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Last season my New York Knights became Champions for the first time in this league that has run for three seasons.

Where In The World Is Jose Reyes?

Jose Reyes is in the final year of his Team friendly contract and heading towards free agency. This is the kind of situation we constantly see the Padres faced with... wait... the Mets aren't the Padres... That doesn't change the fact that the Mets have invited a bidding war for their speedy SS after the 2011 season. Now... The Mets will have $4o Million coming off the books which is more than enough for Jose and leaves room for more. HOWEVER this is the new fiscally conservative New York franchise. God I hope the Wilpons sell soon.

The Mets Keep Reyes Long-Term:
Sandy Alderson can talk about not giving out long contracts but players in this day and age want them and the Mets can actually afford to give them. So if Reyes performs well and helps the Mets have a rebound year, Alderson will potentially pony up and Reyes will stay in Blue and Orange.

The Mid-Season Farewell:
Jose Reyes plays well but the Mets don't. The Mets cut their losses and trade Jose for some prospects and hope to form a new plan. This won't preclude the Mets from getting him back after the season but I highly doubt Jose would be begging to come back to the Mets were this the case.

Compensation Picks:
Mets hold Jose Reyes through the season and after the season Alderson balks at the price. The Mets offer Jose Arbitration and he declines and signs elsewhere... at least he's likely to be a type A.

Worst Case:
Jose is hurt, has no value and sinks to a type B or worse. If this happens the Mets might be kissing Jose goodbye for absolutely NOTHING.

Where?:

Philadelphia - Rollins is in a contract year but Jose is younger and the Phillies would love to sting the Mets yet again.

New York - Jeter just signed a contract but the Yankees need to think pragmatically about his ability to play short long-term.

Boston - Scutaro isn't an answer and Lowrie has yet to prove much. Could Boston call on Jose to fill that position? (Imagine this: Ellsbury, Reyes, Crawford as a 1,2,3... JESUS!)

Los Angeles - Furcal has been fine but the Dodgers might be looking for a new solution to an old problem.

Atlanta - Alex Gonzalez is not a long-term solution and if their prospect fizzles they might inquire.

St. Louis - Let us say that the Cards lose Pujols... might they ease the pain by acquiring Jose?

Seattle - They may try to be the Big Splash again and nab Jose to join Figgins and Ichiro for their own 1,2,3 nightmare.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Keith Law's 26th Best Farm... Can hit!

Sorry Keith, but next time don't insult my boys. (Keith Law was not injured in the writing of this Blog post.)

Now my Law aimed vengeance is not severe like that aimed at Steve Philips whenever he opens his mouth, but it's palpable. Law ranked the Mets 26th out of 30 teams in terms of the strength of our minor-leagues. I don't claim to have the Tampa Bay system or the Kansas City system, but... are we REALLY that bad?

* - Career Minor Leaguer
** - Journey Man
*** - MLB Bench Player
**** - MLB Starter
***** - MLB Star

None of these rankings are set in stone but given the players age, skill, and level I think that all of their rankings fit their current projections.

AAA:
C: Mike Nickeas, **
1B: Nick Evans, ***
2B: Justin Turner, ***
SS: Ruben Tejada, ****
3B: Zach Lutz, ***
LF: Lucas Duda, ***
CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, ****
RF: Fernando Martinez, ****
DH/Util: Josh Satin, ***

Three players project as possible MLB starters and I still believe Fernando Martinez could be a star. The key here is that: Evans, Turner, Lutz, and Duda are all ready to be in the majors and they will be (in all likelihood) in AAA to start the year. This means that our AAA club has quite the murderers row. At least... for AAA.

AA:
C: Salomon Manriquez, **
1B: Michael Fisher, ***
2B: Reese Havens, *****
SS: Jordany Valdespin, ****
3B: Eric Campbell, ***
LF: Sean Ratliff, ***
CF: Matt Den Dekker, *****
RF: Carlos Guzman, **
DH/Util: Brahiam Maldonado, **

A number of players to watch starting in AA. First Reese Havens who needs only to play as good as he has and stay healthy to be on the Mets in 2012. Next is Matt Den Dekker who's defense and hitting have him steadily moving up through the system. Then there's Valdespin who flashed brilliance this fall. add in a little Campbell and Ratliff and the B-Mets should hit.

A+:
C: Kai Gronauer, ****
1B: Stefan Welch, **
2B: Wilfredo Tovar, ****
SS: Wilmer Flores, *****
3B: Jeffry Marte, ****
LF: Rafael Fernandez, ***
CF: Pedro Zapata, ***
RF: Caesar Puello, *****
DH/Util: Robbie Shields, ****

Port St. Lucie will start with the uber-prospect Wilmer Flores but he won't stick. Expect Tovar to shift across to SS when he does. Caesar Puello is a potential 5-tool player, Shields can hit, Marte has power and Gronauer is VERY VERY German. I think that half this team will be in Binghamton soon.

A:
C Francisco Pena ****
1B Jeff Flagg **
2B Ray Van Gurp **
SS Rylan Sandoval ****
3B Aderlin Rodriguez *****
LF Javier Rodriguez *****
CF Darrell Cecilliani *****
RF Cory Vaughn *****
DH/Util Juan Lagares ***

The most intriguing bunch is here in Savannah. Now... I spoke to a much more known blogger who says that Vaughn will be in a higher league but I want to maximize playing time and I think Savannah is the tougher league to hit in anyway. Vaughn, Rodriguez and Rodriguez will be the best 3, 4, 5 combo this league has. Add Cecilliani leading off and hopefully a healthy Francisco Pena and the Mets might have an ultra dominant team on their hands.

In conclusion, before one goes around saying that the Mets have almost ZERO talent in the farm... remember that a couple years ago Fernando Martinez WAS our farm.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Love is in the Air

On the one hand... pitchers and catchers arrive tomorrow and baseball season for the Mets begins. On the other hand... I love my wife and she's not the world's biggest baseball fan. You just have to understand: I've been dating the Mets for a long time. I have to have priorities.

In the beginning: I became a Met fan because my father was a Mets fan. He became a Met fan because George Steinbrenner took a dump on one of his childhood heroes, Yogi Berra. The truth is, I wasn't really a Met fan... or a baseball fan until a certain guy came to NY.


The Love: Mike Piazza ended the Bonilla hangover from the 80s and made the Mets a watchable organization again. The Mets weren't perfect, but they were lovable. Mike Piazza had his AWFUL V05 commercials. Edgardo Alfonso didn't try to hit the ball until he had a full count. John Olerud wore that batting helmet in the field. Robin Ventura provided half-time shows. Even the manager would put on a disguise from time to time. It was sports love.

Lover's Quarrel: The Mets are not an easy club to love. They are dysfunctional, the owners are a joke, they haven't exactly won anything for me and the cross town rival Yankees are probably the easiest team in sports to root for. I mean... do the Mets care about me half as much as I care about them?

Loving the Mets: To love the Mets you must be patient, you must be able to take a joke, you must have a desire to see the little guy (even if he's not the little) win for a change and most importantly... you must have a slight disconnect from reality. If you can manage that... repeat after me.

I (Your Name) do solemnly swear to root for the Mets, in good times and bad, In sickness and in health, until the owners sell the team across the country and purchase the Dodgers... Those jerks.

MAZEL TOV!

Later This Week:

Despite critics, the Mets farm looks like they'll be good (at hitting): I will look at the Mets AAA, AA, A+ and A league rosters and evaluate the talent there in.

What happens to Jose? Does he get traded? Does he come back?

A look at 2012 and beyond: What lies ahead for the fiscally responsible Sandy Alderson and the Mets?

Who Will Ike Davis Become?: Is Ike Davis Adam LaRoche with better defense, Olerud without the helmet, Keith Hernandez without the mustache, or something entirely new?

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Spring Training Preview: The Battle for Bench

What could be more thrilling?

The battle to be one of 5 players selected to the 2011 New York Mets bench. A team that is expected by many to finish fourth in their division, sell off their stars and sell off their team. WOO! Who is going to be good enough to NOT be one of their 8 starting position players?

Above is a lovely graphic I put together (stealing graphics from MLB.com etc...) which will allow the average person to keep track. As names are eliminated I'll be placing a red X over their picture.

Ronny Paulino - C - 30:
Paulino isn't REALLY fighting for a bench spot. He's got a spot on the roster. HOWEVER, his face might be replaced by Josh Thole's if he has the better spring training. The reality is... Thole is a lefty and most pitchers are righties... so Paulino will likely not be the #1 catcher.
Red X Chances: 1%

Luis Castillo - 2B - 36:
Castillo IS owed $6,000,000.00 which is $5,999,995.00 more then I have in my wallet right now. He's also is a patient hitter who knows the game and can still field his position. The problem? Luis cannot field ANY other position. He also has no power and only REALLY hits well from one side of the plate.
Red X Chances: 78%

Scott Hairston - OF/1B - 31:
Scott is REALLY a corner OF but in a pinch he can man CF. I just wouldn't make a habit of it. He has become known as a timely hitter who makes the most of his ABs. He doesn't necessarily have great contact or power but I'd have some confidence in him being smart with a late inning AB in a close game.
Red X Chances: 11%

Daniel Murphy - 1B/2B/3B/LF - 26:
There are few situations in which Murphy does not make the team. One being Luis Castillo being the starter and Brad Emaus the backup. However as long as Murphy can field the position odds say that he'll be part of the solution to the 2B dilemma and at least have a role on the bench. Now... he is actually likely to win the starting job right now... so maybe I'll make him a blue and orange X or something.
Red X Chances: 18%

Willie Harris - Util - 33:
Willie can play all three OF positions, 3B, SS, and 2B and he has some speed. He's likely to make the team... even if I don't want him to. Add to this he's a lefty bat and has a little pop and he makes sense. So... why do I not want him? I want Duda... that's why. So I'm irrational and like certain players even if they fill less of a role.
Red X Chances: 16%

Justin Turner - IF - 27:
Turner has a lot against him. He and Emaus are both righties. So only one will make the team (probably) and Emaus would have to be let go if he didn't. Turner can simply be moved to AAA. What Turner DOES have going for him is the ability to play SS. Now... he's not a whiz kid at SS. However he can play the position and Murphy/Emaus/Castillo cannot. So... there is an outside chance that Turner loses out on the backup 2B job and wins the backup SS job over HU... but not a GOOD chance.
Red X Chances: 84%

Brad Emaus - 2B/3B/1B - 25:
Brad Emaus was a Rule 5 pick. That means he has to stay with the MLB club all year or be sold back to Toronto. Emaus has a GREAT eye and makes good contact with some power. He's not a GREAT fielder, but he's a smart player and can handle 2B and 3B adequately. If Castillo or Murphy with the starting job this spring... he might be the favorite for the bench role. Or... HE might win the starting job.
Red X Chances: 23%

Chin-Lung Hu - SS/2B - 27:
What does Hu bring to the table? Defense, defense, defense, defense and a unique name. What doesn't he bring? Hitting. 3 years ago a friend of mine pointed Hu out to me as a potentially big prospect but... that hasn't panned out and likely won't. Hu is the favorite to backup for Jose Reyes but as I will say until the day he's cut... Turner is the better choice!
Red X Chances: 31%

Lucas Duda - LF/RF/1B - 25:
Duda is going to AAA. I see it, you see it, the whole world sees it. Not that it's the wrong move but I don't see what Duda has left to learn. He's not going to become a better fielder. He's already a fine hitter. He will likely never be quite a starter... but we have the more positionally flexible Hairston and Harris and they make more sense.
Red X Chances: 93%

Nick Evans - LF/RF/3B/1B - 25:
Evans got a BIG demotion last year and made up for it with a big year. This season the Mets... still don't have room for him. Scott Hairston is sitting above Evans for that bench role and Emaus and Turner likely edge him out of the backup IF roles. I do think he'll be up in 2011 but not for most of the season.
Red X Chances: 86%

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

The 18 Million Dollar Question

In 2010, the Pittsburgh Pirates total payroll was just south of $35,000,000. If Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez were Pirates they’d account for over 50% of the teams total budget. As it is their 18 Million is a substantial 12% of the total Mets payroll. Consider that they are only a drop in the bucket for the Wilpons who have allegedly lost $500 Million to Bernie Madoff but it’s not like as a working adult I can look at those contracts and say, “Drop them, I would.”

I’m not a multi-millionaire and even if I were I don’t know if I’d be willing to let $18 Million go to waste. Oliver Perez has already refused to even help the situation by accepting a demotion to the minors so if he’s healthy and NOT a free agent he has to be on the 25-Man Roster. The same has not been asked of Castillo, but Castillo isn’t exactly going to get younger by returning to the minors. I bring Castillo up in this regard because I am disgusted by Perez’s refusal to make a sacrifice to help the team and I don’t know if Castillo would be willing to be creative. Rather than part with the Mets, perhaps the Mets allow Castillo to become a coach or special instructor or anything within the organization. Maybe the fact that he’s only a 3^rd of the cost made me a 3^rd as unhappy with him but I think Castillo has not been quite as negative an influence with the Mets… minus that one pop-up.

The question ends up being: What makes more sense? Let those 18 Million little pieces of paper float down into the sewer or to see if cheaper talent is also BETTER talent?

The Media has made up their mind. Perez and Castillo must go and will likely go. Baseball is a business but at a certain point winning means more than getting value out of poorly spent money. Not to mention all of the misdirected fan anger. Dropping the pair will earn Alderson a bump in the approval ratings from Met fans. However is it the player's fault they are being paid so much? I'll admit that Perez has dug his own grave here, but I think Castillo has been wrongly blamed for Omar Minaya's mistake.

What is the right course?

At this point I think Castillo and Perez just need to be dropped, but that won't happen until after this spring.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.

Who's On Second?

Biographies and Images courtesy of MLB.com

There will be an open competition in 2011 for the starting second baseman on the Mets. Incumbent, Luis Castillo, well into the twilight of his career is forced to attempt to fend off the likes of Daniel Murphy, Brad Eamus and Justin Turner or face being cut from the team. I’m going to look at the players and evaluate who has the best shot at winning and why.

Luis Castillo, 35

Luis Antonio Castillo Donato graduated from Colegio San Benito Abad in the Dominican Republic in 1991...Named the Marlins' Most Valuable Player by the South Florida Chapter of the BBWAA in 1999 and again in 2002.

For all of his faults Luis Castillo does a few things very well. He takes a walk with the best of them and can advance a runner like nobody’s business. At this point in his career he just doesn’t do much else. Luis never had power. However at one point he WAS a prolific base stealer and defensive star. That best of times was 11 years ago and all but a distant memory for all of us. Although… if I look back to 2009 and stop myself from seeing the epic “Dropped Ball” I see numbers that I’d be happy with from a second baseman. So… if healthy… I have to say that he still has a legit shot.

Daniel Murphy, 26

Daniel T. Murphy graduated from Englewood High School (FL) in 2003...Hit .395 during his senior year...Earned All-Gateway honors as a senior, junior and sophomore in high school...Also was a four-year letter winner for the Englewood Swim Team...Named the 2006 Atlantic Sun Player of the Year and was named First Team All-Conference after finishing second in the A-Sun with a .398 batting average and 55 RBI while playing for Jacksonville University...During his sophomore season, he hit .410 during conference play to lead the Dolphins...Finished his freshman season (2004) with a .377 average to lead the team.

Murphy would have auditioned for the Mets in 2010 to become the new 2B if not for the Nationals minor leaguers playing dirty. What do we know about Murphy? He can hit the ball but doesn’t have 1B power. He CANNOT play LF. He can play first pretty well but is a little too impatient. He’s played some 2B now in the winter leagues and hasn’t butchered the position. I feel like he is the odds on favorite to win the nod this spring.

Brad Emaus, 25

Bradley Mark Emaus... Single... His father, Mark, played baseball at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University... Majored in media arts at Tulane University... A four-year letterman at East Coweta... Helped guide the Indians to a combined 92-25 record in four years, with four playoff appearances and a state runner-up finish as a junior... Named a Street & Smith All-American in 2004, was drafted in the 18th round by the Atlanta Braves... Named team MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner as a senior after hitting .509 with eight homers, 60 RBI and 40 stolen bases... As a junior, named Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Newman Times Herald Player of the Year and earned a spot on the AFLAC All-America team after hitting .490 with 14 homers and a 1.100 slugging percentage... Claimed a pair of gold medals with the AAU Junior Olympics and was named MVP of the CABA World Series... off the diamond, was a member of the National Honor Society.

Chances that Brad makes the team are VERY good. Brad has the Alderson approach to hitting (OBP) and was a Rule 5 pick and needs to stay with the MLB club to stay on the team. He’s a righty so even if Murphy wins the job, he’s likely to win the job as the back-up. Emaus has been described as no defensive whiz. He’s a smart hitter, a smart base runner, a smart fielder and a MLB ready player. Emaus will make the team unless Turner astounds or he is not any good.

Justin Turner, 26

Graduated from Mayfair High School...Played collegiately at Cal State Fullerton.

Justin Turner was good in the minors last year but was he good enough to beat the others. Turner has the toughest road to the team. He can be sent to AAA while Emaus cannot. He’s not a lefty while Murphy is. He’s not owed 6 Million dollars like Castillo. Turner has to flat out win the position this spring which I won’t put entirely past him. If he misses the starting job Emaus/Murphy probably have the lock on backing up the starter but that doesn’t 100% rule Justin Turner out. Chin-Lung Hu has to watch out, because though he doesn’t field it well, Turner DOES field SS and could be a different sort of back-up.

This is Phlavio Phega and, if it relates to the Mets, I have an opinion.