for the starting 2B job.

Nick Evans - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: Evans has hit his way from irrelevant to problematic. It's a good thing AND a bad thing. Evans is now looking like he deserves a roll on the major league club. On top of this he has no options left. The issue is going to be the Mets acquisition of Scott Hairston and Willie Harris. Evans just doesn't fit onto a 5 man bench. Collins could run with a 6 man bench, but there are few enough bullpen spots.

Lucas Duda - Age 25 - Position 1B/LF - AAA/MLB: If Duda or Evans could play CF the Mets would not have signed Harris and Hairston. Duda deserves a spot on the bench as the lefty power bat but he has options and will go to AAA.

Daniel Murphy - Age 25 (for now) - Position 1B/3B/2B: This spring Murphy has shown he can still hit and that he's a capable 3B. He has played fine at 2B but has yet to be challenged. When he finally gets that double-play opportunity... I hope it goes well.

Pat Misch - Age 29 - Position SP/RP - AAA/MLB: Misch is better than he's shown but not excessively so. He gives up too many hits but doesn't walk many. He's also miles ahead of Dillon Gee right now.

Prospectin'

I just wanted to take a moment to talk about some of the prospects and pseudo-prospects at camp that might make an impact on the team in the future. I'll be repeating the post on a semi-weekly basis.

Nick Evans - Evans had a hit and has come across as a big positive for the Mets thus far. The problem being that he's out of options and the Mets already have Hu, Emaus, Hairston, Paulino and Harris penciled into the bench. Evans might make himself a trade candidate by playing well but I have a hard time seeing the Mets losing Emaus to keep him.

Fernando Martinez - Martinez had a good day at the plate but was a DH. As long as he's playing I won't complain. Martinez stands a good chance of being a mid-season call-up should Bay or Beltran need to miss an extended time.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy looked pretty good and must have made Terry Collins look up when he followed up a Castillo gaffe inning with a ground-rule double. How about giving Murph or Emaus a start tomorrow?

Mike Nickeas - Nickeas has impressed me with his glove. He's got a strong arm and he also gunned out a runner. Nickeas will probably sit in AAA in case Thole or Paulino are hurt.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada has a great glove and knows how to use it both from SS and 2B but his bat is not presumably ready. Not so fast... Terry Collins thinks Ruben is back into the starting 2B discussion. It's a long-shot but the hitting looks much improved. For me to get excited I need him to prove he can steal 20+ bases.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is a lefty bat with reasonably good contact and a little speed and power. He was an un-impressive BPAB (Bench Player At Best) until the AFL came along and he turned some heads. He K's like he's a power hitter and that can't continue if he's going to actually be good enough to become a MLB starter.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk is a player that coaches love... which is either something that Kirk should worry about in the showers or... he's simply a guy who follows instruction. Either way Kirk needs to be on your radar because he's very much in the mix for the Post-Beltran Mets.

Lucas Duda - Duda is a large man who hits the ball. He's like Chris Carter minus the complete insanity factor (Yes... I miss Animal too) but Duda will probably NOT make the Mets. The issue is that Duda plays LF and 1B and the Mets wanted bench OFs who could do more. Enter Hairston and Harris and exit Duda. 2012 he will at least be our big lefty on the bench.

Justin Turner - Turner is not a GREAT fielder but he is the kind of bench player that you pay for. He hits and can play all of the IF positions.

Brad Emaus - Emaus is a high OBP IF with a powerful build that doesn't lend itself to graceful fielding. Unlike Murphy he's played 2B more and can handle the position adequately. He should make the team if only because the Mets have to give him back if he doesn't.

Wilfredo Tovar - Wilmer Flores gets more buzz as he's heads and tails the better hitter, but Tovar might be the best overall SS in the system. Great fielding and a pretty good bat. The issue is that Tovar will likely be at the same level as Flores so... unless or until Wilmer moves to another position he's not going to get enough playing time.

Pedro Beato - Beato is the other rule 5 pick and I've seen him pitch. He's got a great arm. The question is, will he be worth the roster spot? I'm saying yes right now.

Jenrry Mejia - 99.999% chance Mejia goes to AAA 99.999% chance Mejia is on the MLB club by this fall.

Matt Harvey - Mets top pick is not SUPER far from the majors but, while I'd like to see him pitch to MLB players I predict he starts in Port St. Lucie.

Spring Training Preview: The Battle for Bench

What could be more thrilling?

The battle to be one of 5 players selected to the 2011 New York Mets bench. A team that is expected by many to finish fourth in their division, sell off their stars and sell off their team. WOO! Who is going to be good enough to NOT be one of their 8 starting position players?

Above is a lovely graphic I put together (stealing graphics from MLB.com etc...) which will allow the average person to keep track. As names are eliminated I'll be placing a red X over their picture.

Ronny Paulino - C - 30:
Paulino isn't REALLY fighting for a bench spot. He's got a spot on the roster. HOWEVER, his face might be replaced by Josh Thole's if he has the better spring training. The reality is... Thole is a lefty and most pitchers are righties... so Paulino will likely not be the #1 catcher.
Red X Chances: 1%

Luis Castillo - 2B - 36:
Castillo IS owed $6,000,000.00 which is $5,999,995.00 more then I have in my wallet right now. He's also is a patient hitter who knows the game and can still field his position. The problem? Luis cannot field ANY other position. He also has no power and only REALLY hits well from one side of the plate.
Red X Chances: 78%

Scott Hairston - OF/1B - 31:
Scott is REALLY a corner OF but in a pinch he can man CF. I just wouldn't make a habit of it. He has become known as a timely hitter who makes the most of his ABs. He doesn't necessarily have great contact or power but I'd have some confidence in him being smart with a late inning AB in a close game.
Red X Chances: 11%

Daniel Murphy - 1B/2B/3B/LF - 26:
There are few situations in which Murphy does not make the team. One being Luis Castillo being the starter and Brad Emaus the backup. However as long as Murphy can field the position odds say that he'll be part of the solution to the 2B dilemma and at least have a role on the bench. Now... he is actually likely to win the starting job right now... so maybe I'll make him a blue and orange X or something.
Red X Chances: 18%

Willie Harris - Util - 33:
Willie can play all three OF positions, 3B, SS, and 2B and he has some speed. He's likely to make the team... even if I don't want him to. Add to this he's a lefty bat and has a little pop and he makes sense. So... why do I not want him? I want Duda... that's why. So I'm irrational and like certain players even if they fill less of a role.
Red X Chances: 16%

Justin Turner - IF - 27:
Turner has a lot against him. He and Emaus are both righties. So only one will make the team (probably) and Emaus would have to be let go if he didn't. Turner can simply be moved to AAA. What Turner DOES have going for him is the ability to play SS. Now... he's not a whiz kid at SS. However he can play the position and Murphy/Emaus/Castillo cannot. So... there is an outside chance that Turner loses out on the backup 2B job and wins the backup SS job over HU... but not a GOOD chance.
Red X Chances: 84%

Brad Emaus - 2B/3B/1B - 25:
Brad Emaus was a Rule 5 pick. That means he has to stay with the MLB club all year or be sold back to Toronto. Emaus has a GREAT eye and makes good contact with some power. He's not a GREAT fielder, but he's a smart player and can handle 2B and 3B adequately. If Castillo or Murphy with the starting job this spring... he might be the favorite for the bench role. Or... HE might win the starting job.
Red X Chances: 23%

Chin-Lung Hu - SS/2B - 27:
What does Hu bring to the table? Defense, defense, defense, defense and a unique name. What doesn't he bring? Hitting. 3 years ago a friend of mine pointed Hu out to me as a potentially big prospect but... that hasn't panned out and likely won't. Hu is the favorite to backup for Jose Reyes but as I will say until the day he's cut... Turner is the better choice!
Red X Chances: 31%

Lucas Duda - LF/RF/1B - 25:
Duda is going to AAA. I see it, you see it, the whole world sees it. Not that it's the wrong move but I don't see what Duda has left to learn. He's not going to become a better fielder. He's already a fine hitter. He will likely never be quite a starter... but we have the more positionally flexible Hairston and Harris and they make more sense.
Red X Chances: 93%

Nick Evans - LF/RF/3B/1B - 25:
Evans got a BIG demotion last year and made up for it with a big year. This season the Mets... still don't have room for him. Scott Hairston is sitting above Evans for that bench role and Emaus and Turner likely edge him out of the backup IF roles. I do think he'll be up in 2011 but not for most of the season.
Red X Chances: 86%

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.