The Future of Met Hitting

I focus on the positives with the minor leagues. So... you can take this post as an indication that not all our young pitching is flourishing, but rest assured that Harvey, Familia, Goeddel, Peavey and Schwinden are all doing fine. I've simply focused on farm pitchers already and it's time to focus on some bats.

AAA, Buffalo Bisons:

Fernando Martinez, Nick Evans, Justin Turner and Ruben Tejada are all in Flushing so that leaves the Met prospect list in AAA a little under manned. There is still ONE familiar face and Toby Hyde would like us fans to stop demanding that the Mets promote him. Just because he blogs about the minors for SNY doesn't mean he has the authority to promote anyone.

Kirk Niewenhuis, OF - Kirk went through a bit of a dry-spell for the first part of may but is back to his hitting ways. Why is he still in AAA? Well... that has a lot to do with Angel Pagan not being long from returning to the MLB. He's really shown a pretty solid bat through his first 125 ABs and he's displaying a good amount of power with 14 doubles, 2 triples and 6 Hrs. If Kirk can play MLB CF, then he's an A+ prospect if he's a corner outfielder that power becomes more necessary and I'm not sold on him hitting more than 20 dingers a year... particularly in Citi-Field.

AA, Binghamton B-Mets:

Maybe I'll catch a game when my wife and I visit her family in the area. With their inconsistent play, I'm not sure how wild I am to do it though. The fact is, that with all the offensive stars in the Met system... Binghamton is the lightest equipped. Not their fault Reese Havens is an injury waiting to happen.

Joshua Satin, 2B/Util - Josh is going to move on up to AAA at some point... I'd wager soon. Or at least as soon as Havens can actually play. With AAA so heavily mined it makes sense. Now... I'm not sold on Satin being a major league starter. I don't think MANY people are. I do think he could be a major league utility guy. What's the issue? Well... we already have Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans and the list goes on. A big feather in Satin's favor is an advanced eye that means to me that he'll be a good PH candidate.

Jordany Valdespin, SS/2B - After a rough start to the year, the guy some peg to "replace" Jose Reyes (Next week: The Save Reyes Campaign Begins), Valdespin is rounding into form. He's got some power... 10 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Hrs and some speed... 10 SBs. What he doesn't have is command of the strike zone. He's walked 9 times and K'd 29. Now... that isn't awful but it's a long way from what we'd need. Should Reyes leave town, he's still the likely incumbent but I don't see Jordany as a long-term replacement unless he can get that ratio to 1:2.

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:

High A is one of the better teams the Mets have, though recently it seems the bullpen is struggling. The fact is the team has 4 or even 5 very good OFs and for that reason I believe a few will be Northward bound in the very near future. I am not going to list them all because I want to focus on players I see as true impact players right now.

Matt Den Dekker, CF - More than a few people are excited about Matt. He's got a great glove... so... no worries about needing to shift to a corner and he's showed a good amount of power (for a CF). 15 doubles, 7 triples and 2 HRs. His speed is pretty normal and I'd put him in the 15-20 SB range in the majors but I'll take the healthy mix he DOES provide any day. One thing he DOES do it hit... a lot. He's hitting .331 and that is pretty solid by anyone's measure. The issue is that common BB:K problem. 8 walks and 35 K's is a big reason why he has not made the jump to AA.

Juan Lagares, OF - Lagares beats out Pedro Zapata and Caesar Puello because of his RECENT hitting. On the double header of May 15th, Juan belted 3 HRs between the two games. He's seemed a little slower to develop than some other prospects. He caught up to the SAL last year and looked over-matched in the FSL. Now he's caught up to FSL so I think that next year he should be ready to try AA. He's got some power but will need to develop a bunch more to be a major league starter.

Wilmer Flores, SS - I couldn't resist. With all the great starts young players have had, Flores has been lost in the flow a bit. Chalk up part of that to stupid minor league reporters for Baseball Prospectus who thing they're being original when they re-hash the, Wilmer can't play SS story. No... he can't... but I am pretty sure 3B, LF, RF and 1B are still places he could shine. Has he hit for power? Not to the extent people want to see... no. HOWEVER, he's hitting for some power and he's picked up the power numbers more now that he's settled into the season. Take a cue from Douglas Adams and "Don't Panic!"

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:

Some of the players I'm particularly excited about have not proved me right as of yet so I'll focus on two guys who aren't disappointing.

Cory Vaughn, OF - Greg Vaughn's kid is... AWESOME. He may not be hitting for prolific power like he did in the NYP but he's doing almost everything you could want a prospect to do. Is he hitting? You bet! He's hitting .331 and slugging .478 (He's hit 2 of his three HRs recently so it might be a sign of things to come). How's his plate discipline? TOPS! He's got a 27:37 BB/K ratio and is a leader in OBP. How's his defense? Pretty good. He's played all three outfield positions. He projects to have the hitting chops to play anywhere anyway. If I had to find a flaw it would be the 4 CS in 10 attempts. It doesn't look like he's a prolific base stealer. Though... 6 SBs does point to the ability to nab at least a few.

Robbie Shields, SS - Can Shields stick at SS? I don't know. He's got more of a shot than Wilmer Flores. Shields is a hitting infielder and that isn't something to scoff at. He's got a few TRULY gaudy stats. His K/BB ratio? 21:21. That's sick! Most of his hitting has come in May and that should tell you that he's potentially a big star who just took a month to REALLY get going. My biggest worry is that Shields is also not destined to stick at SS and that hurts his value.

And Greg Vaughn's Son

The Mets minors are still going a long in a mostly positive way. The pitchers... for the most part have all hit the first "Bump in the road" of the season but at the same time, the hitters are heating up. There are lots of things to be happy about. One of them, is related to Mr. Vaughn.

AAA:

Full Name: Ruben Dario Tejada

Born: 10/27/1989

Birthplace: Veraguas, Panama

Height: 5' 11"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Before the season I referred to Tejada as a bench middle infielder in the same mold as a Chin-Lung Hu. He had good defense and that was about it. Thus far, in 2011 he's got an OPS of .800 and has 14 RBIs. Ruben Tejada has gone from looking like he couldn't hit to looking like he's one of the better hitting SS's. He's obviously hitting for some power with an .800 OPS, but how much? 3 Doubles, 2 Triples and 2 Homers in 22 games. On the down-side, he's still not running enough. 2 SBs and 1 CS make me really hesitant to see him in a lead-off role. Right now he's looking like a very nice #7/#8 hitter option at the major-league level.

Full Name: Kirk Robert Nieuwenhuis

Born: 08/07/1987

Birthplace: Santa Monica, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Captain Kirk is looking like a star. An OPS of 1.021 makes that pretty obvious. However all of his hitting is not turning into production. He trails Ruben Tejada by 8 RBIs. It's just a little screwy and has more to do with where they are hitting in the order. Kirk may not be capable of holding down a good enough CF to last in Citi-Field but he's hitting like a +++CF so... he's hitting well enough to play right field if he's asked to. If Pagan were going to be out for a month or longer I'd give Kirk a shot at coming up and getting a look as an everyday player. Yesterday I saw someone comment that He should come up and be on the bench. I wanted to smack that fan. Kirk could be a starting OF for the Mets in 2012 and they don't want to halt his progress by making him a bench player.

Full Name: Jesus Fernando Martinez

Born: 10/10/1988

Birthplace: Rio San Juan, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Fernando has already taken a 2 week break this season. By which you should know I mean he's been injured. He's responded to the critics by returning with a vengence. He's got 3 extra base hits in his 6 games back and his OPS is sitting at .935. However, don't get excited unless he stays healthy for all of May and continues to hit. Then you can start to think about whether he or Kirk will replace Carlos in right.

Full Name: Jenrry Manuel Mejia

Born: 10/11/1989

Birthplace: Tabara Arriba, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Jenrry has finally hit a bump in the road. After looking flawless in his first two starts he looked okay on the 19th and bad on the 24th. He's still really limiting hits and looking pretty sharp in general but it is evident that he belongs in AAA for the time being. Mejia is a pretty solid thought for a late-season call-up particularly if the Mets fall from contention.

AA:

Full Name: Joshua Satin

Born: 12/23/1984

Birthplace: Hidden Hills, CA

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Joshua Satin has emerged as the biggest threat in the Binghamton lineup. Once Den Dekker and others join him, that will likely shift, but for now... he's the king of Binghamton. He's really doing just about everything we could want him to. Hitting often and for power. He's also a touch old. He's 26 and only in AA. He could be in AAA easily but even if he were... is he better than Justin Turner? I don't think he is.

Full Name: Jordany V Valdespin

Born: 12/23/1987

Birthplace: San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: R

Jordany had a BAD start to the year but things are improving. He's now hitting .237 which is 50 points of improvement from where he was not so long ago. He's also shown speed and some power. The drawback with Jordany will always be his discipline. He's not good at taking a walk and he shows a David Wright-like ability to strike out. It's not good to see but it's not impossible to correct. He's on a short list of people who would potentially replace Jose Reyes in 2012 but I hope it doesn't come to that. Valdespin would make a GREAT bench player as he has good defense and a reasonably good bat.

Full Name: Mark E. Cohoon

Born: 09/15/1987

Birthplace: Burleson, TX

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Holt and Carson suffered bad starts and Cohoon too had a bump in the road. Mark's bump was REALLY minor. He has looked like the most polished and ready pitcher in the farm and he's the most likely guy to be called up next. He's blocked by Dillon Gee who is providing depth at the major-league level right now. If the Mets shift Capuano into the bullpen (as I think they should) then Cohoon will be next in line to get a call. Is AAA necessary for him to stop at on the way? I don't think it really is.

A+:

Full Name: Matthew G Den Dekker

Born: 08/10/1987

Birthplace: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: L

Den Dekker was pegged by some as the best defensive OF in the Met's system. I just wanted to illustrate something about his hitting. Matt owns a 1.024 OPS and a 1.380 OPS over the past 10 games. 11 Doubles, 3 Triples and 1 Homer, almost half of his hits have gone for extra bases. The only thing holding Matt in A+ ball is likely the organization trying to demonstrate patience and diligence. He's ready to test the tougher pitching of AA and I hope he can continue his great hitting.

Full Name: Wilmer Alejandro Flores

Born: 08/06/1991

Birthplace: Valencia, Venezuela

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 175

Bats: R

Throws: R

So... Baseball America is ready to write Wilmer off. His approach is no good, he's terrible at defense and he has no power. If you can definitively say that after 1 month of baseball, I think you should thank Ms. Cleo for your information. Wilmer is hitting... for average. He's starting to pick up the pace for power, but if you look at his history it follows his progression. When he landed in A+ ball last year he hit the ball consistently and for no power for a little over two weeks before he settled in and started looking to drive the ball. Is his defense bad? You bet. Look for Marte to move to Binghamton and Wilmer to possibly shift to third.

Full Name: Jefry Leonal Marte

Born: 06/21/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 187

Bats: R

Throws: R

Marte is known for starting slow and then playing okay baseball to reclaim some of his potential. This season he started like a rocket. He's hit the ball with authority, 4 HRs and he's shown some discipline with 10 BBs. Marte has sorta re-established his value in the farm after falling out of many peoples lists. Marte is leading the team with Den Dekker and may soon be LEAVING the team with Den Dekker. I would expect to see Jefry and Matt move to AA and perhaps Flores shifting to 3rd.

Full Name: Cesar David Puello

Born: 04/01/1991

Birthplace: La Romana, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Puello rocketed into our combined consciousness in 2010 after having a big second half in Savannah. He's started 2011 slowly, but the hope is that he's starting to make corrections. He's bringing his batting average steadily upwards and he's hitting some doubles, but that STAR quality is missing. My biggest worry is his 2/18 BB/K ratio. He needs to fix that if he's going to stay in the Met's top 10 prospects.

Full Name: Matthew Harvey

Born: 03/27/1989

Birthplace: Groton, CT

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Another pitcher who had a rough go this week. Through 4 starts... FLAWLESS. The last one... shows he's a work in progress. Still, 5 starts in his minor league career and he's 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA and a K/9 over 9.00. Harvey has a bright future and still has a ticket to Binghamton at some point this season.

Full Name: Jeurys Familia

Born: 10/10/1989

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Familia has the benefit of not having pitched in the last couple days. Will he avoid the plague of bad outings? Well... I think he's got a good shot. The secret to Familia's success has been not allowing anyone on base. 9 hits and 7 walks in 25.2 innings makes it REALLY hard to lose ball games. Familia might actually be the pitching prospect with the highest ceiling in the Met system.

A:

Full Name: Aderlin Rodriguez

Born: 11/18/1991

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Do I really have a player hitting below .200 on this list? Yes, yes I do. First of all he's hitting .279 in his last 10 games and second of all, do you know how hard it is to have a .192 average and an SLG over .400? Aderlin's power is REAL. He's also shown he can probably stick as a 3B, though he's not a whiz in the field. He's hit all four of his homers in the past 5 games so it will be interesting to see how long his power streak will live. I am really okay with Rodriguez moving up the system pretty slowly so look for him to stick around in Savannah for a while.

Full Name: Cory Vaughn

Born: 05/01/1989

Birthplace: Carmichael, CA

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Greg Vaughn's kid is not exactly a clone of his father. He's taller, he's faster and he's capable of playing all OF positions. Vaughn has been the only really consistent bat in Savannah and he's putting together a strong overall game. He's got some power and some speed, he's not too prone to strike out and he's been solid in the field. We are all waiting to see if he can start to belt with consistent power like he did in Brooklyn. If he can do that he'll rocket up the scouting reports.

Minors Must Be Accompanied By Adult

With Reyes in the final year of his contract, the Wilpons in denial about their need to get out of Dodge and the Mets floundering at the worst record in baseball, I wanted to look at teams who might have a good package of players to offer the Mets. First I'll identify teams who have a need for Jose Reyes and who the Mets COULD trade with. Then I'll see who has the players in the farm to interest the Mets in MAKING a deal.

Why am I doing this on a Friday? Fridays are for minors and I'm looking into the minors for many other teams to find trade partners. If you want an update on the Met's minor leaguers, visit Toby's blog and check it out. The news has been good.

The Long List:

Arizona Diamondbacks - They have Stephen Drew. No
Atlanta Braves - They need a SS in 2012 and may like Reyes' future more than waiting for a prospect. The issue is that Atlanta is not going to trade good prospects to a division rival and the Mets are not going to trade Reyes to Atlanta. No
Baltimore Orioles - Hardy isn't the answer but they already have THE top SS prospect so I can't see them biting. No
Boston Redsox - Jed Lowrie is on fire and they ALSO have Jose Iglesias and too many guys who hit lead-off. Boston is a possibility if only because they can afford to move Iglesias for a surer thing. Yes
Chicago Cubs - They have Starlin Castro. No
Chicago White Sox - They have Alexei Ramirez. No
Cincinnati Reds - They have the need at SS and no great internal solution. Yes
Cleveland Indians - They have Asdrubal Cabrera and if they are buyers, I'd bet he's playing plenty well. No
Colorado Rockies - Troy Tulowitzki is there and that means it's obvious. No
Detroit Tigers - The Tigers finances are already stretched and they have a fine SS. No Florida Marlins - Hanley Ramirez is not being moved to make room for Jose. No Houston Astros - The Astros would love Bourn and Reyes hitting together but have no reason to spend in 2011. No
Kansas City Royals - Not after they traded for Alcides Escobar. No
Los Angeles Angels - Alright, so they have Aybar, and he's fine, but they'd love Reyes and they can make trades using a pretty solid farm. Yes
Los Angeles Dodgers - They have Furcal, but even so... Tom Gordon's son is ready to replace Rafael and Bud Selig is not looking to spend on a big long-term contract now that he controls the team. No
Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee is interesting but hard to see happening. They have the need for Jose, they'll be in contention, and they will likely free up money because Fielder will walk. Maybe
Minnesota Twins - They are in an awful funk but even assuming they recovered and were buyers I don't think Reyes is a Twins-type move. No
New York Yankees - Derek Jeter has a few more years left but do the Yankees want to deal with his declining range and arm? Yes
Oakland Athletics - They could easily be in contention and looking to upgrade over Cliff Pennington. Would the Athletics part with prospects like Grant Green and a pitcher to get Reyes on their team? Maybe
Philadelphia Phillies - Rollins is set to walk and DEFINITELY in the growing twilight of a good career. Alderson would be assassinated if he made a move like that. No
Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates spend money? Well... let's just think about the fact that their lineup is starting to have signs of growth and that they do have an opening at short for Reyes. Maybe (Probably Not)
San Diego Padres - Jason Bartlett is all they can afford at that position. No
San Francisco Giants - With Miggy not a long-term answer for anyone, I'd imagine that the Giants will be on top of the Mets to see what can be worked out. Yes
Seattle Mariners - I can't see the Mariners as buyers so I can't even make this a thought. No
St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis has bigger problems but if they are close they might offer a good package for Reyes to win again before Pujols leaves. Probably Not
Tampa Bay Rays - Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez seem to not be the greatest fits for the team and they'd love Reyes to hit in front of Longoria but the money is an issue and a long-term deal is unlikely. Maybe
Texas Rangers - Andrus is already like Reyes but younger. No
Toronto Blue Jays - On the one hand they need a lead-off hitter like Reyes but on the other they are squared away with Yunel Escobar. No
Washington Nationals - Not with Ian Desmond. No

The Short List:

Boston Red Sox - The biggest reasons Boston wouldn't make a trade are the success of Jed Lowrie and the presence of Jose Iglesias. It does seem to follow logic of recent Boston teams that trading for Reyes would at least be an option. The concept requires Lowrie to not be doing well and Iglesias not ready to help with a playoff push, but it's possible. The Mets should not get TOO excited if Iglesias is the big part of the trade package as I'm not sold on him being much more of a hitter than Ruben Tejada.
Cincinnati Reds - Zack Cozart doesn't strike me as a replacement to Reyes or anything to hinge a trade on. HE DOES have a mix of power and speed but he's not going to turn into Troy Tulowitzki. The average looks like it'll be around .250 in the majors and I don't know how well the other numbers will translate.
Los Angeles Angels - Brandon Wood is probably not going to excite the Mets too much, but he might be the logical choice as a part of a larger package. Though L.A. could easily also go with an offer that included the safer Erick Aybar. The Mets would need to hinge the package on other prospects. Don't you dare mention Mike Trout, they aren't trading Tim Salmon's illegitimate son. However the Mets might inquire on Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Walden and others.
Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers don't have a good SS prospect to match but I suppose Baseball America named Scooter Gennet 2B/SS their #4 prospect for 2011. Frankly the top 4 are all doing miserably, but Milwaukee is doing well and could use Reyes so I wouldn't count them out.
New York Yankees - The Mets would have their choice of lovely catching prospects but that doesn't help when they'd need pitching and a SS. The good news is that the Yankees have several pitchers of note. Now... two of them have had bad starts but I'd wager to say the Yankees would be in the mix if Reyes were available.
Oakland Athletics - Oakland has Grant Green in their farm and he's a good prospect. That might preclude them from dealing for Reyes alone. What Oakland doesn't have is a "Star". People don't line up for Kevin Kouzmanoff. Oakland's pitching staff is solid and they ALWAYS have more prospects down the pipe. If I'm the Mets Mr. Green MUST be part of the deal if I trade.
Pittsburgh Pirates - They have two things going for them right now. They have a talented farm and they are starting to build a talented team. Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen are a good core, but imagine adding a star like Reyes to the team and the kind of boost he'd be to the fans. On the side of what they have to offer, look at Chase D'Arnaud who doesn't WOW me and a boat load of pitchers including Jeff Locke but excluding James Taillon... they aren't trading him.
San Francisco Giants - I've come up with two SS's Brandon Carwford and Ehire Adrianza and a pitcher, Zack Wheeler. Crawford looks like the better prospect and Wheeler looks good but expendable in an over-stocked pitching system. Crawford isn't ready for the majors yet and Tejada is not going to last, so it might make sense to see a swap for the Mets nabbing Crawford and pitching and the Giants getting Reyes. Maybe we could include K-Rod as the Giants wouldn't need to let him close?
Tampa Bay Rays - Plenty of reasons to not do it. They don't have a great shot at holding onto Reyes and they are in the toughest division in baseball. HOWEVER, if they got him he'd make the team an instant top contender again. The other half against the likelihood is that they have TWO good SS prospects. Do the Rays get itchy for another run at glory and cut a deal. They have the pieces to trade and could easily hold onto either Tim Beckham or Hak-Ju Lee and let Reyes walk. I could see them thinking about it.

Conclusion:
I'd say that the Giants and Reds probably match up best in terms of need/offer. With pretty good prospects in their systems at SS they can both make trades to appeal to the Mets. Perhaps later this year I'll venture what the packages offered might be.

Generation K... Again?

As I talk about these players below as a new potential home-grown force for the Mets I caution those fans who lived through the first Generation K not to slit their own wrists. Let me also just say, "Paul Wilson looks a lot like Mike Pelfrey." Anyway... The old Generation K produced an oft-injured starter, a very good closer and... Bill Pulsipher. It didn't kick off a new Golden Age (First Golden Age?) for Met pitching and they didn't win a fist full of Cy Youngs.

Why should I have faith in this new crop of young guns? Because... well... you shouldn't. History and math are steeply stacked against them. Why do I have such faith? I'm a glutton for punishment. Care to meet them?

Jenrry Mejia - 10/11/1989 (21) AAA
6'0", 160 Lbs Bats: R Throws: R
If you haven't yet heard the name Mejia, you are likely not an East Coast baseball fan. He's not only the Met's top pitching prospect he's among the better prospects overall in the minors. Mejia is all of 21 years old and looks pretty dominant in AAA. His most recent start did begin with an UGLY inning but he followed that with a flawless 4.2 that should put everyone at ease. Mejia is the first pitcher on the list because he's the closest to a finished product and has one of the highest ceilings in the group. His fastball can hit up to 97 and usually sits around 94. He has a plus change up and a curve ball that can be used effectively if sparingly.

Matt Harvey - 3/27/1989 (22) A+
6'4", 225 Lbs. Bats: S Throws: R
Matt has what is known to scouts as the ideal build for a starting pitcher. Something about having a body like the trunk of a tree seems to get scouts all excited. What gets me as a fan excited is his 96-97 MPH fastball, his plus-plus slider and his flawless minor league record. Harvey not only looks like the real deal, he looks like he could be the second closest pitching prospect despite being new to the farm and only in Port St. Lucie. The consensus is that Matt will travel North to Binghamton once Binghamton becomes a little warmer. Once there he could continue to pitch well and see a September call-up (depending on the MLB clubs awful record.

Brad Holt - 10/13/1986 (24) AA
6'4", 194 Lbs. Bats: R Throws: R
Not only do you probably remember this guy, you probably have already written him off. I don't know if I can blame you. In 2008 he obliterated the New York Penn League. In 2009 he fared well in Port St. Lucie and less well in Binghamton. In 2010 he imploded BIG TIME falling back from AA and still doing poorly down in A+ However 2011 has seen a resurgence from Bradley. He's only had two starts but the big stat that plagued him is not cropping up in a big way. He's walking far fewer. His velocity is also supposed to be back (some... not all) and that means that he's back on track to see the majors in 2011 or 2012.

Jeurys Familia - 10/10/1989 (21) A+
6'3", 185 Lbs. Bats: R Throws: R
So... I seriously debated putting Jeurys above Holt but he lands 4th on the list because I think the Mets will try to play it safer with him. Frankly, of all the great season starts for Met minor league pitchers... Familia's is the best. He's through three starts and he's given up 6 hits. His K/9 is floating just beneath the 9.00 mark where I imagine all front-end starters should be and his ERA... like most on this list is almost non-existent 0.48. Last spring Met officials talked about Familia having the best fastball in camp. His season was not perfect but he had the K's and low-ish Opp Avg that I know he's capable of. If I had to pick which of the pitchers on this short list could be a TRUE ACE... it would be him.

Will any of these young guns turn into the second coming of Ryan and Gooden? Will they provide the home-grown pitching that made Atlanta the most predictable playoff team of a decade? I hope so. Just remember that for every bunch of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavines, there's an equally un-thrilling Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher.

Minority Report: Episode I

Sometimes, when your team is not winning, you NEED to look at the minors for something positive. Sometimes, you can't find anything even there. My weekly Minority Reports will alternate between good news... and bad news. I'm starting with good news because... Met fans NEED good news.

Pitching:

AAA, Jenry Mejia (SP) - 2011... two starts down and Mejia is well on his way BACK to the majors. If I had to guess how Mejia will eventually fit into the rotation in the majors, it would be that Capuano would shift into a relief role and Mejia would take the #5 starter job. How soon might this happen? I keep hearing that Alderson is going to be more conservative than Alderson, but I'd say that mid-late May is in the realm of maybe. Depends on Mejia continuing to be awesome in all ways and Capuano/Byrdak continuing to struggle in their roles.

AAA, Dillon Gee (SP) - I am not Gee's biggest fan. The right handed Mark Cohoon isn't what I look for in a minor leaguer. Then again... neither is the left-handed Dillon Gee, but I like Cohoon and don't like Gee anyway. Gee isn't going to blow anyone away and his major league success is baffling. The big thing with Dillon is that he can eat innings. Gee will go out and keep the team (more or less) in the game. THAT is totally worth something. He's simply not going to suddenly be worth more than a #6 pitcher. He's not going to suddenly become an Ace and teams are not going to suddenly be clamoring to trade for him. Take him for what he is.

AAA, Jose De La Torre (RP) - At 25 years of age (now, he'll be 26 in October) he's reaching the make it or break it point in his minor league career. Jose first jumped out at me after his 2009 season in AA/AAA. 2010 he spent in AAA and had an equally nice line: 70.1 IP, 2.69 ERA, 80 K's and 34 BB's. What could be wrong with that? Not a whole lot. In 2011 he's made 4 appearences between 1 and 2 innings. He's keeping the ball on the ground AND maintaining his 9.00 K/9 that he's been good for since 2009. He'll be up with the Mets in 2011 at some point. Someone want to turn him into a lefty for me?

AAA, Michael O'Connor (RP) - He's 30 now and he'll be 31 in August, so... it's not like Mike is going to be a big star. That's okay though. He IS a lefty and he's been effective. I'm not just talking about his (thus far) perfect 2011. I'm talking about his eye-opening 2010. His numbers won't knock your socks off, but if Byrdak continues to struggle, O'Connor is the next in line to try to run with the LOOGY role.

AA, Josh Stinson (SP) - He's only 23 and he's had pretty decent success throughout his minor-league career. Let me couch that by saying he's never REALLY been outstanding, but he's never been awful. He's a big (6'4" 210lbs) righty who has pretty good control. The best news is that he's been generally healthy through his minor-league career. He's been as high as AAA and he could go back there soon. Stinson has a good shot at a call-up in 2011 but it might be as a reliever.

AA, Robert Carson (SP) - 2008 was Carson's "Break-Out" year. It was in pitcher friendly Savanah, so don't get too excited. At 22, he's still not old to be at AA and at this stage in development. He's another guy who looks like he might be in the middle ground between relief and starting, but the potential for a back-end rotation guy is there. Carson's first start was fine, but he'll need to keep it up for me to not forget him quickly.

AA, Mark Cohoon (SP) - Cohoon dazzled in Savanah last year. So much so, that the Mets had him skip the FSL and move straight to Binghamton. The experiment looked like a bad idea, but Mark turned things around in his final starts of 2010 and re-assured a lot of his supporters. Who does Cohoon remind me of? Besides Dillon Gee as a lefty? I suppose in a perfect world he could turn into Rick Reed. Mark Cohoon gets things done by forcing hitters to put the ball in play. That is a scary thought should Murphy be playing second and Duda roaming the outfield, but it's not like pitchers haven't had good careers with similar stuff. AND... he's a lefty, so... there's that too.

AA, Bradley Holt (SP) - Wait a second, I thought this guy was washed up and washed out. He was a total failure in 2010, right? Well... yeah... but that doesn't mean so much in my mind as long as he rights the ship in 2011. Let me start by saying he's had 1 start in AA in 2011 and he's never looked better at that level. His K's are down and BB's are up but, Holt could definitely re-establish a future with the Mets if he continues to pitch this well.

AA, Chris Schwinden (RP) - Who? Really... WHO? I have never heard of Chris before I did the research for 2011. He's... well, he's yet another starter/reliever that most farms are chock full of. I was going to ignore him and his 3 innings of work for 2011 but they were good innings so he made the list. Perhaps the only blog he's been on thus far. Hey Chris, keep getting 2 K's an inning and I'll keep putting you on my minor league reports. Deal?

A+, Jeurys Familia (SP) - Familia had a good 2008 and followed it with a good 2009 so last spring, people watched him. They REALLY liked what they saw. Frankly, he throws really REALLY hard. Most scouts like that sort of thing. 2011 has started off SWIMMINGLY for Jeurys, who will likely be moving onto AA in the next month or so. He's getting more K's, he's walking less players and... well... 13 innings and 2 hits isn't going to make anyone think he's not something special. Unlike Harvey, I think he's not in the running for a rotation spot until 2013 or later.

A+, Matthew Harvey (SP) - Matt was drafted LAST year and already Met fans are calling for him to come up to the majors. I wish I was kidding, but with the Mets needing a starter in the near future and Gee not available to come up people were saying, "Why not Harvey? Nobody has a scouting report on the guy." I listed Matt a few days ago and went Google diving for a photo, if you MUST see his face, check the archives. Harvey's 2011 has had 2 starts. In his first game, he only lasted 5 innings but struck out 9 and didn't give up a run. In his second start he lasted 6 but only K'd 8. This lowered his K/9 to 13.9 while his ERA hovered around a RESPECTABLE 0.00. He's pegged to move up to AA when Binghamton thaws.

A, Gregory Peavey (SP) - Another draft pick from last season, I like to think that Greg is related to Jake. Maybe they are... but nothing came up on my first sweep. Greg is in Savanah and has had 1 sparkling successful start and 1 not so successful one. I'll throw him up here and hope he gets back to those 5 inning, 8 K shutouts.

A, Yohan Almonte (SP) - Almonte became known last season as he pitched wonderfully in Brooklyn. Personally, I liked Cuan better but, let's not get into it. Yohan is going to have a K/BB somewhere around 4.00 and a K/9 somewhere around 6.00. That means he's not a blow-em away pitcher, but he's always had a good ERA and he just seems like he's got a shot. This year he's starting in Savanah and he'll need to continue to have a 3.00 or better ERA to keep my interest but... I think he can do it.

A, Ronny Morla (RP) - Morla looks a lot older than he is. That photo makes him look 30 when he was born in 1988. Now... being from Latin America, he might wind up being 30, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt. The reason I want to do that is that he's got a K/9 over 9 and a steady history in the minors since 2006. None of his numbers SCREAM at me, but having 7 K's in 5 innings of relief seems to fit his overall profile.

A, Chase Huchingson (RP) - He's tall and skinny and a lefty. He also has gotten more K's than innings pitched and he's only 22 (as of yesterday). I don't know him from Adam but I can tell you he went undrafted and got a small taste of the APP league in 2010.

Batting:

AAA, Ruben Tejada (SS/2B) - Tejada REALLY wants me to start having some faith in him. I'm not there yet, but I'm on the way. Firstly, he's batting over .300 (.346, but who's counting) which he'll need to do because he's got only 1 extra base hit. That being said, after 7 games he's stolen two bags and is well on his way to a 20-30 SB season. Will I take a middle infielder who can get on base and run? Sure I will. If Ruben keeps this up, he might make Terry think about giving him the reigns at 2B soon.

AAA, Fernando Martinez (RF) - Let's get this out of the way first. Fernando is injured... AGAIN! I don't think it's serious as much as it is one of those lingering ailments he always seems to find. Also... after 4 games he's only had 1 good one. Going 4-5 with a double is pretty DARN good, but I'm not going to get too excited or start demanding that he come up to the majors. Fernando needs to stay healthy once he's recovered or I think his time with the Mets will be drawing to a close.

AAA, Zach Lutz (3B) - Somebody smacked me when I said that Lutz had a bad glove. That is not true, he's got a fine glove and a good arm. he's also slugging .565 (as of yesterday) and looking like the offensive leader of the AAA team. That's pretty good considering that: Nick Evans, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Justin Turner and others with higher acclaim are surrounding him. Zach will not be manning 3B for the Mets anytime soon, but I think that he's played and hit well enough to attract notice from teams who might be looking for a new 3B option.

AA, Kai Gronauer (C) - Zur Germans are coming! Hide the BEER! Kai Gronauer is probably in line to be the back-up/platoon-mate for Thole after 2011. Though Paulino could certainly change our tune. What I like best is that unlike F-Mart, he's getting hits consistently and not all at once. He's hit in 4 of 6 games he's started and that shows me that he's got potential to be useful in a major-league lineup. He's not Mauer, V-Mart or Posey, but he looks like he'll be useful.

A+, Pedro Zapata (CF) - You will hear people called prototypical center fielders. What this means is good defense, good speed and HOPEFULLY good contact. Pedro is all those things and looks like he might be developing a fairly good floor to his overall value. You will often hear things like Wilmer Flores has an extremely high ceiling but with no SURE position, his floor is still low. Zapata's floor looks like it would be a major league 4th OF. That isn't too bad.

A+, Francisco Pena (C) - Pena is big and his big-ness leads people to believe he has power. I might believe it too if he'd shown it yet. I'll be satisfied if he can continue to hit for average and stay healthy for the full year. With Kai Gronauer above him, I don't think he'll be rushed along... at least... he shouldn't be. He is also young, so he's not exactly due in the majors for a while. Maybe 2014? Keep him somewhat on your radar as he was once highly praised by scouts.

A+, Jefry Marte (3B) - This is Marte's best start... EVER. Maybe he's turned the corner? Probably just getting lucky though. I'm not sure he has the chops to cut it anywhere in the majors but he's VERY young so he could sure develop some of those tools in the minors. His 2010 was pretty solid, so if he has even a slightly better 2011 he'll be moving up to AA before he turns 20.

A, Sam Honeck (1B) - He's not a big-time prospect but hitting .476 with 3 BB's and 2 doubles is worth listing in my book. He played in Savanah last year and hit a robus .091... so yeah... good job and we hope to see you again on the good list.



A, Cory Vaughn (OF) - Aww... Greg Vaughn's son is totally adorable. Compared to Greg, that is. Cory displayed plenty of power in Brooklyn but lately he's mainly proving he can play EVERYWHERE. He's played LF, CF and RF for the Sand Gnats and he's played okay. He's also hitting near .300. My favorite stat is that he's walked 4 times and K'd 4 times... this from a power hitter? Well... he's more of an all-around hitter. Cory is blocked by a crowded bunch of talented OFs throughout the Met's system but I can't imagine he won't find his way moving onto Florida in 2011.

A, Javier Rodriguez (OF) - He's only hitting .261, but... he's got a double a triple and 2 HR's. So he's slugging .652 and that is pretty great. Javier was a top pick from one of our meager free agent heavy years. He had a nice year in 2010 and looks to be having an even better 2011. He's definitely a corner OF from what I hear but if he's going to keep getting extra-base shots, I won't complain.

Most numbers compiled as of 4/14/11