Minor Troubles

If you want some good news on the Met farm you should look at one of these players: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Chris Schwinden, Joshua Satin, Jordany Valdespin, Pedro Zapata, Matt Den Dekker, Juan Lagares, Darin Gorski, Cory Vaughn, Robbie Shields, Gregory Peavey, Erik Goeddel or Chase Huchingson. Today's report is not about all the good or even the pretty good or okay. I'm feeling negative vibes and want to focus on some of the negative story lines.

AAA:

Nobody is really left in AAA and the two that are, are playing well (Schwinden and Nieuwenhuis). The real negative is the injuries. One to Zach Lutz and one to Lucas Duda. Both talented hitters with a future on a big league bench, this season has not been kind.

AA:

Binghamton has hit a bump in the road for pretty much ALL of their pitchers. Cohoon has been hittable, Moore has been crush-able, Familia has been human and Carson too. The biggest blip was for Brad Holt who had re-discovered his control this season. The glitch is that he lost it BIG TIME. His most recent outing was a return to good but I no longer see his promotion to AAA being a sure thing for 2011. Hitting-wise, the best hitters are not in AA but Eric Campbell is much better than he's shown this season. Some good news, Havens should be back soon... though with his arrival Satin SHOULD be moving to AAA.

A+:

Caesar Puello and Wilmer Flores have both looked like stars this season. Then there are times when they don't. Both are K-ing too much and walking to little. Puello not running enough and Flores' poor power start both don't set my heart a-twitter. Even Jefry Marte has cooled substantially. Note, he's never been close to this good, so anything more would be gravy. A big blip are the once GAUDY stats for Matt Harvey. Since April 28th he's been VERY human and no longer looks like a fast-track player. That's the way things go.

A:

I look at this team's players and see a team who should be killing the opponents. Darrell Cecilliani, Cory Vaugn, Aderlin Rodriguez, Robbie Shields, Wilfredo Tovar and Javier Rodriguez, this team should hit. Sadly only Cory and Robbie got that memo. Ceciliani was hurt but has not bee sharp since coming back, Aderlin has power but lacks contact, Tovar and Rodriguez just seem lost.

Spending $60 Million

With $68.3 Mil plus probably $10-15 Mil in smaller contracts and arbitration the Mets have between $36.7-41.7 Mil to spend. The goal is to keep their payroll beneath $120 Mil. That couldn't be that hard. What would that look like?

Free Agent Targets:

Jose Reyes, SS (29) - Jose is already popular with Met fans. Likes where he's living and is the best player available to fill the vacancy at SS. Matt Cerrone has said before that beyond Reyes, who else would the Mets be able to go after? The key will be Length and salary. I'm not going to ask for a Home Team discount from Reyes for size but I'm going to hold my offer to 5 years. (5 Years, $70 Mil: $10M, $12M, $15M, $16M, $17M)

C.J. Wilson, SP (31) - Wilson may not be the most exciting name out their but he'd be gifted the benefit of Citi Field and be joining a rotation that would include Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jonathan Niese. He's not going to need to be an Ace, just a #3 pitcher. With the weaker pitching class hitting free agency I know that his price will be inflated but pitching is NEEDED. (3 Years, $27 Mil: $9M, $9M, $9M)

Jonathan Papelbon, RP (31) - Mets will need a closer and are the only "Big Market" team who is likely to pay for one. Even so, I don't think the Mets throw K-Rod money at a closer again no matter what. Still, the Mets need to throw a good amount of money for a better closer like Jonathan. (3 Years, $30 Mil: $8M, $10M, $12M)

George Sherrill, RP (35) - Nothing fancy, but nothing fancy is necessary. The Mets need a lefty and Sherrill is probably the best lefty reliever available for 2012. He could probably slot in as a third setup man on the staff but I'll leave him in the ranks of the middle relievers. The question is how big a contract can you give an aging lefty reliever? (2 Years, $6 Mil: $3M, $3M)

Javier Lopez, RP (34) - Here is another big move. I'm looking at signing TWO lefty relievers. Why? Well, because the Mets have been handicapped for too long by not having enough lefties in their bullpen. Most teams have 2-3 lefties to spot through a game to make the matchups favor them. The Mets need to run Tim Byrdak out there for 3 batters because they only have the one lefty. (I know O'Connor is on the team now, but do you count him? I don't.) (3 Years, $7 Mil: $3M, $2M, $2M)

From The Minors:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CL (L) - Captain Kirk is tearing up AAA and looking like he might replace Angel Pagan sooner than later. He's got SOME power and SOME speed but he's not Reyes or Davis. He looks like a 15 HR, 20 SB player who is a good fielder and solid all-around player. He projects as more of a corner OF with his speed but between he and Fernando Martinez both being fringe CF guys I think the OF defense won't suffer. Plus Angel moves back to the bench as the 4th OF guy.

Fernando Martinez, RF (L) - The forever prospect gets his legit shot at making the team. Because I'm the one writing this I'm going to say that he does succeed and in the spring both he and Nieuwenhuis push Angel Pagan into a reserve role. Fernando's power and production may not be the 30 HR range that I used to see... but... it could easily be above 20 and who knows how high from there.

Matt Harvey, SP (R) - Matt Harvey is still pitching in Port St. Lucie. Why am I projecting him into the starting rotation? With Mejia's injury and the extremely weak starting pitching market for 2012 Harvey has a shot to make the rotation next spring. It will be a fair competition between he, Cohoon and a few others to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Notice that I've cut ties with Mike Pelfrey before the season.

Mark Cohoon, SP (L) - Cohoon loses the battle with Harvey for a spot in the rotation but the finesse lefty is reliable enough to give a long relief job and a third lefty arm to the bullpen. Cohoon's style is well suited to long-relief as he should never be walking the ballpark and letting the game get out of hand (like Ollie Perez might. Cohoon could look to replace Dickey in 2013, though I give that nod to Jenrry Mejia.

Lineup: 8
1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Jason Bay, LF (R)
6. Fernando Martinez, RF (L)
7. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)

Rotation: 5
1. Johan Santana, SP (L)
2. R.A. Dickey, SP (R)
3. C.J. Wilson, SP (L)
4. Jonathan Niese, SP (L)
5. Matt Harvey, SP (R)
Bullpen: 7
CL - Jonathan Papelbon, RP (R)
SU - Taylor Buchholz, RP (R)
SU - Pedro Beato, RP (R)
MR - Bobby Parnell, RP (R)
MR - Javier Lopez, RP (L) MR - George Sherrill, RP (L)
LR - Mark Cohoon, SP (L)

Bench: 5
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Angel Pagan, OF (S)
Lucas Duda, OF/1B (L)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Nick Evans, OF/1B/3B (R)

2012 Payroll: $113.7 Mil

Uh... did you say 'yutes'?

Jenrry Mejia, 22: Today's Minor League report starts with the mention of the injury to Jenrry Mejia. You already know about what happened and that he needs Tommy John surgery. You've even heard moronic speculation that he'll now be magically relegated to the bullpen. I can only tell you that the Mets could ill afford to have their top pitching prospect hit this type of road block. Today's post will instead focus on the pitchers who are HEALTHY in the Met minors.

Chris Schwinden, 25: Schwinden is the only starting pitcher still in AAA who has pitched remotely well. There is little to nothing to fault him on his first 3 starts but his fourth outing was shaky and it may be that AAA is adjusting to Schwinden. Shcwinden is a control pitcher who relies on using the strike zone to make up for a low 90's fastball. His secondary offerings include a slider and a changeup. He's likely not more than a reserve starter or long reliever.

Mark Cohoon, 24: Again, three GREAT starts and then things start to un-ravel. Cohoon will look to rebound after his 5 ER outing on May 1st. Again... Cohoon has nothing to over-power anyone. His fastball sitting in the high 80s. His secondary pitches (curveball and changeup) are both usable pitches and he projects as a useful back of the rotation starter with the added bonus of being a lefty. He's probably going to be going up to AAA as it seems the organization is going to be conservative. He should be in the majors in 2011 if he's needed.

Brandon Moore, 25: I talked about Moore a lot last year. He was VERY good in Savanah, okay in Port St. Lucie and TERRIBLE in AA. Again in AA he's proving to be up to the challenge there. The term "Junk-Baller" might be used for Moore who throws a middle 80s fastball, with a variety of off-speed pitches that include a slurve. He's not a top prospect or someone who people imagine will make a large impact in the majors but he could come in and be a good reliever against fastball hitters.

Bradley Holt, 25: Brad's 2008 was GREAT. His 2009... feh. His 2010 was JUST bad. His 2011... well it's actually pretty nice all things being equal. He's got his velocity back up and he's keeping people off base. His 4th start (notice a trend?) was poor and the opponents hit .462 against him that game. OVERALL... he's held the enemy to a .192 AVG. That is pretty sweet. It was once thought that Holt could be a front of the rotation guy. I think he could still be a #3 or #4 pitcher in the MLB. I tend to wear rose color glasses though.

Robert Carson, 22: Because of his age and build I think Carson might be the best guy currently in AA. He's a lefty and at 6'3" he's right around the area that coaches look for in players. He's another victim of the 4th outing blues. He's another Fastball/Slider/Changeup guy but being a lefty with a low 90's fastball he could develop into something pretty useful at the major league level. At the very least a useful lefty bullpen arm. Because he's only 22 he's likely to not get the call to the majors no matter what in 2011.

Jeurys Familia, 22: Familia lasted until his 5th start before having his bump in the road. Thankfully... he already rebounded nicely. He is striking out a player an inning and that is swell but what I love is his sub 1.00 WHIP. He just doesn't let people on base. His fastball is in the mid 90s and has developed a change and a slurve to compliment the pitch that so impressed scouts back in 2010's Spring Training. Familia hasn't really shown any flaws in A+ so far and a call to AA is only a matter of time.

Matthew Harvey, 22: So far Familia is the highest ceiling pitcher I listed. Familia looks like front-end starter but I don't think I'd call him an Ace. You know who I would call a future Ace? Matt Harvey. He's got a high 90s fastball and a few solid breaking pitches that are the reason he's striking out so many. The biggest issue he had before being drafted was his command and thus far it's been pretty solid. He's walking about 3 men per 9 innings which isn't excessive and he's looked like he's already too good for the hitters at A+.

Gregory Peavey, 23: Greg has been pretty solid in Savanah but he's not dominating the league that is known to be easier on pitchers. His start last night was his best so far. 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 BBs and 6 K's. He's got a fastball that reaches the middle 90s and a hard slider. Peavey is still to far from the majors for me to even venture a prediction of where he'll wind up but he's looking like he'll move up to the FSL either this year or to start next.

Erik Goeddel, 23: Another guy who shows promise that I can't rightly project too well. A hard throwing righty Goeddel has a shot to be a starter or a reliever depending on his development. Right now I can't say which is more likely. To go along with a fastball that I've seen described as a true + pitch, he has a solid curve ball that keeps hitters off balance. The Mets went over slot to get Erik and the expectations for him are reasonably high.

Fire Sale

Should the Mets clean house and do a total Marlin-style reboot? It actually works pretty well for the Marlins as they DO compete for a ring every 5-10 years. The key here is what would classify a "Fire Sale" and what would simply be smart baseball mathematics.

Joel Sherman has shouted "Fire Sale!" for a while. When he says it, we know he's asking the Mets to trade Beltran, Rodriguez and Reyes. They aren't on the roster beyond 2011, so what is the harm? However, I don't REALLY see trading them as a TRUE "Fire Sale." A true cleaning house would likely see the departure of 90% of the current Mets.

My Question: Does Mr. Sherman mean that he wants a "Fire Sale" (selling all contracts that do not contribute to success for this team three or four years from now) or does he want to take advantage of some of our players with expiring contracts and/or high value?

Dearly Departed: 6/8ths of the Lineup

Jose Reyes, SS - You've heard about the Jose debate before. Trade Jose as the Mets have no shot of winning now and need to rebuild. Jose is worth at least two +/++ prospects and likely 3-4 players. He's clearly going to be a Type A free agent so he'd net the Mets a 1st rounder and a compensation pick at minimum. As the sage Matt Cerrone has noted, there isn't a backup plan to Jose in place. Ruben Tejada could play SS but if you lose Jose's bat you need more of a replacement than Tejada gives you.

Daniel Murphy, 2B/1B - Murphy has trade value? Yes, he does. He's played pretty solid 2B and he's proven to be a +hitting 2B while doing it. Add that he can man 1B and 3B reasonably well and more than a few teams might look at him. A lot depends on injuries and who the Mets would be willing to trade him for, but the Mets could get a + prospect in a deal for their blooming 2B.

David Wright, 3B - Trade Wright? I'm not for it, but this is me showing you what a "Fire Sale" would mean. Wright is going to go up in price and likely be looking for a large Ryan Howard/Ryan Braun pay-day in the next year and a half. Trade Wright for a bevvy of prospects and use them to craft a winning club. It's not as crazy as it sounds. Wright is under team control through 2013 and is still a great hitter and an okay defender. The Mets could ask for a boat of prospects for Wright and they'd probably get them from a team with a 3B vacancy looking to win NOW.

Carlos Beltran, RF/DH - Beltran is hitting well and "Fire Sale" or not he's due to be traded. You can thank that no Arbitration clause. He's looked good both in the field and at the plate so there would be some takers but the risk of health is always present so his value takes a hit. You might get a + prospect for Beltran but more likely you get 1 or 2 guys who are in the upper levels of the minors and look like lesser MLB contributors. As Robert points out the Arb Clause ends up not being a factor with Beltran's Age, Injury history and Salary. He'd earn to much in an arbitration case and the Mets wouldn't make the offer.

Jason Bay, LF - Jason Bay happens to cost a lot so if the Mets could move him for a similarly light-ish package like Beltran's they wouldn't be crazy, $36+ Mil is a lot of salary to pick up. Jason Bay can help teams looking for a good hitting corner OF with some power. They'll need to have money or the Mets will need to pay some contract because he makes more than half the players on some teams combined.

Angel Pagan, CF - Pagan is young and still under team control for another year. Even with a "Fire Sale" the Mets COULD keep him, but his skill set is replaceable. He'd get the Mets a middle of the road return. More than Beltran or Bay because of his age and price. Less than Reyes or Wright because he's not nearly as talented. It all depends on the markets need for CFs and how well he rebounds when he returns.

Dearly Departed: Almost the ENTIRE Pitching Staff

Johan Santana, LHSP - I'm in favor of trading Johan no matter what. He's been hurt too much, costs too much and he isn't the guy he was when we traded almost nobody for him. The Mets would be wise to look at offers even if they don't need to cut bait with everyone on a total overhaul. Santana isn't going to fetch the same number or perceived value he did the last time he was traded but at least one +/++ prospect and at least 2 prospects overall.

Mike Pelfrey, RHSP - Right now I'd trade Pelfrey for some Pogs. He's been awful and probably needs to go to AAA to reclaim some semblance of skill. He's young enough and cheap enough that somebody might still buy into his early 2010 numbers and make a deal. That list shrinks each time he pitches. Best case scenario is that he rebounds and builds back some value first. I worry that each time he pitches that value will go the other way.

R.A. Dickey, RHSP - Say it ain't so! Yep, this is a Fire Sale and R.A. Dickey is not a prospect under team control for little too no money. He's a veteran with solid value who could net the team multiple prospects on the trade market. The list for suitors might actually be higher than almost any other player. Met fans would likely have a riot if Alderson actually did it.

Chris Young, RHSP - Young has pitched well when healthy so it's only sensible that he has some value. Young is a 1-year rental and trading him would make sense as soon as the Mets are completely out of the race no matter what. He was definitely a good signing but holding onto him does nothing. Unless he could become a Type A free agent... I don't think he can.

Chris Capuano, LHSP - As a starter not so much value but as a lefty reliever and swing man he has some value. I don't claim that it's a lot of value but it's enough that the Mets could get something back which is generally better than nothing. Capuano or Pelfrey should be moved out of the rotation for Dillon Gee in the near future. It bothers me that the team is screwing around with Gee.

Francisco Rodriguez, RHRP - Frankie has some value already and more value going to a team who HAS a closer. On a team where his option won't vest he's a GREAT 7th or 8th inning setup man who can be a difference maker. Mets could either look to dump his salary and not get much back or pay part of it and get a prospect in return. Both solutions are good and both are smart to do with or without a fire sale.

Taylor Buchholz, RHRP - In the absence of Frankie, Taylor might be the closer... never mind that. This is a "Fire Sale" so Taylor goes too as he's worth more than any other reliever we have. I'm not entirely sure what a cheap, team controlled setup man would net the Mets in terms of prospects but it's likely to be a decent haul. Besides, Pedro Beato is cheaper and younger and can be rushed into the closer role too quickly... just like we planned.

Jason Isringhausen, RHRP - Izzy deserves to be on a winning club the way he's pitched. He is still good enough to handle later innings and he's not going to be of much value down the road. He won't net the Mets a lot but even getting a mediocre prospect might be worth it if we are selling EVERYONE who isn't nailed down.

Who's Left?:

Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Jonathan Niese, Dillon Gee and Pedro Beato would be the players I'd peg to survive even the most complete Met Fire Sale. It would mean promotion for Lutz, Duda, Tejada, Evans, Nieuwenhuis, Martinez, Gorski, Schwinden, Cohoon and others. The team would finish poorly and have a good regular pick in the 2012 draft and enough payroll flexibility to do almost anything.

So... what I'm trying to say here... is that Joel Sherman is wrong. The Mets don't need to have a "Fire Sale". They need to make smart decisions with the players who are not going to be giving the Mets returns beyond this season.

Oh yeah... and if you want the fans to keep showing up at the park... re-sign Reyes.

Prospectin'

I just wanted to take a moment to talk about some of the prospects and pseudo-prospects at camp that might make an impact on the team in the future. I'll be repeating the post on a semi-weekly basis.

Nick Evans - Evans had a hit and has come across as a big positive for the Mets thus far. The problem being that he's out of options and the Mets already have Hu, Emaus, Hairston, Paulino and Harris penciled into the bench. Evans might make himself a trade candidate by playing well but I have a hard time seeing the Mets losing Emaus to keep him.

Fernando Martinez - Martinez had a good day at the plate but was a DH. As long as he's playing I won't complain. Martinez stands a good chance of being a mid-season call-up should Bay or Beltran need to miss an extended time.

Daniel Murphy - Murphy looked pretty good and must have made Terry Collins look up when he followed up a Castillo gaffe inning with a ground-rule double. How about giving Murph or Emaus a start tomorrow?

Mike Nickeas - Nickeas has impressed me with his glove. He's got a strong arm and he also gunned out a runner. Nickeas will probably sit in AAA in case Thole or Paulino are hurt.

Ruben Tejada - Tejada has a great glove and knows how to use it both from SS and 2B but his bat is not presumably ready. Not so fast... Terry Collins thinks Ruben is back into the starting 2B discussion. It's a long-shot but the hitting looks much improved. For me to get excited I need him to prove he can steal 20+ bases.

Jordany Valdespin - Valdespin is a lefty bat with reasonably good contact and a little speed and power. He was an un-impressive BPAB (Bench Player At Best) until the AFL came along and he turned some heads. He K's like he's a power hitter and that can't continue if he's going to actually be good enough to become a MLB starter.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Captain Kirk is a player that coaches love... which is either something that Kirk should worry about in the showers or... he's simply a guy who follows instruction. Either way Kirk needs to be on your radar because he's very much in the mix for the Post-Beltran Mets.

Lucas Duda - Duda is a large man who hits the ball. He's like Chris Carter minus the complete insanity factor (Yes... I miss Animal too) but Duda will probably NOT make the Mets. The issue is that Duda plays LF and 1B and the Mets wanted bench OFs who could do more. Enter Hairston and Harris and exit Duda. 2012 he will at least be our big lefty on the bench.

Justin Turner - Turner is not a GREAT fielder but he is the kind of bench player that you pay for. He hits and can play all of the IF positions.

Brad Emaus - Emaus is a high OBP IF with a powerful build that doesn't lend itself to graceful fielding. Unlike Murphy he's played 2B more and can handle the position adequately. He should make the team if only because the Mets have to give him back if he doesn't.

Wilfredo Tovar - Wilmer Flores gets more buzz as he's heads and tails the better hitter, but Tovar might be the best overall SS in the system. Great fielding and a pretty good bat. The issue is that Tovar will likely be at the same level as Flores so... unless or until Wilmer moves to another position he's not going to get enough playing time.

Pedro Beato - Beato is the other rule 5 pick and I've seen him pitch. He's got a great arm. The question is, will he be worth the roster spot? I'm saying yes right now.

Jenrry Mejia - 99.999% chance Mejia goes to AAA 99.999% chance Mejia is on the MLB club by this fall.

Matt Harvey - Mets top pick is not SUPER far from the majors but, while I'd like to see him pitch to MLB players I predict he starts in Port St. Lucie.